Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1437 - 1387

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Any indications of center relocating from official forecasters?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
haven't you guys noticed that the MLC is at 18N 56W which means erika is no longer vertically stacked something will have to dramatically cahnge if this is to stay a TS through 5AM advisory
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taco, I am concerned about the next several weeks in general. Having said that, erika is one to watch for sure. I am working in orange beach and need to stay on top of this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rxse7en:
Are there any African weather stations online that provide radar, rainfall, windspeed, etc.? It'd be interesting to see how intense the blobs coming over Africa are.


Station 13001
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 11.50N 23W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 2 Sep 2009 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (240°) at 8.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F

Have to wait for it to get a little further W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1417. Funkadelic 9:16 PM EDT on September 02, 2009

HWRF 102knot hurricane plowing into south/central florida 18Z lol

Not agreeing witht he gungho HWRF, but that track would be worst case scenario for FL, very similar to Jeanne once she got to PR.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
future, you said the same thing I did :)

Great minds think alike, I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Wow, look at her. Wilma was a beautiful storm, perhaps once in a century.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3793
I'm back, left to do something uncalled for.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Northern COC, one it becomes dominant, if it becomes dominant, will have a nice curved band to the south and good outflow. Erika will all of a sudden become much better organized if the northern COC takes over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane009:
The green indicates -90 degree cloud tops I think, anyway this storm is still very strong over land, and my turn into a monster over water.



Thanks, I'm still learning these things.

It does look strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The southern COC is converting into an inflow band.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hello

I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.

Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA
working for me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oops, sorry I read back a ways. Never mind and thanks anyway.

LOL, I can't even quote myself.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
1422. will40
gfs cmc and nogaps showing something local off SC,NC border in about 4 days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. Dakster
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hello

I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.

Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA


Works for me too..

BTW, I never got a chance to finish scanning with google earth, but are the Islands Erika passing over at the moment have moutains on them?

Just because the convection looks even MORE distorted than normal...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
Erika is blowing up again

Pls pls mark the so called center of Erica..sorry to be so confused but I am!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Now I've got a Trojan that is "generic packed."
I think Erika is infecting us with full-moon-itis!

McAfee Avert Labs has found a false detection with JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen and will be releasing the 5729 DAT Files to correct this issue. The false detection is being seen on websites containing certain types of javascript obfuscation
see: http://vil.mcafeesecurity.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This year reminds me of 2006 with how deformed and ill looking the majority of this basins storms look. Only exception being Bill.

I was thinking 2007 only in that ATL storms I, K, & M all went *poof* mid Basin, O in the Gomex & J too in the N Atl. It's GW LOL
Then there was Noel. Story sound familiar?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1416. Relix
I am pretty sure if the northern COC forms that north then it will quite probably miss PR altogether, at least the center of circulation. Or w/e, I have been following this system for 72 hours NONSTOP... I am tired =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hello

I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.

Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA


working for me :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1413. rxse7en
Are there any African weather stations online that provide radar, rainfall, windspeed, etc.? It'd be interesting to see how intense the blobs coming over Africa are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not working for me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like shear is decreasing simply looking at the satellite images of the new convection and convection to the southwest of the newer and stronger center of low pressure. This southern band of convection could be the beginning of a southern outflow channel. It is trying to spiral in towards the new ball of convection. She is ready to take off again and this northern relocation will help her stay away from shear.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3793
Quoting Baybuddy:
Yea, I've been hit through glasses before. It is best to lay in a dark room so your eyes dont try to focus. Take care of it.


I have tried that and could not stand it because I was not here LOL I was "Nutz" because of it....

So just wondering what you thought about this storm????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


No real indication of circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
I'm working on an analysis.

I haven't answered anyone, as I am having a problem quoting folks...I click on qoute, and their post doesn't show in the comment box. Anyone else having trouble?
Evening Sir Storm, quote check, Looks like no problemo for me. Can't wait to read your analysis.:)
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hello

I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.

Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA


working for me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
Hello

I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.

Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Erika is blowing up again
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
1404. Dakster
Quoting Chucktown:


Hey Dak. We're leading with it during every show, but just making sure everyone is aware of whats out there, especially with a holiday weekend coming up. Honestly, not to concerned with Erika. If it goes NW across the Bahamas, shear city. Stays WNW, too much land interaction. If Erika were to survive it needs to take the low road, through the Caribbean. I think NHC has a good handle on it.


Thanks for the reply... Glad to see/hear about responsible reporting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1403. centex
Quoting Chicklit:
Now I've got a Trojan that is "generic packed."
I think Erika is infecting us with full-moon-itis!
You will also noticed the double click for quote stops working.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3233
here drakoen and in the ramdsis images Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now I've got a Trojan that is "generic packed."
I think Erika is infecting us with full-moon-itis!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11272
Quoting Dakster:
Good Evening Chucktown.

How are you local mets handling Erika in your kneck of the woods. Now is the time I expect local media to talk about her.


Hey Dak. We're leading with it during every show, but just making sure everyone is aware of whats out there, especially with a holiday weekend coming up. Honestly, not to concerned with Erika. If it goes NW across the Bahamas, shear city. Stays WNW, too much land interaction. If Erika were to survive it needs to take the low road, through the Caribbean. I think NHC has a good handle on it.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Drakoen, the northern COC is becoming more dominant in each frame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1398. 7544
yep shes getting ready to get dreess for the dmax
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6750
Now is the time to give. Portlight Stratagies,Inc 2043 Maybank Hwy. Charleston, S.C. 29445 or go to HTTP://www.portlight.org/ To give by credit card. Portlight is there after a disaster! To help! With your help portlight will be there again..thank you. When I post this I give! Will you give to? Please! Star
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. Drakoen
Quoting THUNDERPR:
SHIP S 0000 18.00 -58.70 227 56 120 39.0knts - 8.2 8.0 - - 29.97 +0.03
East of the new ball of convection at 8pm.


Where did you get that info from?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting Baybuddy:
I think I have the virus too! I just checked my e-mail and StormTop is trying to sell me Viagra.


They don't call him Stormtop for nothing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yea, I've been hit through glasses before. It is best to lay in a dark room so your eyes dont try to focus. Take care of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To make things more interesting DPAS miss Erika tonight. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shouldn't be hEbeirs Box?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1391. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
here's a new one, Virus-casters, lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8301
SHIP S 0000 18.00 -58.70 227 56 120 39.0knts - 8.2 8.0 - - 29.97 +0.03
East of the new ball of convection at 8pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1388. centex
Quoting StormW:
I'm working on an analysis.

I haven't answered anyone, as I am having a problem quoting folks...I click on qoute, and their post doesn't show in the comment box. Anyone else having trouble?
Yes started today, I had it with another pc today that had the virus blocking message. Not had yet with this pc but suspect if I keep it up it will start on this one to.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3233

Viewing: 1437 - 1387

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.