Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 897 - 847

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Ok, I know wind sheer will kill a system,but cant it change quickly? Also if you take a look at the satt loop you will see her heart is beating and its growing.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. 46 on the 16th. Dang cradle robber. I'm a young 42. Lol.


Let's just say I saw the original movie in a theater and we shall leave at that! lol What do you think of the recent flare-up of convection around Erika. It has peaked a little interest on the blog. I have been mentioning it since around 4:30 today and just now getting some interest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika is making a comeback or is just me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropics21:
Quoting troy1993:
Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again.

Why would You want a destructive storm to endanger peoples lives and property? now that's sick




Agreed, that is indeed quite troubling that he feels that way.

I do want a lot of storms to track though, but only ones like Bill. I'm hoping that if that African wave develops into Fred, we'll get a fish spinner from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
893. JLPR
Quoting hurricane23:
weak llc with ex erika has all but dissipated at this hr in my view.all is quiet around peak which is good news.

adrian


I agree
not much left
Puerto Rico Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night, everyone. Tomorrow I get to sleep late - no Erika to monitor.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
Quoting lavinia:
Could someone please explain to me why the track for Jimena makes a sharp turn to the left? It looks like she's rebounding off a wall!


Mid-level ridging builds in behind the trough that pushed her northward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lavinia:
Could someone please explain to me why the track for Jimena makes a sharp turn to the left? It looks like she's rebounding off a wall!


It's the only way to get to Hawaii from there..

Steering currents would be the real answer though. I;m sure someone can post a map a lot faster than I can find an Epac steering map.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
Quoting troy1993:
Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again.

Why would You want a destructive storm to endanger peoples lives and property? now that's sick


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking about duel genesis: Now that I think about it, I've seen one TC spawn another. It sometimes happens with "fishspinners." The future parent gets caught by a trough and races north faster than its southerly inflow. That inflow sometimes forms it's own center when the parent gets far enough away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I seem to vaguely recall several instances where one Twave produced two different TCs, usually w/ one splitting off to the north and the other later forming west of that point. I can't think of a specific example right off the top of my head, though there are likely some within the last 10 years.....


Last year, the tropical wave that produced Gustav also produced Karina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could someone please explain to me why the track for Jimena makes a sharp turn to the left? It looks like she's rebounding off a wall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
832. Skyepony 1:20 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
Still vacationing. Figured I'd give Erika a quick check.. Gotta run but brought the model preformance~ humans edged out over the models today with the offical track closest but still broad side of a barn..

Hi Skyepony, was wunderin' where you wuz. With the HH's convaluted flights into Erika, we needed some guidance.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11143
Quoting Grothar:


Didn't think anyone would get StormW's reference. Boy, your husband must be as old as I am.lol


Lol. 46 on the 16th. Dang cradle robber. I'm a young 42. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Nah, that's sooooo 19th century. :)


Actually, it's happening now...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/15/gov-rick-perry-texas-coul_n_187490.html

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
882. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
I kinda understand wind sheer maps but not really. What kind of wind sheer due W, and how often can wind sheer change?


30-40 knots of SW shear to it's west....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Dakster:


Apparently someone wasn't paying attention when I detailed my Hurricane security plan the other night or they wouldn't make statements like that...

ROFLMAO... Besides isn't Texas trying to become its own country?


Lol. Nah, that's sooooo 19th century. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Hubby had to explain that to me. He does a good Jerry Lewis. :)


Didn't think anyone would get StormW's reference. Boy, your husband must be as old as I am.lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Outislander:

You should be happy instead of complaining ... as a person living in the Caribbean I'm always relieved when a storm weakens or passes out in the ocean.
Which "out" island r u living on? (if I may ask)

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
878. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Hey Ike, that shear map doesn't look good for Erika at all... Unless she decides to go BACK to Africa....


LOL.


Quoting JLPR:


lol its only hope is to the SE lol xD


Yup.

There's no high to protect in anymore.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. I know how to unite y'all.

How bout them COWBOYS!! Lol. ;)


Apparently someone wasn't paying attention when I detailed my Hurricane security plan the other night or they wouldn't make statements like that...

