Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:
convection firing around the LLC of Erika this evening, hopes quikscat catches it.

Which one? hehe
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Hello, fellow CONCH
I live in Key west on Sigsby park
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Quoting EarthMuffin:


I personally apologize for keeping the WS debate alive, however, regardless of who the this new poster is, it is a fact he copied and pasted wikipedia's definition of "anticyclone"...
first of all I did not copy it from wikipedia, now let us put this dilemma behind us and continue with Erika.
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convection firing around the LLC of Erika this evening, hopes quikscat catches it.
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Quoting Brillig:
Let's try this again on the new thread....

I have an idea for visualizing the storm center. Take HH data and plot lines perpendicular to the normal flags. Make the length of the lines be proportional to the wind speed. The result will look something like this. The lines all point to the center of circulation.

Multiple centers and insignificant vortexes should be evident this way.


That looks like a very very confused system.
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I don't trust this little blob..... its sneaking in under the Radar..




And I guarantee I don't trust this one at all..

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18Z UKMET
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980. Relix
Quoting jipmg:


HHC?


NHC =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2676
a leopard never changes his spots, he just hides in the bushes
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In case ya missed this earlier..

Its zactly a Year ago..today.

2 Sept 2008

Lotsa Pain in this Image..

Best pray this year Holds back some.

Were all in the slot,5 by 5 for the Next 3 weeks.





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WTF!!!! Now, after all this time. Erika will most likely die over the islands/Caribbean and Jimena will stall, go West and die in the cold waters. All of these major deviations in less than 12 hours. This is the first season that I can remember, and there's many of them, where "things do not appear as they seem"- hour to hour. And that really worries me living on the tiny little island of Key West with possible mainland evacuation times of 6-8 hours
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Quoting Relix:
Oh my god can you guys please stop the ridiculous JFV/WS /whateverelse dilemma?

*sigh*

Gonna wait for what HHC has to say at 8 now


I personally apologize for keeping the WS debate alive, however, regardless of who the this new poster is, it is a fact he copied and pasted wikipedia's definition of "anticyclone"...
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Straight From Wikipedia


Trademarks and copyrights

Wikipedia is a registered trademark of the not-for-profit Wikimedia Foundation, which has created an entire family of free-content projects. On all of these projects, you are welcome to be bold and edit articles yourself, contributing knowledge as you see fit in a collaborative way.

Most of Wikipedia's text and many of its images are dual-licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0 Unported License (CC-BY-SA) and the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) (unversioned, with no invariant sections, front-cover texts, or back-cover texts). Some text has been imported only under CC-BY-SA and CC-BY-SA-compatible license and cannot be reused under GFDL; such text will be identified either on the page footer, in the page history or the discussion page of the article that utilizes the text. Every image has a description page which indicates the license under which it is released or, if it is non-free, the rationale under which it is used.

Contributions remain the property of their creators, while the CC-BY-SA and GFDL licenses ensure the content is freely distributable and reproducible. (See the copyright notice and the content disclaimer for more information.)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting futuremet:


WOW

It seems I have been tricked by WS once again.
im not WS, lol, once again.
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Let's try this again on the new thread....

I have an idea for visualizing the storm center. Take HH data and plot lines perpendicular to the normal flags. Make the length of the lines be proportional to the wind speed. The result will look something like this. The lines all point to the center of circulation.

Multiple centers and insignificant vortexes should be evident this way.

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Quoting TideWaterWeather:



ummm... thats a straight cut and paste

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclone

yet he does not know when D-MAX starts?

Diurnal maximum begins when the sunrises and Diurnal minimum begins when the sun sets, buddy, lol.
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trying to pop thunderstorms to cover the center... again...
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969. jipmg
Quoting Relix:
Oh my god can you guys please stop the ridiculous JFV/WS /whateverelse dilemma?

*sigh*

Gonna wait for what HHC has to say at 8 now


HHC?
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Quoting rxse7en:
I think we're gonna see two lows form—the one you noted by Cuba and one offshore from Jax. Though that systems looks to be flowing NE, I was watching the lower level clouds flow SW coming in from offshore. Very strange.


