Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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So if that pans out and you have a remnant low in that area, is there no chance of that low redeveloping?

I'm not "wishcasting". Not by a long shot. I just wanted to ask since everyone is saying that if it takes that path then it will be completely gone in 5 days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because of all the land interaction Erika should probably be dead in about 5 days unless it takes a more northerly track:

If you all remember my post about 4 hours ago, this is the track that I have beeb predicting since yesterday at noon time. I do not agreed with the intensity of the NHC this storm will come back and will become at least a CAT 1 storm
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Quoting jeffs713:

lol. One of the most unusual HH tracks I've seen.

BTW, thank you for posting the obs here... I can't see them from work.


If you use this link... you can see all of the graphics from work very easily... its updates at the same time as my Blog one. Its actually easier to see all of the graphics because I can do more with the presentation.
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Stilgar, do we have wormsign?


Usul, we have wormsign the likes of which even God has never seen.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
After analyzing the Hurricane Hunter data for the past couple hours, it appears that we indeed do have a new circulation center pretty much covered with convection somewhere around 16.8N and 59W. The Hurricane Hunters have been sending in very good data and it appears that Erika may be trying to regather itself as they did report some decent tropical storm force winds near 45-50 mph winds. But the data does show that Erika remains rather disorganized as the system isn't really stacked which has been caused by some isolated wind shear.


Not even close to what the NHC said
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Quoting ConchHondros:
Yeah WS moved out of his moms basement and left the shower curtain...too, bad no more "goober beefcake" to make coke fly out of my nose...burns a tad. Pat...Flood...Gulf???


An insteresting development, biut there are numerous limitiations to a cut-off low going trop in the GOM...room to maneuver is the biggest drawback

Goober beefcake **shoulders trembling from suppressed laughter**
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because of all the land interaction Erika should probably be dead in about 5 days unless it takes a more northerly track:

Yep shes toast. If she would have tracked further N then she would of had a chance. DR will tear up her weak LLC.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


you said you were a weather student, didn't you?
Oh, I see ,you thought I was talking about the poster with that same name.
No Sir, you were mistaken.
oh im sorry.
Quoting BobinTampa:


you certainly spell better than he does.
lol
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because of all the land interaction Erika should probably be dead in about 5 days unless it takes a more northerly track:


Yep, land interaction and wind shear IF it's correct, but confidence is low. If it goes north, I feel it could regenerate. People still need to watch Erika, but again not panic, it's far from being a threat to anyone at this time. The naked swirl is NOT the actual center, it's a fake swirl as Masters pointed out this morning. This storm is so unvertically stacked, it's causing a couple of centers lol.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Very smart of NHC to kill it off in 4 days. If they had included a day 5, Florida might have been in the cone, causing mass blog chaos.
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You too Taco!
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Here is the new track .
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey everybody, REFRESH and look at #347

If that happens, then GFS will have earned it's stripes for a while.
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Flood I am pulling a Sgt Stedenko...changing from code 3 to 347
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Quoting scottsvb:
Ok Miamihurricanes= Weather Student... you gave it away when you said CCHS was right "My Friend" He always uses that quote.

Also Ive known CCHS for years.. he makes these wild statements...lol...

wow, im not weatherstudent, im older then he is so he stole what i say i always say "my friend". I'm 26, i dunno about him, he looks like 21, imo
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Tropical Storm, No Change In Organization, Multiple Centers Around One Mean Center. Track shift slightly south more in line with the TCVN. Remnant low at the 5 day mark.



Do I Get A Cookie Or What?
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370. Relix
As a depression in PR. Nice. =P
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Yeah WS moved out of his moms basement and left the shower curtain...too, bad no more "goober beefcake" to make coke fly out of my nose...burns a tad. Pat...Flood...Gulf???
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Quoting reedzone:
Sorry but CCHS Weatherman was pretty much on line with what he said, he had no reason to get bashed like that.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7
WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

Good job! :)


No he wasnt...omg.. he said it was forming under the CDO near 59.5 and 17.4 or something like that...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
last night i was lurking because my account was not 12 hours old so i couldn't post but he said that he never was coming back...I don't think i am like weatherstudent


you certainly spell better than he does.
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366. IKE
Discussion reads like they held it as a TS because of the winds in the thunderstorm complex.

"THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY."..........


I guess Erika had a baby. Erika Jr.?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Because of all the land interaction Erika should probably be dead in about 5 days unless it takes a more northerly track:
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
last night i was lurking because my account was not 12 hours old so i couldn't post but he said that he never was coming back...I don't think i am like weatherstudent


you said you were a weather student, didn't you?
Oh, I see ,you thought I was talking about the poster with that same name.
No Sir, you were mistaken.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Trying to find the COC is making the HH pilot look like he is on drugs or drunk.. he is all over the sky



I notice you added the Hebert box to that graphic...remember, now, that that particluar brand of voodoo only owrks in hindsight and only when the storm is strong (LOL)
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"THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE."

Is this even still a tropical cyclone? "overall cyclonic envelope"???
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361. CUBWF
Upss! Looks like I'm wrong. Let see what the future brings. They have been sooo wrong two. LOL
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Sorry but CCHS Weatherman was pretty much on line with what he said, he had no reason to get bashed like that.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7
WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

Good job! :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Hey everybody, REFRESH and look at #347
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*count laughs* 5, count them, 5 days until Erika dissipates....ah ah ah ah *thunder strike*
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Trying to find the COC is making the HH pilot look like he is on drugs or drunk.. he is all over the sky


lol. One of the most unusual HH tracks I've seen.

BTW, thank you for posting the obs here... I can't see them from work.
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Ok Miamihurricanes= Weather Student... you gave it away when you said CCHS was right "My Friend" He always uses that quote.

Also Ive known CCHS for years.. he makes these wild statements...lol...

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Like I said earlier, the one on the left.
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There is like 3 or 4 suspect LLCs right now. This storm is pathetic and on the verge of becoming an open wave. Erika better do something quick and make up her mind. If tonight she cant regroup shes toast.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Welcome. We can always use another Weather Student on here.
Your avatar reminded me, where is Canesrule today?
last night i was lurking because my account was not 12 hours old so i couldn't post but he said that he never was coming back...I don't think i am like weatherstudent
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting Baybuddy:
Let's just wait and see...like Erika, my wife is pretty erratic between cycles.


LMAO

Hey there Baybuddy good to see you on here....
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Quoting IKE:
...ERIKA NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

Naked swirl is the center.


Yep and still moving West or slightly South of West and not anywhere near the forecast points! Mind of her own that's for sure!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Trying to find the COC is making the HH pilot look like he is on drugs or drunk.. he is all over the sky


Quick, turn reft! No I mean light.
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WTNT41 KNHC 022045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE
PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF
THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
ERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44
KT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE
STORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 250 MB OVER ERIKA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR
INCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.

THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.4N 61.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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St. Simon, greetings from another SE Georgian, thanks for the informative post, one of the few this afternoon. Erika's uncertainty may be making the pros confused, but the casters here are about to riot, since everyone KNOWS they are right not the other 4 or 5 forecasts being thrown around.
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Quoting Floodman:


With the storm, we will set family aginast family and only the Padishah Emperor and House Harkonnen will profit....MUAHAHAHAHAHA!


..."Up on yer feet,Moods are for women and Cattle...
Note the Pressures Mid-Gulf Man"..!
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...The reason for Erika reminding me of Bertha is simply her meandering around with a big fat belly full of precipitation! Big ole cow, she was. We'll see about Erika. Hopefully, she'll drop her bounty on the islands, which need rain, and then dissipate somewhere in the mountains of Hispaniola without causing too much trouble!
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Quoting KimberlyB:

Check the name. That would be ma'am. Or chick or broad or hun or babe or just plain Kim, but not sir. ; )


A "Dune" reference! Nice.

Now, I'm reading everyone's varying opinion's on the models, but I was curious as to which model has been used the longest?





The only person in here to comment on that...aside from me, and we all know what a tosspot I am...
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341. IKE
...ERIKA NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

Naked swirl is the center.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
NHC 5pm update is out
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
...and today's blog is sponsored by the letter "V" - for voodoo

Ah ah ah *halting noises made by the Count*
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5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.4°N 61.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

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Erika still a TS at 5..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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