Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Jeff Spicoli: People on 'ludes should not try to forecast!
Dude! That's my skull!
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Quoting futuremet:


Claudette formed from a surface trough that fired up some persistent convection near the FL keys. It then was upgraded to a yellow circle that same day during 18z near the SW coast of FL. The surface trough originated from an ITCZ wave near near 45W that never fully consolidated itself until it reached the keys. Vorticity increased from the lower levels to higher levels, and I was surprised when mid level vorticity was present by 18z. I did not expect that little critter to sneak up on me like that lol.


Well..if thats the way you saw it fine..But youd be mistaken .
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

That's how they can start, did you know that? :)

CIMSS MAPS-look at the Upper level winds! There is no LLC, just at the Upper levels!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Can someone post a link to Erika imagery?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Im not risking another virus attack, regardless of what protection I have on this computer


WU really needs to take care of this if they care at all about their members; so far to me, they have shown they only care about the money they make

Anyway keep a close eye on Erika tonight, I have a feeling something unexpected will happen with her


It is the Ads it must be....I pay for WU and get nothing......My guess the popups are Adware junk ........That is total BS for WU to allow this to happen if this is the case..
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It is in a script. I have them blocked and am not having the problem, but this one looks suspicious to me:

"http://adcode.technoratimedia.com/bootstrap/tti.js"


You may be right...I just ran Malwarebytes and found nothing and McAfee kills it everytime it runs so I have no worries...just a pain in the arse is all...I'm going to medium high in IE and that should get rid of it
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Found my link for vort.

Look at the 200mb level:


Now at the 500mb level:


And finally, at the 850mb level:


You can see the vorticity max at 200mb, but the further down you go, the less vort there is. That means its a ULL (and a weak one, at that).
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Quoting JamesSA:

It is in a script. I have them blocked and am not having the problem, but this one looks suspicious to me:

"http://adcode.technoratimedia.com/bootstrap/tti.js"


I am using a DoD encrypted toughbook and the Virus/Malware is embedded in the Banner .Ads,

..use a AD Blocker download or upgrade ones systems for a blocking
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I'm glad I paid the $10 when I did, last thing I need it to have to reformat a hard drive just because I was reading up on the crapshoot about to hit my home island. lol
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where's Richard Simmons at?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, picking on us older folk, LOL, I am 48 & I knew that!BTW, Erica is starting her fit throwing episode!!!


I saw a flare-up in the last few frames, but didn't want to mention it. Can't say if it is anywhere near the center. Probably does not mean much at this point, until they decide where the center actually is and how strong, suppose?
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Quoting Patrap:


LOL,.Nuthing gets pass the Grasshopper..


Of course its a weak ULL..but remember,so was Claudette's Genesis.

Its September..


" Wake me Up,when Sept Ends.."


Claudette formed from a surface trough that fired up some persistent convection near the FL keys. It then was upgraded to a yellow circle that same day during 18z near the SW coast of FL. The surface trough originated from an ITCZ wave near near 45W that never fully consolidated itself until it reached the keys. Vorticity increased from the lower levels to higher levels, and I was surprised when mid level vorticity was present by 18z. I did not expect that little critter to sneak up on me like that lol.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That is an Upper Level Low, nothing of concern


That's how they can start, did you know that? :)
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Quoting Patrap:

Look carefully below the western Cuban Southern Coast



AHHHHH! I see it!
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Quoting Floodman:
This trojan does appear to be something on the WU servers themselves, unless there's a link in this current blog to something off the site...it would be tricky but if the servers are configged right it could be done...the script to load the trojan executes every time you refresh

It is in a script. I have them blocked and am not having the problem, but this one looks suspicious to me:

"http://adcode.technoratimedia.com/bootstrap/tti.js"
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WUMail...
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Im not risking another virus attack, regardless of what protection I have on this computer


WU really needs to take care of this if they care at all about their members; so far to me, they have shown they only care about the money they make

Anyway keep a close eye on Erika tonight, I have a feeling something unexpected will happen with her
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and they may be long trackers too
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Quoting Patrap:


Erika has to Survive the Caribbean to even consider the GOM,.and there are Hints now that a system is Forming in the GOM along the Lower part of that front..



