Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1787. Patrap


1140. JeffMasters (Admin) 7:12 PM CDT on September 02, 2009

Quoting JeffMasters:
Many of you using the McAfee virus protection software reported today that wunderground web pages were triggering a Trojan virus alert.
Our thought at this point, from looking at the tickets, is that McAfee updated their virus files today and they've once again included JavaScript that is compressed with the compression tools we use, in their list. This is a false alarm.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting mobilegirl81:
The NHC is saying it will probably become a depression or dissapate because it is the only logical explanantion without saying "We don't know".


Ridiculous post.
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Anyone else want to take a swing at summing the week up so far?
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1784. SykKid
Quoting KC2NOLA:
Quick question- I know Erika is forecasted to go over DR/Haiti and basically fall apart..but what if it tracks north or south of the island? Is her fate relatively the same?


Then she will still get torn apart by shear. She's finnished either way.
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Quoting Vortex95:


You think a S-TD OR TD could form in 24 hrs?


As unpredictable as she's been I would say STD. LOL
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1782. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


WTNT01 KNGU 030301
WARNING ATCN MIL 06L NAT 090903020947

2009090300 06L ERIKA 006 01 250 08 SATL 060
T000 160N 0620W 035 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 164N 0638W 035 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 170N 0655W 030
T036 180N 0670W 030
T048 185N 0685W 030
T072 200N 0710W 025
T096 220N 0730W 020
AMP
#0001
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 62.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 62.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.4N 63.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.0N 65.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0N 67.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5N 68.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0N 71.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.0N 73.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 62.4W
OR APPROX 70NM WSW OF GUADELOUPE.
RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS: 180NM NE, 120NM SE, 00NM SW, 00NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030901Z, 031501Z, 032101Z AND 040301Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0609082612 114N 195W 20
0609082618 111N 210W 20
0609082700 109N 226W 25
0609082706 107N 241W 20
0609082712 103N 263W 25
0609082718 102N 288W 25
0609082800 103N 302W 25
0609082806 105N 320W 25
0609082812 107N 340W 25
0609082818 108N 360W 25
0609082900 108N 378W 25
0609082906 107N 392W 25
0609082912 107N 406W 25
0609082918 106N 420W 25
0609083000 108N 435W 25
0609083006 112N 451W 25
0609083012 120N 471W 25
0609083018 127N 486W 25
0609083100 134N 499W 25
0609083106 139N 510W 25
0609083112 145N 523W 25
0609083118 151N 536W 25
0609090100 156N 549W 30
0609090106 160N 560W 30
0609090112 164N 566W 35
0609090118 167N 573W 45
0609090200 169N 580W 50
0609090200 169N 580W 50
0609090206 165N 588W 45
0609090212 164N 600W 40
0609090218 163N 612W 35
0609090300 160N 620W 35
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
No. It's because of mcafee that you are getting the false detection:
McAfee Avert Labs has found a false detection with JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen and will be releasing the 5729 DAT Files to correct this issue. The false detection is being seen on websites containing certain types of javascript obfuscation."
The have corrected it so you need to do your mcafee update
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting SykKid:
Just die already Erika.

now ur # 39 i just about had it with u
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The Macafee thing is a false positive, not a real trojan.

I tried updating Macafee but it's still doing it...
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at the risk of not sounding dumb is it possible for a storm to split in two , i have never seen that happen too many reasons for it not to happen , but really can it happen?
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Quoting bluehaze27:
it's js/exploit-packed. something or other. I think someone attached this trojan to the site. At least Mcafee is catching it and removing it. Thanks
No. It's because of mcafee that you are getting the false detection:
McAfee Avert Labs has found a false detection with JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen and will be releasing the 5729 DAT Files to correct this issue. The false detection is being seen on websites containing certain types of javascript obfuscation."
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
The NHC is saying it will probably become a depression or dissapate because it is the only logical explanantion without saying "We don't know".
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Quoting Patrap:
The Ne GOM should be Monitored if ya want to see a Genesis area form the Next 24...

Could be Tropical or Sub depending on which Side it Develops on,The GOM or Atlantic.



Looks like a weak ULL there that has kinda worked its way down to the surface, based on vort maps on CIMSS. It has some shear above it (20-30kt), but if the weak anticyclone currently over the southern Bahamas can work its way across FL, it might find itself in a decent environment to strengthen.

850mb Vorticity


200mb Vorticity


Overall shear - note the anticyclone over the Bahamas.


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Quoting snow2fire:
StormW - I'm somewhat familiar with finite element analysis and some of the meshless methods for stress/strain. Things get complicated quickly and it's burns up computing power. It's hard to understand the models equations unless you're very familiar with the underlying math.

