Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1087. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:






I'll miss the sea, but a person needs new experiences. They jar something deep inside, allowing him to grow. Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken
Dune lives and breathes in cyberspace, speaking of space, to me, Erika looks like she is from outer space.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25106
1086. Relix
I would really like to hear StormW's comments on the two circulations.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
Quoting CaribBoy:


which one is that? lol, i see a spin just east of an island in the north part of the radar image thats the 18N, 60W rotation, it might be taking over.
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After lurking for sometime...I think I have the hang of this blog.....

-The next update will be the one!
-Everybody better watch out....EXTREME Danger to come soon!
-The CONUS is going to have a deadly storm knocking at their door!
-The GOMEX better watch out!
-I know the models say it is going north, but my 11th grade Earth Science class tells me it is going south.
-The models are wrong...trust me.
-A*N*D*R*E*W
-K*A*T*R*I*N*A
-The storm in 1945 that was at the same location as this cloud mass is now hit the CONUS.
-ALL PRAISE DR. MASTERS .... MUST HANG ON EVERY WORD. HE KNOWS ME PERSONALLY FROM MY MUNDANE COMMENTS LIKE *thanks dr. m.!*
-last but not least......"Have to go now...mom said it's time for bed."
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Im out for 10 minutes, BRB.
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1082. Relix
Actually I'll retire the RIP comment. I am frustrated at Erika =P. The 17N center seems to be taking command
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
1081. rxse7en
Quoting indianrivguy:


Kwizak Haderach
Atreides scum! :D
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Quoting tornadodude:


but then you have to scroll all the way down to post, but whatever works for you


Just hit the page down key on your keyboard.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Look just east of Antigua!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6838
1078. Grothar
WTNT31 KNHC 022336
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...
ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Experts look to be battin 0-2 on last two storms.
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Quoting Patrap:
I have always used "show newest first",..why have to scroll down to the Bottom to see the newest Post,..dats Crazy.


I use to use the "show all", but now I use "Show average". It is easier to filter out trolls that way. I use the "Show all" during the winter.
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Quoting Patrap:






I'll miss the sea, but a person needs new experiences. They jar something deep inside, allowing him to grow. Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken


Kwizak Haderach
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1073. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


I like it. Kinda Like a Vortex fractal.
Fractals,fractals, everywhere....even in the tropical storms.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25106
Quoting futuremet:
Latest CIMSS surface convergence still indicates that the 60W 17N COC has the advantage, because the convergence focuses near it.


Wow. Would you believe these two posts !. The map must have updated the moment I copied to paste LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
oops, I'm sorry.

dont sweat it
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Quoting Patrap:
I have always used "show newest first",..why have to scroll down to the Bottom to see the newest Post,..dats Crazy.
Me too.
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Look just east of Antigua!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6838
Quoting Patrap:
I have always used "show newest first",..why have to scroll down to the Bottom to see the newest Post,..dats Crazy.


but then you have to scroll all the way down to post, but whatever works for you
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Quoting Brillig:


When I get some time I'll use the technique on data from a more organized storm. My original idea was for the lines to be like cones, sort of like a flashlight beam. Where they overlap, they reinforce each other. I don't think I can do that, though, with the tools I'm using.


That's great stuff Brillig. I'll be following it as you put it up.
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1066. Patrap
I have always used "show newest first",..why have to scroll down to the Bottom to see the newest Post,..dats Crazy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134795
Does it seem to anybody else that Erika is taking giant steps, "walking", instead of "spinning"? Each centre relocation is like a new footprint.... Either that or Erika is taking the trochoidal wobble to a new level....
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Quoting tornadodude:


dang that sucks, and thanks MiamiHurricanes09, except you gave me the reverse directions :P
oops, I'm sorry.
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1062. Relix
It looks like an :-O face hahaha. Like a frog.

Anyway, Erika is about to RIP. Not looking good for her at all ATM.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2772
Quoting futuremet:


GFDL attempted to regenerate near the Keys.
That could possibly happen not over the Keys but most likely in my opinion over the Gulf of Mexico if it still has thunderstorm activity. Example: Claudette.
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Latest CIMSS surface convergence still indicates that the 60W 17N COC has the advantage, because the convergence focuses near it.
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Here is an interesting graphic. It shows the lower level convergence. The stronger the convergence the better defined the low.

