Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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823. kachina

I was only referencing the location.

This is what it shows it as -- discovered today, noonish. From McAfee's site

JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen
... Content. JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen. Type Trojan SubType Generic Discovery Date
09/02/2009 Length Minimum DAT 5728 (09/02/2009) Updated ...

vil.nai.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm - 31k - Cached

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I have rarely seen such strong seemingly organized convection with the disorganized surface low(s) as we have with Erika. At some point, I would guess that this will finally consolidate into one LLC, probably by DMAX early tomorrow morning.
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Quoting Patrap:


Yup,..Uh Huh..,You Betcha.

For 3 Day while everyone was Jaw-Jacking Bill,I and other Long John Posters were posting about Claudette 2 Days before the NHC made it a AOI..
But you can cruise the Blog archives..youve got talent for sure FM.


All because he disagreed with you?

Wow that is kinda sad really
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Tropical Storm Erika trying to strengthen, Tropical Storm Fred likely soon.
what ?whre ? how? holy batmobile batman its a plane no it cloud wait....wait....wait,its Erika!!!!
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818. TampaSpin 10:32 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

probably a dumb question to ask all but, you do have pop-off blocker set to off?


Yep...IE set to medium high...got a new symptom though...quote feature doesn;t work; looks like IT is slowly shutting down features looking for it
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Patrap, where would the thing near cuba go?
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3 Crow Recipe's,Enjoy!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129821
I miss the pictures....
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Quoting edmac:
I have a question, givin that Erika has basically done what it wants too, what are the chances of Erika tracking through the Carribean, and entering the Gulf. Not wishcasting, but i have seen some models posted here that show this. Are they junk, or could this actually take place. Anyone???


Quoting Masters:

"A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track."


Really, Masters' blog is at the top of the page for a reason. Before hitting the END key, take a peek.

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Quoting Floodman:
794. LovingTX 10:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!


OMG! It can't be this easy! LOL

It is, it really is this easy! lol
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794. LovingTX 10:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!


OMG! It can't be this easy! LOL
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Quoting Patrap:


Yup,..Uh Huh..,You Betcha.


I'd bring up my Sarah Palin but don't want to get banny.
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825. edmac
I have a question, givin that Erika has basically done what it wants too, what are the chances of Erika tracking through the Carribean, and entering the Gulf. Not wishcasting, but i have seen some models posted here that show this. Are they junk, or could this actually take place. Anyone???
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Quoting Masters:

"Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now."
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Quoting Ossqss:
This is the culprit in the Temporary internet files

MJTBRMWR\mootools-wu-1.11[1].js


That's not a trojan. It's not a virus. Your virus software's giving you a false-positive - since it's not recognizing it, it's assuming it's a problem file.

That particular file is the java-script for the page setup from what I can see. (hey...I could be wrong, but that's what it looks like to me). Admin can confirm that.
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Quoting futuremet:


Pat....view the satellite archives of Claudette---> here

The index archives are great.

Caribbean archive
....better view


Yup,..Uh Huh..,You Betcha.

For 3 Day while everyone was Jaw-Jacking Bill,I and other Long John Posters were posting about Claudette 2 Days before the NHC made it a AOI..
But you can cruise the Blog archives..youve got talent for sure FM.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129821
Quoting Baybuddy:
Quoting Grothar:


I thought it was Fred and Ginger.


Ginger Rogers did everything Fred Astaire did, only she did it backwards and in high heels!


Nope I am only 41 but my folks raised me right.
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I am using avg 8.0 suite and i dont have any problems.
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Quoting Floodman:
TS, it's not easy to find the culprit sometimes


probably a dumb question to ask all but, you do have pop-off blocker set to off?
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817. amd
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 22:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2009
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 21:54:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°58'N 61°53'W (15.9667N 61.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 11 miles (18 km) between the WSW and W (258°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,497m (4,911ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 171 nautical miles (197 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 31kts (From the SSE at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 236 nautical miles (272 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:22:30Z

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Quoting captaincaneguru:


Dude!! Thought you said you're tired of eating crow!!