ROFLMAO... Besides isn't Texas trying to become its own country?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
weak llc with ex erika has all but dissipated at this hr in my view.all is quiet around peak which is good news.

adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting java162:


qui sa? moon la ka parle creol?


You've got mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You're doing Jerry Lewis now?


Lol. Hubby had to explain that to me. He does a good Jerry Lewis. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting IKE:


Take a look at what's ahead as it moves west...WNW....NW...

Looking at that, I'm amazed we even have a chance of getting "Twave Erika" in the SE Bahamas this weekend.... that's a serious shear belt.

I think I'm beginning to get ur point abt the El Nino effects, Ike. It does reinforce my thinking from the beginning of the season that October may not be as active as usual. OTOH, everything seems to be running a bit late, so we may get the named storms, just not the stronger storms....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
Quoting troy1993:
Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again.

You should be happy instead of complaining ... as a person living in the Caribbean I'm always relieved when a storm weakens or passes out in the ocean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Take a look at what's ahead as it moves west...WNW....NW...

I kinda understand wind sheer maps but not really. What kind of wind sheer due W, and how often can wind sheer change?
Quoting StormW:


Hey lady!


You're doing Jerry Lewis now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
866. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


Take a look at what's ahead as it moves west...WNW....NW...



lol its only hope is to the SE lol xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Take a look at what's ahead as it moves west...WNW....NW...



Hey Ike, that shear map doesn't look good for Erika at all... Unless she decides to go BACK to Africa....
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
864. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
The fat lady aint sang yet people!! Your rippin to soon!!


Take a look at what's ahead as it moves west...WNW....NW...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Grothar:


You just surprised me is all. Good spelling.


Thanks...

I can now appreciate your English even more so.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
Quoting weathermancer:


Yes... anytime in recorded history??
I seem to vaguely recall several instances where one Twave produced two different TCs, usually w/ one splitting off to the north and the other later forming west of that point. I can't think of a specific example right off the top of my head, though there are likely some within the last 10 years.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
The fat lady aint sang yet people!! Your rippin to soon!!
857. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


I agree TAZ. RIP Erika. It's finished...done...bye...next....see ya...over...adios....see you in 2015....


xD look at the CV wave
we might have another storm to stalk soon lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
midgulfmom, if you don't change your subject i'm gonna have to put you on ignore. not everyone finds gender confusion fascinating, particularly on a weather blog.
We were discussing a weather related question and an innocent misunderstanding took place which was funny. I think you came in late and misunderstood because you didn't have the history of the conversation. It was all in fun and not at all what you are implying it to be. Sorry if you are offended, ignore if you must but I do appreciate your weather info.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
Quoting Barbados:


The sub tropical ridge is forcasted to weekend from this weekend thus anything forming on the Atlantic will pass well north of all islands.


how sad!! i could do with more holidays like today.
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 300
Quoting Dakster:


Not nearly enough to have a conversation off the blog... One of my best friends is from Haiti and he speaks Kreol all the time. I kind of picked up some things, listening to him speak with family and friends.



You just surprised me is all. Good spelling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Actually Erika heard that Karen got this reputation for running around with no clothes on, so she figured she could stay around just as long trying on different dresses every day.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
851. caneswatch
1:29 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
Quoting iluvjess:
What is that that the CMC brings over my house in about 96 hours?


Does anybody have the link?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
850. Dakster
1:29 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Go Saints!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Yeeeeahhhh.... Dolphins 10, Saints - 0...

Sorry, you're in Dolphin and Hurricane Territory...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
849. DocBen
1:28 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
New 'real' center SE of Puerto Rico?
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
848. fire635
1:28 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
Quoting troy1993:
Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again.


and this is bad because......
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
847. Lizpr
1:28 AM GMT on September 04, 2009
Quoting Relix:


...and the NHC too! =P! This will leave a bad taste in the mouth of Puerto Ricans. It was hyped by the media as a sure hit. Next time they probably won't listen to warnings at all. Real shame too. Oh well... just going to wait and see if I get some rain at least.


I realy want some rain the heat it's crazy
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

Viewing: 897 - 847

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds