Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:

you will get some rain.
i promise.
just won't say when!
I know. Just hope it's soon.
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KoritheMan IM me
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My Public Advisory for Tropical Storm Dujuan 11PM
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Quoting Grothar:
I have an early flight tomorrow. It has been fun as usual. Stay well all and see you in a few days.

See you Sweetie. Have a nice trip :)
IAOHT
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11143
Quoting Grothar:


the one about Norm, perhaps?


Lol. You saw that huh?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Grothar:
I have an early flight tomorrow. It has been fun as usual. Stay well all and see you in a few days.


I'm out for a while too. Be back later. Take care Grothar thanks for the laughs. :) Bye y'all.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We more than need the rain. Had a little today in one part of the island but really need a lot more.

you will get some rain.
i promise.
just won't say when!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11143
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ah, don't worry bout it Grothar. Nobody got my "Cheers" references the other night. Lol. Storm, apparently "Hey Lady!" was a famous Jerry Lewis saying.


the one about Norm, perhaps?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
Quoting Chicklit:
Erika looking geriatric at this point.

what a beneficent season it has been!
now caymans need rain next.
We more than need the rain. Had a little today in one part of the island but really need a lot more.
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I have an early flight tomorrow. It has been fun as usual. Stay well all and see you in a few days.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
your a great American. i love my country too!! i also like rick perry. he's a good man and a good governor.
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Erika looking geriatric at this point but i am not convinced she is done. may get to the fountain of youth in the caribbean somewhere...who knows.

what a beneficent season it has been!
caymans need rain next.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11143
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Lady! My goodness, if that was not your intent, I apologize. Perhaps it lay somewhere in your subconscious mind and just came out. If I have to explain it, I shall truly feel embarrassed.


Ah, don't worry bout it Grothar. Nobody got my "Cheers" references the other night. Lol. Storm, apparently "Hey Lady!" was a famous Jerry Lewis saying.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting StormW:


She's under a diffluent flow aloft now...that will help enhance convection. The waxing and waning...courtesy of the MJO (downward motion)
Is this helping or hurting Erika?
i would check back in a few hours before i call her off. she likes the night alot. she has been falling apart during the day and flaring up at night. it her mo. lol! have a good night all. go saints!
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Quoting StormW:


Looking at things if they hold true...no. NHC has a good track going right now. Still could come up through the western Bahamas
Interesting u said this, Storm. I just listened to a local met who is still expecting to see ex-Erica progress, as a Twave, through the country between Sunday and Tuesday.

I popped back in to add that we've had overcast skies and morning and evening showers due to the complex front situation in the area. It's rather strange weather for this early in September; usually it's Twaves and afternoon POPs for us for the first week or two....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
927. 996tt
Quoting Chicklit:
midgulfmom, if you don't change your subject i'm gonna have to put you on ignore. not everyone finds gender confusion fascinating, particularly on a weather blog.


Haha, chill out
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
Quoting StormW:


??????????


Hey, Lady! My goodness, if that was not your intent, I apologize. Perhaps it lay somewhere in your subconscious mind and just came out. If I have to explain it, I shall truly feel embarrassed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
Chicklit, No harm done. I felt bad about "maggie" because I typed it without even realizing it until someone pointed it out. I had to laugh at myself because I am faced daily with my middle-aged mind which if I don't find humorous I find scary! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
so stormw do you think the wave thats off africa will make it to the antilles or not?
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Quoting StormW:


She's under a diffluent flow aloft now...that will help enhance convection. The waxing and waning...courtesy of the MJO (downward motion)


Oh!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
Quoting StormW:


Welcome. Sorry it took so long..PC locked up...took like forever for it to knock it off.


Some of us got a good laugh on your Jerry Lewis take off, earlier.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
Bye Erika, I held you up as long as i could!LOL
915. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thank you, looks like your right RIP


Don't take my word at it. Just a blogger.
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Quoting Grothar:


Let's just say I saw the original movie in a theater and we shall leave at that! lol What do you think of the recent flare-up of convection around Erika. It has peaked a little interest on the blog. I have been mentioning it since around 4:30 today and just now getting some interest.


Yep, I noticed that. Good call. I think she's planning on getting dressed again for the evening. And just to make everyone nuts again she's got two centers. Lol. She might finally take that northerly turn looking at the visible of the BH above her. Then again she may be on her way to the W Caribbean. She has been interesting to say the least. Lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
913. JLPR
right now the CV wave is looking better than Erika =P

The CV wave has caused South winds on the coast of Africa and North winds in one of the CV islands...now that is a LLC =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting IKE:
Speed up this Caribbean loop. You can see the shear blowing the clouds NE through the Caribbean.


I saw the link, good point Ike. It has flattened her little face a bit in the last frame. Let's hope it maintains, shall we!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
Quoting StormW:


Looking at things if they hold true...no. NHC has a good track going right now. Still could come up through the western Bahamas



Thank you for your response :)
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 221
Quoting midgulfmom:
We were discussing a weather related question and an innocent misunderstanding took place which was funny. I think you came in late and misunderstood because you didn't have the history of the conversation. It was all in fun and not at all what you are implying it to be. Sorry if you are offended, ignore if you must but I do appreciate your weather info.

sorry. my attention span is short.
been a long week.
i called him maggie too.
Thought he was a she-dwarf (his prev. pic)
:) TGTF
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11143
Quoting IKE:
Speed up this Caribbean loop. You can see the shear blowing the clouds NE through the Caribbean.
Thank you, looks like your right RIP
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh my ... Sigh. Ummm, that was so a few months ago? Lol. Well, this adopted Texan loves her state and her country. I am an American Girl as Tom would say. :)


It is actually coming back up again, you have a successionist candidate for Governor running for office. One that is promising to push the matter...

You may want to start paying attention to your states politics...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
906. IKE
Speed up this Caribbean loop. You can see the shear blowing the clouds NE through the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Looking at things if they hold true...no. NHC has a good track going right now. Still could come up through the western Bahamas


What is your opinion of the current flare-up of convection. Dying gasp, perhaps? I have been seeing all evening.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25086
BTW - not saying the remnants can't come back, but I don't see Erika strengthening back into a TS in the next several hours...

Although maybe StormW can shed some light on the subject.


STORMW?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
Goodnight Erika.
Good morning Fred.

somehow that doesn't... forget it.


Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
Quoting Dakster:


Actually, it's happening now...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/15/gov-rick-perry-texas-coul_n_187490.html



Oh my ... Sigh. Ummm, that was so a few months ago? Lol. Well, this adopted Texan loves her state and her country. I am an American Girl as Tom would say. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Looks like it!!
Quoting antonio28:
Erika is making a comeback or is just me?


It's just you...

I don't see this comeback, can you provide a link or point of reference? AVN on the NHC Floater doesn't show a comeback, it is showing Erika going through a slow painful death.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10028
Ok, I know wind sheer will kill a system,but cant it change quickly? Also if you take a look at the satt loop you will see her heart is beating and its growing.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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