Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:
Back.
What do you think about new covection firing off of Erika?
*atmo goes away to watch the Saints preseason game to see if they put Patrap, in all his Suite glory, on TV*
**atmo hopes Pat wore a shirt to the game**
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Jimena sending TX/LA a gift??

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
wouldn't surprise me in the least to see erika latch on to the ull in the caribbean to her sw and make another go at it.

shearmap
This has been the 'kindest' tropical season I have ever seen.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting midgulfmom:
Yes I am buying it! Thank you. It could be worse. I won't go there. LOL
Ha.. us gals gotta stick together! ;)
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791. JLPR
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A little convective blowup close to the center of 'Erika' but I think it's just a last death rattle of the system. Keeping an eye on it but still expect it to die.


I keep posting this so that everyone sees how sad Erika looks =P
PR Radar
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
UUHH Look at the new convection firing right over the center of Ericka!! She is coming back!Link
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Those are typo's by the way. Not spelling errors (hoping someone is buying all this)
Yes I am buying it! Thank you. It could be worse. I won't go there. LOL
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting Grothar:


Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.


Not nearly enough to have a conversation off the blog... One of my best friends is from Haiti and he speaks Kreol all the time. I kind of picked up some things, listening to him speak with family and friends.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10819
Quoting foggymyst:
ok.. in laymans term..erika is dead(or soon?

In layman's terms, almost not worth talking about apparently.
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I was looking at the historical map of tropical depressions that passed within 400 miles of TD erika.

Link

Does the current weather conditions make it unlikely that TD Erika would follow a path similar to the ones on the map?

Thanks?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 221
Quoting atmoaggie:

And you knew this when typing in your handle, apparently. Smart.
bahahurican without the caps might have led people to call you hahu.

Should have gone with AtmoAggie, eh? (I hate the shift key sometimes, though)

your handle is just fine the way it is. My trained eye automatically picked out Aggie - we bled maroon in my house growing up!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

And you knew this when typing in your handle, apparently. Smart.
bahahurican without the caps might have led people to call you hahu.

Should have gone with AtmoAggie, eh? (I hate the shift key sometimes, though)

Who knew that, when making that quick decision & typing in a handle, that it is CARVED IN STONE, and CANNOT be modified. We are stuck with our caps, or lack thereof.
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Quoting midgulfmom:

Hi, I am sorry if I offended you but I understood your name but for some reason typed automaggie as your name in a post. We laughed at my error and then come to think of it and your avatar (kind of small and face covered)was unsure if you were male or female really. You enlarged your avatar to show your alligator headed son at Audubon (really cute!)but this information did not clarify your gender. But I have gathered you are a male. I thank you and have definitely said too much... Thank you, thank you, and I'm a silly girl.

Don't worry about it.
If that offended me, I sure wouldn't say as much as I do here. My feathers just don't ruffle in the blogs. From watching others, I can tell it is not worth the wasted heartbeats.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Ok, so now I'm a confused, silly, bad speller. LOL

eh, it could be worse..
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The invest formerly known as Erika seems to be calming down finally. On the other hand, the CMC run is rather interesting...and I see the NHC found the yellow crayon.
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funkyloopdance
She's doing her funky chicken due west now, according to nhc at 8 p.m....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 65.3W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
I'm actually a preety good speller but it's like that paragraph they show you with all the leters in the wrong order in the words but your mind still reads it correctly anyway. I guess my mind corrected it to maggie. Yeah, that's the ticket...
Those are typo's by the way. Not spelling errors (hoping someone is buying all this)
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
The living dead never tell. But I'd wear garlic just in case..


good call, except I live in Indiana, so, no worries
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Quoting Grothar:
If you go to the NOAA site and look at the VISIBLE animation. It shows that the convection jumped right on top of the swirl. You all have to see it. Sorry I can't link, but most of you know where it is. If any of you can link it for the other I would appreciate it.
This is one "jumpy" system....

Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.
Agree.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting homelesswanderer:


What's GFS got against the islands? Gesh! Lol.


It's just trying to keep everyone on the blog excited - that's it's job "Gotta Forecast Something" - LOL!!
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Quoting tornadodude:


well is she coming to theaters soon? lol
The living dead never tell. But I'd wear garlic just in case..
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ok.. in laymans term..erika is dead(or soon?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Atmo, since u got here people have been calling u "maggie"..... it's the moag, which all the bad spellers interpret implicitly as a bad spelling..... lol hence maggie . . .
I'm actually a preety good speller but it's like that paragraph they show you with all the leters in the wrong order in the words but your mind still reads it correctly anyway. I guess my mind corrected it to maggie. Yeah, that's the ticket...
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Quoting serialteg:


I only get a few frames on the anim tho :/


From the few frames it looks like a broad & weak CoC trying to form just N of Guadlope. Other observations please?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Lost myself.

