Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:
IM NOT JFV/WS, SHEESH!!! lol, what can i do for you people to understand?

Keep spelling correctly and don't act like a kicked dog.
no problem, lol, i can spell and i can not act like a kicked dog, lmao!
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Watching loop from nrl site loos like llc for Ericka got pulled east into the cloud mass, isnt this what happened last night.
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Quoting weatherman874:
Patrap, Bob Breck just mentioned the "possibility" of something forming in the Gulf


Bobs a 30 year Met and a Good Ol Marine too. Id listen to Him,as hes usually ahead of the Curve as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Oh this is so easy...I can't..better stop...

Now that's funny!!!
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Im now tracking 10 Malicious codes from the site.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Patrap, Bob Breck just mentioned the "possibility" of something forming in the Gulf
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Erika going into Caribbean Sea. Should exit midway via islands.
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good evening, approx. one hour until Erika begins to flare up again, imo
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
IM NOT JFV/WS, SHEESH!!! lol, what can i do for you people to understand?

Keep spelling correctly and don't act like a kicked dog.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
IM NOT JFV/WS, SHEESH!!! lol, what can i do for you people to understand?


btw I thought you said that wasnt the LLC you said it was where CCHS said ...17.4 and 59.0 W
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
well...was (sigh)
Link
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Quoting scottsvb:


WS that was already mentioned!
Quoting scottsvb:



JFK you were just in here 1 hour ago and said you were leaving .....decide to use you new tag on peeps that werent in here 1 hour ago? lol
IM NOT JFV/WS, SHEESH!!! lol, what can i do for you people to understand?
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Thats to much information Jupiter.


Yeah, sorry. Couldn't resist.
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When will this non Trojan problem be fixed?
I'm too old for this nonsense.
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Thats to much information Jupiter.
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Quoting amd:
It is definitely a wu server issue, not an ad attached to wu issue. When I got home from work and entered the wu website, the Mcafee immediately recognized the trojan.

Also, no matter what scripts I allow with the noscript option on firefox, I cannot access the quote, ignore user, or even use the wundermap to access weather locations.



Im running FF3 but on a DoD System..so all the features are working on my end.
Its a funny one,this malware or virus.And Like I said earlier..they couldnt figure it out,the wunderground last month,so I advise caution.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
862. JupiterFL 10:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
They were Crow Brownies.


Dude, I love Crow Brownies...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection beginning to pop over the COC:



WS that was already mentioned!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Block a web site called technoratimedia.com and you should be fine. Could also be specificclick.net (the net is troubling) so block that too.

I'm using Firefox with NoScript and Adblocker add-ons, and script from those sites are not being allowed ... and I have had no problems.

Using the same myself at both work and home and no issues thusfar
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The center is the tiny blob to the left.
Not the big blob.
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Quoting edmac:
I have read it, so you are saying it is possible. Im not a weather buff, Im stationed in Jamaica, and sat through IKE last year.


Yeah, sorry for snapping, rough afternoon. Well, it's not me that said it, it's Dr. Masters.

Hope you don't have to sit thru an Erika
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening



JFK you were just in here 1 hour ago and said you were leaving .....decide to use you new tag on peeps that werent in here 1 hour ago? lol
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
Convection beginning to pop over the COC:

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B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°58'N 61°53'W (15.9667N 61.8833W)
Ha! Whad I tell you. (I think 15.8N, 61.7W)
No crow yet.
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Quoting captaincaneguru:
Chicks eat crow???? I want what you guys are smokin' lol


They were Crow Brownies.
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I'm out. Tracking these sick systems is tiresome.
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860. amd
It is definitely a wu server issue, not an ad attached to wu issue. When I got home from work and entered the wu website, the Mcafee immediately recognized the trojan.