Interesting, would that give us rain or move to the east by florida?
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767. Relix
If they use the southern LLC as the main one the forecast will shift to the left and south. If the north one becomes dominant we should have a whole new ballgame here.
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Pick a centre.. any centre :)


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If you don't have some sort of virus protection, then it may be too late, hope not, but verytime I refresh or even when I make this entry, it my mcaffe will block a trojan.
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Quoting Floodman:
This trojan does appear to be something on the WU servers themselves, unless there's a link in this current blog to something off the site...it would be tricky but if the servers are configged right it could be done...the script to load the trojan executes every time you refresh


Im my correspondence earlier today to the wu's Highest authority,

..the First malware attack wasnt even figured out here last Month by the Wunder Magicians IT's.

Expect some words on it,maybe.
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Erika's duel coc are moving towards one another. THis could be a sign of merging.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
I am talking about the wave coming off africa.


the wave coming off will likely develop. Almost all the reliable models develop this feature and the environment appears favorable over the upcoming days.

We maybe tracking Fred and Grace by next week

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Quoting Floodman:
I'll be damned...Patrap, I just got the McAfee message for the trojan...first time all day, so it most be something added after I logged off a few minutes ago...



Flood, I only got it after the DAT got updated. Then it was every click anywhere on this site.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
That swirl jsut south od western Cuba, the $64,000 question is, "Is that an ULL or NOT"?

It looks like a ULL to me. There isn't anything in the area to kick off a spin, and IIRC, its the same ULL that gave Danny fits. Also notice how T-storms will pop underneath it, and die off very quickly.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
That swirl jsut south od western Cuba, the $64,000 question is, "Is that an ULL or NOT"?


Now there's a man seeking the way.

Is it aloft,or at the Mid Levels..?

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That spin near the western tip of Cuba is a dying upper level low.
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OK bottom line!! Is she trying to get her act together again??
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

rhut rho - I see a little swirlie!


That is an Upper Level Low, nothing of concern

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This trojan does appear to be something on the WU servers themselves, unless there's a link in this current blog to something off the site...it would be tricky but if the servers are configged right it could be done...the script to load the trojan executes every time you refresh
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Quoting Weather456:


yes he did very well, but there were others.

Yes there were. He is just one example.
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That swirl jsut south od western Cuba, the $64,000 question is, "Is that an ULL or NOT"?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
i got it too..but on every website
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Quoting futuremet:


Weak ULL


LOL,.Nuthing gets pass the Grasshopper..


Of course its a weak ULL..but remember,so was Claudette's Genesis.

Its September..


" Wake me Up,when Sept Ends.."
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"Look carefully below the western Cuban Southern Coast"

I see it but when looking at a sat. loop how can I tell that from a ULL
tia
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Quoting Patrap:


Erika has to Survive the Caribbean to even consider the GOM,.and there are Hints now that a system is Forming in the GOM along the Lower part of that front..


In that area around 24N and 88W?
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733. nope
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Quoting Patrap:

Look carefully below the western Cuban Southern Coast



rhut rho - I see a little swirlie!
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744. Relix
Southern COC stopped. Northern one moving West.
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Quoting Grothar:


Whoa! You have to be over 70 to know that. Very good. Hope I don't get banned for injecting a little levity. No one responds to my serious comments. I feel so left out. boo hoo.

Well, picking on us older folk, LOL, I am 48 & I knew that!BTW, Erica is starting her fit throwing episode!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Can someone post a link to the most recent imagery for Erika?
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what about that spin starting up below the west tip of cuba? any chance that expands and moistens up that patch of dry air in the southern caribean? wish i knew enough to answer my own questions...TIA
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I wasn't able to get in here much in those months (busy around here)...it always gets bad in the early season though; all the trolls have created their new handles to circumvent their permanent bans...all of the persona non grata have done the same...like school starting in the fall, huh?

LOL
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739. JLPR
Tonight will be very interesting =P

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Hurricane009:
Weather456, what do you think about future 95L???


I expected her to deviate left of the forecast cone and thats what she did but as for intensity, she will not get pass 60 mph, if that much. Now track has deviate south, she will likely have some land interaction. It is uncertain as to what will happen after she emerges over the Southwest Atlantic. I'm in favor of a weakening trend but not disspiation.
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Quoting IKE:
That's a nice healthy blob about to roll off of Africa. If it develops quickly after reaching the Atlantic, the odds are it will.....er, shutup IKE....don't go there.

***Reaches for xanax***


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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