Don't worry about sorry.
What are you confused about?

1. The pic is not me, but one of my sons. I am not a 4-year-old.
2. In supercell thunderstorms in the plains, there have been storms that split and maintain 2 separate cells. They have been detected by radar.
3. Tropical systems apparently have done this under very high shear conditions (much higher than that needed for the severe weather in the plains). BUT, this has only been done in modeling, to my knowledge, and would be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the real world.
4. I am not maggie. Once upon a time, Atmospheric Science student at Texas A&M, a school whose students are fondly known as Aggies due to it's Agricultural College heritage. AtmoAggie.

Hi, I am sorry if I offended you but I understood your name but for some reason typed automaggie as your name in a post. We laughed at my error and then come to think of it and your avatar (kind of small and face covered)was unsure if you were male or female really. You enlarged your avatar to show your alligator headed son at Audubon (really cute!)but this information did not clarify your gender. But I have gathered you are a male. I thank you and have definitely said too much... Thank you, thank you, and I'm a silly girl.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
She's now the living dead.


well is she coming to theaters soon? lol
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Quoting tornadodude:


how is the "thing" formerly known as Erika doing? haha
She's now the living dead.
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There is no 8pm advisory for Erika because intermediate advisories are only issued when watches and warnings are in effect.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Quoting Grothar:


Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.
oooo love those accents :)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Lost myself.

Don't worry about sorry.
What are you confused about?

1. The pic is not me, but one of my sons. I am not a 4-year-old.
2. In supercell thunderstorms in the plains, there have been storms that split and maintain 2 separate cells. They have been detected by radar.
3. Tropical systems apparently have done this under very high shear conditions (much higher than that needed for the severe weather in the plains). BUT, this has only been done in modeling, to my knowledge, and would be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the real world.
4. I am not maggie. Once upon a time, Atmospheric Science student at Texas A&M, a school whose students are fondly known as Aggies due to it's Agricultural College heritage. AtmoAggie.


Thanks Maggie!!!

lol



Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Erika is amusing.


Hope nobody got flooded out; everyone's cisterns are full. No real damage done.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting InTheCone:
18z GFS

Lots of fun to watch, probably won't come to much - lol!!


What's GFS got against the islands? Gesh! Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
For what its worth...
You can see the convection buildup on the south side of the circulation South of Puerto Rico on the Puerto Rico radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting atmoaggie:

I just did.
My picture? A her? What?!?
Atmo, since u got here people have been calling u "maggie"..... it's the moag, which all the bad spellers interpret implicitly as a bad spelling..... lol hence maggie . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet-

bon travay


Dak,
you speak Kreol? We can have a private conversation off blog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Who? ;)


how is the "thing" formerly known as Erika doing? haha
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Dpass is late!
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Quoting tornadodude:
Good evening everyone, how is Erika doing?
Who? ;)
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Quoting bwi:
Martinique radar animation shows the rotating storms around the islands pretty well.


I only get a few frames on the anim tho :/
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753. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (T0912)
9:00 AM JST September 4 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dujuan (990 hPa) located at 17.4N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.7N 131.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.7N 133.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 25.7N 135.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Good evening everyone, how is Erika doing?
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Quoting weathermancer:


Has it ever happened to a tropical feature... where two circulations (regardless of what level of atmosphere) have birthed two separate storms - born from a single entity?

Anticyclonic counter storms on land I can understand... but two tropical ocean bound COC's moving far enough away from each other that two are created moving away from each other??

BTW... interesting discussions last night around post # 2000.



I thought so ..
And it was answered here again tonight
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Just an FYI...I still have no mail.

Plus, Erika is not in the best of shape.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
aha, makes more sense than the abstract I found there last night, eh? lol


Has it ever happened to a tropical feature... where two circulations (regardless of what level of atmosphere) have birthed two separate storms - born from a single entity?

Anticyclonic counter storms on land I can understand... but two tropical ocean bound COC's moving far enough away from each other that two are created moving away from each other??

BTW... interesting discussions last night around post # 2000.

Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Futuremet-

bon travay
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10819

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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