Just 2 hours ago there was none at all inside the Caribbean. Whatever convergence there was was confined to the area NE of Guadeloupe which still has the best signature. The difference is that the convergence has now connected the " two centers " and has improved significantly in that 2 hour time frame.

If quikscat catches this area we may well see a single elongated low. Whether it would be closed or not remains to be seen. The HH found a closed low earlier so the odds are that with the improving convergence at the lower levels one would see a closed low continuing.

This improvement in structure may be a precursor to a new round of heavy thunderstorms over the next few hours.

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1058. Patrap
Quoting indianrivguy:


meet the Atriedes gom jabbar Grandfather






I'll miss the sea, but a person needs new experiences. They jar something deep inside, allowing him to grow. Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134795
Quoting EarthMuffin:


You're lucky. Mine stops halfway down the posts when I reload, and I end up scrolling for a minute or more to get to the most recent post...


dang that sucks, and thanks MiamiHurricanes09, except you gave me the reverse directions :P
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Weak disturbance Erica will affect Florida. That's my forecast.
that is very possible, Erika will most likely be an open wave affecting South Florida Tuesday most likely.
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Quoting hydrus:
Ernesto was a weak storm when it hit Florida. No Problem.


GFDL attempted to regenerate near the Keys.
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Quoting hydrus:
Ernesto was a weak storm when it hit Florida. No Problem.


maybe for florida! no power for 4 days, plus flooding rains cause of stupid ernesto...
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Quoting tornadodude:
ok, so now this blog like reversed the order of the posts on my computer, it now counts down when i scroll down


You're lucky. Mine stops halfway down the posts when I reload, and I end up scrolling for a minute or more to get to the most recent post...
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I'm beginning to wonder if Erika has been an embarrassment of some sort.
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Um err

I think I see another center at 56W 18N. It seems to be fading.

Shortwave IR2
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Quoting tornadodude:
ok, so now this blog like reversed the order of the posts on my computer, it now counts down when i scroll down
Just go to the top of the comments just below where it says "Reader Comments" and click "Newest First", you currently have "Order Posted" clicked.
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Weak disturbance Erica will affect Florida. That's my forecast.
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LLC at 17N 60W is fireing convection too.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6838
Quoting Patrap:





I will have Arrakis back for myself! He who controls the Spice controls the universe and what Piter did not tell you is we have control of someone who is very close, very close, to Duke Leto! This person, this traitor, will be worth more to us than ten legions of Sardaukar


meet the Atriedes gom jabbar Grandfather
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PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH (lol)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6838
Quoting masonsnana:

DOA?? RIP??
It is possible that Erika might be preparing for an uncalled for turn to the WNW, although I highly doubt it, you do have to agree that anything is possible with Erika.
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Quoting Brillig:


When I get some time I'll use the technique on data from a more organized storm. My original idea was for the lines to be like cones, sort of like a flashlight beam. Where they overlap, they reinforce each other. I don't think I can do that, though, with the tools I'm using.
Are u thinking about some of the "terraforming" type software they have out now that shows what a new design for something will look like and allow the viewer to tweak? The concept at least seems potentially interesting....
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ok, so now this blog like reversed the order of the posts on my computer, it now counts down when i scroll down
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1041. hydrus
Quoting futuremet:
18Z GFDL: Another Ernesto
Ernesto was a weak storm when it hit Florida. No Problem.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25106
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't mean it in a mean way, I just prefer to say "excuse me" instead of the uneducated word of "huh". Do you know what I mean?
Plus I am a Scorpio so I can't say I'm easy as pie, I can be a tough cookie when I want to be.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The center of circulation with Erika is now at about 15.8 N, 62.2 W. It has moved .6 S and .5 W since 5 pm. Not even going to come close to her next forecast point. NHC may need to make some major track changes next advisory.


The track has shifted west once already. I think future intensity is the question.
People. JFV would not have gone to google to find the definition on wiki, then bring it over here and post it. Much easier to simply ask one of us to do it.

But really, whether or not this new blogger is JFV, u do not KNOW. Why do u even CARE? Leave it alone. Sooner or later u guys will have to get over that guy. Why is he so much more important than all the rest of the bloggers that we have to devote LITERALLY hundreds of posts to him? And he is not even the topic of the day!!!

Like I said, get over it, already.

Thank u for your support.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Erika moving at 1MPH, wow.

DOA?? RIP??
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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