Could be a Double-Barrel Solution,..time will tell. Beats watching that Erika thang..LOL
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Quoting Patrap:


The area north of the Bahamas and east of the Carolinas also looks pretty juicy for possible development with that stalled front.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


omg, that is copied directly from wikipedia's 'anticyclone' page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclone

hmm, could it be ws? I want to the his bathroom curtain


WOW

It seems I have been tricked by WS once again.
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Quoting EarthMuffin:
I had one of those false anti-virus pop-ups...I could not make it disappear by any conventional means, so I improperly shut down my system (ripped the DSL cable out of the back, waited a few, then plugged it back in)...havent had a problem with anything since.

I probably run the crappiest laptop possible (Dell Latitude D610) and have AVG anti-virus [free].

Did said poster credit Wikipedia for that definition of an anticyclone? I typed "anticyclone" into wiki and got that exact def, verbatim.
sorry earthmuffin, I was taught that several years ago, if it is the same as what it appears on Wikipedia, I'm sorry, but I by no means try to plagiarize the Wikipedia.
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963. Relix
Oh my god can you guys please stop the ridiculous JFV/WS /whateverelse dilemma?

*sigh*

Gonna wait for what HHC has to say at 8 now
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2676
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Erika has weakened over the past 12 to 18 hours but despite all her COC relocation the one at 16W seems to be the dominant one due to the convection bursts over the past 3 or so hours. If Erika follows current steering patterns and well the NHC cone as well we will probably not have Erika in about 96 hours, but remember it is mother nature and we have no control over what may happen. Just continue to monitor Erika for the possibility of intensification in the short-run as several models are saying.

That isn't a JFV/WS-like post. That one actually has info.

Can we consider this whole debate over, please? I would like to see logic and info in the blog again, not mindless drivel about the person who isn't even online right now.
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Quoting Chicklit:
semper fi. later.


oooh Rah,Later Chicklit
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Quoting futuremet:
Guys, MiamiHurricanes09 is not JFV. WS is not capable of posting something like this, which I find very helpful.

All WS does is ask random questions and make irrelevant posts. Notice how he never post a link or image despite being here for over 2 years! lol

This is was MiamiHurricanes post earlier today

In meteorology, an anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon in which there is a descending movement of the air, and with surface systems, higher than average atmospheric pressure over the part of the planet's surface. Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and inhibit free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.



ummm... thats a straight cut and paste

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclone

yet he does not know when D-MAX starts?

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Quoting Patrap:
I think we're gonna see two lows form—the one you noted by Cuba and one offshore from Jax. Though that systems looks to be flowing NE, I was watching the lower level clouds flow SW coming in from offshore. Very strange.
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thanks for the info guys, I will tell my husband to come down off the ceiling:)

Det
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Martinique about to get nailed by one of the COCs of Erika.
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There was too much easterlies and SAL for the a lot waves emerging off Africa to develop. TWC said westerlies lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Erika has weakened over the past 12 to 18 hours but despite all her COC relocation the one at 16W seems to be the dominant one due to the convection bursts over the past 3 or so hours. If Erika follows current steering patterns and well the NHC cone as well we will probably not have Erika in about 96 hours, but remember it is mother nature and we have no control over what may happen. Just continue to monitor Erika for the possibility of intensification in the short-run as several models are saying.


alright, thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
In light of post 948...I withdraw post 949. JFVWS certainly DOES have the capacity to steal the work of someone else.
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening all, so how is erika? i think she will begin to flare up again later, imo, go red sox!
Erika has weakened over the past 12 to 18 hours but despite all her COC relocation the one at 16W seems to be the dominant one due to the convection bursts over the past 3 or so hours. If Erika follows current steering patterns and well the NHC cone as well we will probably not have Erika in about 96 hours, but remember it is mother nature and we have no control over what may happen. Just continue to monitor Erika for the possibility of intensification in the short-run as several models are saying.
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Ericka has finally seemed to shrug off the pull of the trough to the north, look out everyone thank god the shear been high in the carbbean this year.
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Quoting futuremet:
Guys, MiamiHurricanes09 is not JFV. WS is not capable of posting something like this, which I find very helpful.