Also, no matter what scripts I allow with the noscript option on firefox, I cannot access the quote, ignore user, or even use the wundermap to access weather locations.
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convection firing near the llc
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Mother of the Blobs or the Beast from the East..
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855. 7544
same here every refresh get a trojan warning some email ADMINS and let admins know thanks ill be back when its fix

anyway ericka looks like she wants to make a comeback at this hour her fav time is a few hours away
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Well, you got to give credit where credit is deserved. Erika is a figter and it is still around against all odds. I expect it to dissipate once it hits the mountains over Puerto Rico, but it is fun to follow. i am glad that Puerto Rico was spared...
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Good evening
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847. Patrap

Nice image there, Doc Pat!
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Chicks eat crow???? I want what you guys are smokin' lol
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Wow, why ts just form start off disornganized, then it wont organize and just die??
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Pat, you ever been ta Stanley? (owner also owns Stella) My husband described the website as food porn! OMG!
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CloudSat appears to have caught Erika Yesterday

IRI ENSO Analogs


1500' up & 12 miles over - That's disorganized! (yet it persists).
I'm wondering if that anomalous lower mid level shear will lose its focus on the "many circulations of Erika" should it (they) zig, zag, dance, and survive until the E coast trough lifts/dissipates as progged next week.
Conditions, like steering patterns, oscillate, maybe biasing one way, but with windows that a tenacious storm can take advantage of. Not too sure about Erika impaling herself on one mountainous island then another. Respecting the likely end of Erika as an unbeatable single track/intensity prediction, I have to take [everything else] including (much lower prob) making it (keeps the name) as far W as N or S of Cuba before recurving.
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Quoting Floodman:
818. TampaSpin 10:32 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

probably a dumb question to ask all but, you do have pop-off blocker set to off?


Yep...IE set to medium high...got a new symptom though...quote feature doesn;t work; looks like IT is slowly shutting down features looking for it



They couldnt figure it out Last Month as I was told today,

..so Im sure their probing the site Innerd's, Balls and Guts seeking the Infection.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting TampaSpin:


probably a dumb question to ask all but, you do have pop-off blocker set to off?


Block a web site called technoratimedia.com and you should be fine. Could also be specificclick.net (the net is troubling) so block that too.

I'm using Firefox with NoScript and Adblocker add-ons, and script from those sites are not being allowed ... and I have had no problems.
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Here's something odd. I have McAfee Host Intrusion installed on this, my work laptop. I also use Firefox w/AdBlock when I'm not connected to secure work VPN. I disconnected from work VPN and within seconds I'm getting repeated pings that are being blocked by McAfee. About one a minute. Various IPs but tend to be consistently one IP for 30 mins before it switches to a new one.

If anyone also has this program open it and click on "Activity Log" to see what's being blocked.

My primary activity is WU.
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Quoting Floodman:
818. TampaSpin 10:32 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

probably a dumb question to ask all but, you do have pop-off blocker set to off?


Yep...IE set to medium high...got a new symptom though...quote feature doesn;t work; looks like IT is slowly shutting down features looking for it


Do a quick reset of IE.
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823. Kachina

That's not a trojan. It's not a virus. Your virus software's giving you a false-positive - since it's not recognizing it, it's assuming it's a problem file.

That particular file is the java-script for the page setup from what I can see. (hey...I could be wrong, but that's what it looks like to me). Admin can confirm that.


Nope...the trojan appears on the AVERT site as a low level issue...it seems to be the one that gives you the "Windows Antivirus Pro" malware
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841. edmac
I have read it, so you are saying it is possible. Im not a weather buff, Im stationed in Jamaica, and sat through IKE last year.
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Again let me repeat

TS Claudette came from a surface trof in association with a tropical wave that INTERACTED with a ULL, it DID NOT come from the ULL itself.
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Quoting Floodman:
794. LovingTX 10:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
What is the name of the Trojan you keep having trouble with? I want to be sure I'm protected up front!


OMG! It can't be this easy! LOL


If I can leave it alone.. so can you...
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823. kachina

I was only referencing the location.

This is what it shows it as -- discovered today, noonish. From McAfee's site

JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen
... Content. JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen. Type Trojan SubType Generic Discovery Date
09/02/2009 Length Minimum DAT 5728 (09/02/2009) Updated ...

vil.nai.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm - 31k - Cached

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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