Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1037 - 987

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Erika moving at 1MPH, wow.

DOA?? RIP??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1036. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
I will personally vouch for MiamiHurricanes09,hes a real member,not the Other mentioned.



I rarely,If ever quote myself.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:


Lighten up sport and scroll down a Page.

I gave you a Personal endorsement.
I was quoting the Monomania,..not your presence.
I don't mean it in a mean way, I just prefer to say "excuse me" instead of the uneducated word of "huh". Do you know what I mean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. msphar
NHC continues to miss on Jimena. They can seem to get the direction, magnitude or velocity correct. Pretty amazing. Perhaps they are hung up on Erika but these missed estimates this late in the game on Jimena seem out of character for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
The center of circulation with Erika is now at about 15.8 N, 62.2 W. It has moved .6 S and .5 W since 5 pm. Not even going to come close to her next forecast point. NHC may need to make some major track changes next advisory.


they dont have to wait till 11pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika moving at 1MPH, wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1031. HTV
Someone is peeing on my shoe and trying to convince me it is rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. Patrap
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
excuse me?


Lighten up sport and scroll down a Page.

I gave you a Personal endorsement.
I was quoting the Monomania,..not your presence.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
18Z GFDL: Another Ernesto
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika is a headache.

How about the wave preparing to enter the Atlantic via W Africa...looks rather menacing, just as it did two days ago. Of course, the preceding wave was torn apart by shear...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
later everyone lets see what happens overnight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bonz:
The 8 PM advisory doesn't have it on the map any more.



If there was nothing, then it would read, No Tropical cyclones are expected at this time.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that the center is displaced from the main area of convection it will be easier to track, here is the latest satellite image courtesy of RAMSDIS:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika barely a TS per 8 pm Advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1023. Bonz
The 8 PM advisory doesn't have it on the map any more.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1022. Patrap
Quoting dolphingalrules:
for me i think that i give you 12-18 hours--herbert #1. i do know that its going west..just wait. this is a so. fla storm..


I did Notice the Fla Copyrite on the Latest RGB image.

Fascinating.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...
ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTNT31 KNHC 022336
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...
ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Jeesum..JFV/WS still pools a command presence.

Karma indeed.
excuse me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we'll see...west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The center of circulation with Erika is now at about 15.8 N, 62.2 W. It has moved .6 S and .5 W since 5 pm. Not even going to come close to her next forecast point. NHC may need to make some major track changes next advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1016. Patrap
Jeesum..JFV/WS still pools a command presence.

Karma indeed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
for me i think that i give you 12-18 hours--herbert #1. i do know that its going west..just wait. this is a so. fla storm..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8Pm intermediate advisory should be in shortly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EarthMuffin:


Their definitions of "anticyclone" are word for word identical. Guess wikipedia copied his definition.

Anyway, back Erika...
whatever, lets continue with Erika, please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1012. Skyepony (Mod)
Hey from vacation. Glad this has slowed down, atleast if I have to deal with it, I won't have to come home early. Awesome to fly through here & gleam what's going on.. Did have to check out the models.

The models still haven't a clue.. LBARS leading the pack. Hard to believe but there it is.

model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
LBAR INCREASING 104.2 122 109 152.1 406.3
OFCL INCREASING 112 -1 -1 -1 -1
BAMD INCREASING 119.1 190 293.7 447 669.3
HWRF DECREASING 155.1 241.2 366.7 630.5 868.4
GFDL DECREASING 168.3 242.7 298.3 447.5 516.5
KHRM DECREASING 219.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 236.1 302.7 315.5 431.2 -1
MM5E DECREASING 292.1 -1 -1 -1 -1



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. LUCARIO
erika is pulling a trick so we don't notice her monster boyfriend fred. Fred is a name to be fear. Erika might die because she don't want to face fred.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1008. Patrap
Quoting Brillig:


When I get some time I'll use the technique on data from a more organized storm. My original idea was for the lines to be like cones, sort of like a flashlight beam. Where they overlap, they reinforce each other. I don't think I can do that, though, with the tools I'm using.


I like it. Kinda Like a Vortex fractal.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you forgot to add bud and sir


Their definitions of "anticyclone" are word for word identical. Guess wikipedia copied his definition.

Anyway, back Erika...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika now, Fred soon, Grace later?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1004. JLPR
well what appeared to happen today to Erika was that she expulsed her old circulation in order to build a new one but something went wrong and now the old circulation is taking control once again xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you forgot to add bud and sir
lol
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Down to the parentheses, huh? Goodness you're great with grammar when it counts. Yet, when composing a sentence of your own, you fail to properly end a run on sentence, seperate compounds, use uppercase, etc. *facepalm*
who are you speaking to?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1002. Patrap





I will have Arrakis back for myself! He who controls the Spice controls the universe and what Piter did not tell you is we have control of someone who is very close, very close, to Duke Leto! This person, this traitor, will be worth more to us than ten legions of Sardaukar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
1001. Brillig
Quoting jeffs713:

That looks like a very very confused system.


When I get some time I'll use the technique on data from a more organized storm. My original idea was for the lines to be like cones, sort of like a flashlight beam. Where they overlap, they reinforce each other. I don't think I can do that, though, with the tools I'm using.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that wave coming off africa is a monster looks impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears Jimena may emerge back over the Gulf of California later tonight, in which strengthening may occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to the latest Saharan Air Layer map, the wave emerging off of Africa should not have a tough time dealing with SAL due to its southerly exit, the wave that dissipated over the cape Verde islands, and of course Erika:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like erika LLC is firing strong convection looks like is recovering a bit, lets wait to see what tonight will do to her
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Down to the parentheses, huh? Goodness you're great with grammar when it counts. Yet, when composing a sentence of your own, you fail to properly end a run on sentence, seperate compounds, use uppercase, etc. *facepalm*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
first of all I did not copy it from wikipedia, now let us put this dilemma behind us and continue with Erika.
you forgot to add bud and sir
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Which one? hehe

LMAO! Good one! the original LLC, also referred to earlier " as the false center".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Baha -- hope your headache gets better soon - rest well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
18Z UKMET
that seems to be a plausible scenario, in my opinion a little to southerly, like i said before if current steering patterns corresponding to current minimum pressure holds, this should begin to stall and move WNW/NW by the time it reaches 70W or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening, everyone.

Just looking in for a moment or two. Seems like mostly good news re. Erika and Jimena today. If Erica insists on doing the SE-NW tour of the Bahamas, I'd much prefer she do it as a TD rather than as a cat 5..... lol

Of course, I'll wait to see this happen before I become certain it actually IS happening....

I'm not going to stick around much tonight. I already have a massive headache, and I don't need to add to it w/ Erica's antics.... LOL

Have a good one, kiddos... and here's hoping we don't get any serious flooding etc across the Caribbean or Bahamas over the next 5 days....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Which one? hehe


touche.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika does not look well at this hour, but I will stand by before outright predicting her demise. The last forecast models I checked out show a weakening to TD by Friday... Then again, one of the greatest debates of this blog is what model is most accurate...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
convection firing around the LLC of Erika this evening, hopes quikscat catches it.

Which one? hehe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1037 - 987

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
80 °F
Partly Cloudy