All WS does is ask random questions and make irrelevant posts. Notice how he never post a link or image despite being here for over 2 years! lol

This is was MiamiHurricanes post earlier today

In meteorology, an anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon in which there is a descending movement of the air, and with surface systems, higher than average atmospheric pressure over the part of the planet's surface. Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and inhibit free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.


Did said poster credit Wikipedia for that definition of an anticyclone? I typed "anticyclone" into wiki and got that exact def, verbatim.

[edited to remove irrelevant content]
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Quoting futuremet:
Guys, MiamiHurricanes09 is not JFV. WS is not capable of posting something like this, which I find very helpful.

All WS does is ask random questions and make irrelevant posts. Notice how he never post a link or image despite being here for over 2 years! lol

This is was MiamiHurricanes post earlier today

In meteorology, an anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon in which there is a descending movement of the air, and with surface systems, higher than average atmospheric pressure over the part of the planet's surface. Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and inhibit free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.


You are correct.
Anyone seen Canesrule1?
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Quoting futuremet:
Guys, MiamiHurricanes09 is not JFV. WS is not capable of posting something like this, which I find very helpful.

All WS does is ask random questions and make irrelevant posts. Notice how he never post a link or image despite being here for over 2 years! lol

This is was MiamiHurricanes post earlier today

In meteorology, an anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon in which there is a descending movement of the air, and with surface systems, higher than average atmospheric pressure over the part of the planet's surface. Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a region of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and inhibit free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.


Absolutely correct! JFVWS does not have the command of either meteorology or the English language to compose that.
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Quoting futuremet:
Guys, MiamiHurricanes09 is not JFV. WS is not capable of posting something like this, which I find very helpful.

All WS does is ask random questions and make irrelevant posts. Notice how he never post a link or image despite being here for over 2 years! lol

This is was MiamiHurricanes post earlier today

In meteorology, an anticyclone (that is, opposite to a cyclone) is a weather phenomenon in which there is a descending movement of the air, and with surface systems, higher than average atmospheric pressure over the part of the planet's surface. Effects of surface-based anticyclones include clearing skies as well as cooler, drier air. Fog can also form overnight within a r egion of higher pressure. Mid-tropospheric systems, such as the subtropical ridge, deflect tropical cyclones around their periphery and inhibit free convection near their center, building up surface-based haze under their base. Anticyclones aloft can form within warm core lows, such as tropical cyclones, due to descending cool air from the backside of upper troughs, such as polar highs, or from large scale sinking, such as the subtropical ridge. Anticyclonic flow spirals in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.


omg, that is copied directly from wikipedia's 'anticyclone' page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclone

hmm, could it be ws? I want to the his bathroom curtain
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Quoting Floodman:
904. TreasureCoastFl 11:03 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
How reliable??
none of them are reliable at this point, IMO


How can they be? The environment is pretty complicated...shear in single layers, that sort of thing tends to make the models go kerflewie...and yes, I said kerflewie


Models go kerflewie, and storms go kablooey.
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semper fi. later.
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Quoting Floodman:
904. TreasureCoastFl 11:03 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
How reliable??
none of them are reliable at this point, IMO


How can they be? The environment is pretty complicated...shear in single layers, that sort of thing tends to make the models go kerflewie...and yes, I said kerflewie


"It is by will alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by will alone I set my mind in motion."

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If one were to believe the hwrf 1200 run, South FL would be in trouble. But of course, why would we have any faith in any one model at this point in time?
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Dmax is at local sunrise over a storm. With where Erika is right now, I'm going to guess that Dmax is around 3am EST.
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FutureMet- That is plagiarism. That entire paragraph was from Wikipedia's entry for "Anticyclone".
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I will personally vouch for MiamiHurricanes09,hes a real member,not the Other mentioned.
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good evening all, so how is erika? i think she will begin to flare up again later, imo, go red sox!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
939. JLPR
915. Chicklit 11:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Patrap's on firefox duty, the 'new boy' is NOT JFV/WS, and JLPR thinks the LLC is where I thought it was...my faith is restored!


good for you =]

now if only they would delete the freaking virus/trojan thingy so that I can recover my ability to quote xD
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928. Futuremet:

thank you a lot!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.