Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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I think the NHC pulled the plug to fast but they could be right, Erika may never come back. Yet some models disagree with the NHC showing Erika lifting north and out of the Carribean into an anticyclone next to the East Coast. Anything can happen, I guess just keep at least on eye on former Erika, I personally feel she could make a comeback as models suggest. I'm writing songs, composing music so I can't stay on long. A songwriters gotta do what a songwriters gotta do.
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Press the only conclusion i can come to is he must be Family
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Quoting atmoaggie:

THC. And lots of it.


mmmm THC
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987. IKE
Quoting iceman55:
2009 so bored


As far as tracking storms...I agree, it's been delightfully boring.

I wasn't convinced about El Nino and it's affects. I am now after witnessing 3 months of system after system struggling with the elements. Bill, excluded.
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Yep, she is finally over with. Done. African wave looks impressive with a definite banding and outflow. However convection is lacking over the center. Important if any intensification is to occur. Go Boston Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics and Bruins.
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...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 16.8°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
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No serious damage and no deaths from Erika! Great news.
Member Since: July 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
Quoting DestinJeff:
been out for awhile, and I know the models have been having a hard time ... but what in the world is going on with the trek north from GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and NGPS ... not to mention the CMC energy that peels off and gets to SC???

what in the world are they seeing?

THC. And lots of it.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting DestinJeff:
been out for awhile, and I know the models have been having a hard time ... but what in the world is going on with the trek north from GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and NGPS ... not to mention the CMC energy that peels off and gets to SC???

what in the world are they seeing?

The GFDL, HWRF, and NGPS have been doing that for a while. But now, after predicting the death of Erika for a while, the GFS decided to join them? o.0
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Still got the northerlies out in front...but Erika is done. (I think)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Man did the NHC wanted to unload Erika quickly, jmo.
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the WU Admins have the patience of Job...
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we no longer have ERIKA



RIP RIP RIP oh and yes RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
972. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

ERIKA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR. IN ADDITION...RAOB FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BY TRACING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF EVEN STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLED AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE ALL THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT
COULD REDEVELOP. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
DEFINED...CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
RISING AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...ERIKA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
REMNANT LOW...AND COULD DEGENERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.

THE REMANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD STILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 16.8N 65.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 67.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Miami mets states NHC no longer tracking Erika
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967. IKE
RIP...over.

ERIKA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 16.8N 65.6W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
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So NHC says Erika is done last advisory I am not convinced. What you guys think?
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009090312&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
what happened to the spin in the gom?
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"I don't know...let me take a look."

Ok. Thanks... looks to me like its some remnants of Jemena.
AAAARRRGGGHHH!!!
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Storm, what is the CMC bringing into AL in about 96 hours?
What's up with the GFS model now?
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Quoting Grothar:


I followed by saying that Diane always followed with Norman. I don't miss much, contrary to what my wife may say.


Suuuurrrre. That's what my hubby says too. Lol. Ok really going this time. Bye.
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Quoting Chicklit:

See you Sweetie. Have a nice trip :)
IAOHT


Nite Chiklit, take care of that little pooch. Wow. This is like being on the Waltons. Good night John Boy, Good Night Erin

GOOD NIGHT ALL. Please stay well and watch those barbs to each other. It is not nice.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
jimena drifting SSE through the baja due to weak steering currents and land friction. New bursts over the COC, we could see a second strengthening despite the moderate shear.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Which "out" island r u living on? (if I may ask)


Eleuthera (the most part of the year, some months in Europe). And you? In the Bahamas too, I suppose ...
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Lady! My goodness, if that was not your intent, I apologize. Perhaps it lay somewhere in your subconscious mind and just came out. If I have to explain it, I shall truly feel embarrassed.
Been there done that! Tonight. :X
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. You saw that huh?


I followed by saying that Diane always followed with Norman. I don't miss much, contrary to what my wife may say.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
Quoting Chicklit:

you will get some rain.
i promise.
just won't say when!
I know. Just hope it's soon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.