Preheat your oven to 350deg, remove feathers through boiling in hot water, bake for 20min until the CROW is tender!!! Erika is full of suprises!!
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Would anyone care to guess what the shear conditions will be 3 or 4 days from now, say about 100 miles south of DR. Not that Erika or what's left could ever make it that far south and west. Or at least many would have said so last night. I ask only because I think that's where I think, she may be headed.
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Quoting captaincaneguru:


Dude!! Thought you said you're tired of eating crow!!

Dude - she's a chick! Uh, Lady.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap if you are talking about below Cuba 21n 83w. I looked at the winds on the buoys around there. In the keys it was nw futher south towards kman it was ne and towards Yucatan it was s. all bp were dropping there is a midlevel spin there on satellite. If something was to form on the front that pushed into the Gulf it maybe there.



Thanx,..Im watching the same here,in between ZoneAlarms and MacAfee Zings.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129821
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Quoting LovingTX:
What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!


LMAO!
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Quoting Patrap:


Well..if thats the way you saw it fine..But youd be mistaken .


Pat....view the satellite archives of Claudette---> here

The index archives are great.

Caribbean archive
....better view

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Quoting bocahurricane:
You should try using PC Security Shield http://www.pcsecurityshield.com/

Good luck!


I use Mcfee VirusScan Enterprise....Its dam good also
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Oh this is so easy...I can't..better stop...


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Quoting wcoastfl:
My virus software is blocking and removing a trojan with every mouse click here at WU. Anyone else haveing this happen? Not happening anywhere else but here.


Wow. More virus's then South Beach around here today.
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TS, it's not easy to find the culprit sometimes
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Quoting Chicklit:
I am very tired of eating crow. However, just for the sake of thinking something, I wager Erika will reform a center around what is now about 11.8N 61.7W, keep the anticyclone, and shift west into the Caribbean.


Dude!! Thought you said you're tired of eating crow!!
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Patrap if you are talking about below Cuba 21n 83w. I looked at the winds on the buoys around there. In the keys it was nw further south towards kman it was ne and towards Yucatan it was s. all bps were dropping there is a midlevel spin there on satellite. If something was to form on the front that pushed into the Gulf it maybe there.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Did I say there was an LLC? No, I don't believe I did. I used the word swirlie. Geesh!


Good obs,no One said that here either,but when the masses,assume..well the answers in the word assume..


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129821
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Oh this is so easy...I can't..better stop...


leave it alone :)
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Quoting LovingTX:
What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!

Oh this is so easy...I can't..better stop...
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Will the REAL LLC OF TS ERIKA, PLEASE STAND UP!
Which will win?? Stay tuned to your local Tropical satellite loop for your answer!!
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This is the culprit in the Temporary internet files

MJTBRMWR\mootools-wu-1.11[1].js
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Claudette came from a tropical wave and surface trof that interacted with a ULL, not from the ULL itself
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Erika pressure down 1mb to 1006mb and falling slowly.....starting to get better organized!
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What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!
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Quoting jeffs713:
Found my link for vort.

Look at the 200mb level:


Now at the 500mb level:


And finally, at the 850mb level:


You can see the vorticity max at 200mb, but the further down you go, the less vort there is. That means its a ULL (and a weak one, at that).


Outstanding Jeff..now we Have another discussion,as I only wanted to bring some focus that there are always Other things in the Basin to ,er..jaw-jack over,than the TD/TS Erika
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129821
Quoting Bordonaro:

CIMSS MAPS-look at the Upper level winds! There is no LLC, just at the Upper levels!!

Did I say there was an LLC? No, I don't believe I did. I used the word swirlie. Geesh!
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You should try using PC Security Shield http://www.pcsecurityshield.com/

Good luck!
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Do you think they will have an impact on the eatern seaboard. Sorry about all the questions.

Doubtful, GFS shows a sucession of strong east coast troughs beginning late next week.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Do you think they will have an impact on the eatern seaboard. Sorry about all the questions.


lol....that is way way out. I can tell you anything but that far out its not worth much. i can tell you that over the next 2 weeks surface ridging is interrupted by two significant troughs at most so alot depends on timing of these two features. Still a mega ways out.
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Quoting Patrap:

Look carefully below the western Cuban Southern Coast




Very observant, just wondering if the shear is favorable, seems to be, I'll check again. Might be a working buoy near there too.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Jeff Spicoli: People on 'ludes should not try to forecast!
Dude! That's my skull!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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