My version of finite elements...in storm surge modeling.
ADCIRC grid example:
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@1762, the thing is, when systems that are already weak and disorganized hit hispanola...they die.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS SPECIAL EDITION SEP. 02, 2009 ISSUED 10:00 P.M. EDT


Thank You Storm!! Everyone have a great night.
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1771. KC2NOLA
Quick question- I know Erika is forecasted to go over DR/Haiti and basically fall apart..but what if it tracks north or south of the island? Is her fate relatively the same?
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I think Patrap has me on ignore or somthing... :(
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I believe Dr. Master's mentioned in his previous blog that something may develop off the N/S Carolina coast, but be steered quickly towards the northeast.
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it's js/exploit-packed. something or other. I think someone attached this trojan to the site. At least Mcafee is catching it and removing it. Thanks
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If the LLC struggle persist through tomorrow it is possible that PR will be a major contributing factor in the final outcome. This may make the southern route through the carribean a more likely scenario.
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1766. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #22
TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
3:00 AM UTC September 3 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: "Jimena" Weakens Into A Tropical Storm

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jimena (988 hPa) located at 27.0N 112.3W or 20 NM south of Santa Rosalia, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
120 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for the Baja California Peninsula north of Puerto San Andresito to San Jose de Las Palomas on the west coast.. and north of Loreto to Bahia de Los Angeles on the east coast

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is also in effect for northwestern mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 27.9N 112.8W - 45 kts (Overland TS)
24 HRS: 28.1N 113.5W - 35 kts (Overland TS)
48 HRS: 27.9N 114.7W - 25 kts (Low Pressure Area)
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There is still a sharp frontal boundary there in the GOM, so it would be probably be an extra tropical or sub tropical storm if it formed in the gulf.
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1764. SykKid
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


See the northern coc forming within the newly rounded convection on the northern side. Outflow is excellent in all quadrants according to forecast Avila with wind shear below that layer of outflow. I am going to bed and I will be excited to what I find tomorrow, just because of the uncertainty of Erika.


How can you be excited over something that looks so pitiful?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

lol..Niiiice
That said, all eyes glance toward the east and heads turn to Africa for the next week's hoped for adventure!

thanks, and yeah definitely
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I don't see how Hispaniola could kill Erika when there are more than one circulation centers present, unless they both happened to make a direct hit on the island. If one hits the island, even the main center, the other becoming dominate seems inevitable..... I don't think the models have the ability to account for this type of scenario occurring.
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1761. jipmg
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
** WTNT31 KNHC 030241 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


Lets see what happens with the northern swirl, that based on satellite has completely absorbed "erika"s center
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Quoting tornadodude:


Week in Review:
WOW. thats all i can say. Westcasters, wishcasters, fishcasters, floridacasters, dumbcasters, GOMcasters, (insert word here)-casters, etc, all united to bring a rather tumultuous scenario to this blog so far this week, which featured numerous Erika scenarios, many plates of crow, and a banning of StormW. well as wednesday comes to an end, the chances of knowing how this blog will behave are about the same as knowing what Erika will do. I do say this: thank you everyone for your continued insight into the vast, eventful, and often confusing tropical discussion. thats all xD
-Matt

lol..Niiiice
That said, all eyes glance toward the east and heads turn to Africa for the next week's hoped for adventure!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1759. Patrap
Quoting BDADUDE:
Erika (pronounced Ereeka) has dumbfounded the experts. Nobody seems to have a clue where she is going to any certainty. But people still argue with each other about her final destination. The best way to forecast this storm would probably be to throw a dart at a map of the eastern atlantic!!


Well sport..read on ,lots of us have been on top of Erika,..No Pun Intended.

...Hiss,Snicker..Coff
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
StormW - I'm somewhat familiar with finite element analysis and some of the meshless methods for stress/strain. Things get complicated quickly and it's burns up computing power. It's hard to understand the models equations unless you're very familiar with the underlying math.
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1741 bluhaze

Let me guess...You can't quote anyone, the hide/show post button doesn't work among other things?

One other guess...You're using McAfee?

Try to update your McAfee.
http://vil.mcafeesecurity.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm

I tried and it didn't help. I tink it's because I'm using the free McAfee thru Cox Security Suite.

Good luck.
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Quoting Patrap:
The Ne GOM should be Monitored if ya want to see a Genesis area form the Next 24...

Could be Tropical or Sub depending on which Side it Develops on,The GOM or Atlantic.




You think a S-TD OR TD could form in 24 hrs?
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Now I can quote, but I can't show hidden posts. ;)

Something is still blocking scripts?
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OK I have had enough for the night.... All I needed was StormW to fill me in and the 11pm Outlook.... Thank You Storm for all you do here....

Have A Great Nite and will see everyone tomorrow afternoon....

Taco :0)
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
care to do a week in review? lol


Week in Review:
WOW. thats all i can say. Westcasters, wishcasters, fishcasters, floridacasters, dumbcasters, GOMcasters, (insert word here)-casters, etc, all united to bring a rather tumultuous scenario to this blog so far this week, which featured numerous Erika scenarios, many plates of crow, and a banning of StormW. well as wednesday comes to an end, the chances of knowing how this blog will behave are about the same as knowing what Erika will do. I do say this: thank you everyone for your continued insight into the vast, eventful, and often confusing tropical discussion. thats all xD
-Matt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


See the northern coc forming within the newly rounded convection on the northern side. Outflow is excellent in all quadrants according to forecast Avila with wind shear below that layer of outflow. I am going to bed and I will be excited to what I find tomorrow, just because of the uncertainty of Erika.
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1751. Patrap
What most are forgetting is that this is a LARGE Cv Circ that has always had Multiple CoC's within the Mean Overall Circ..thats whats been its problem from Genesis.
What its doing is the same as Last evening..One coc is trying to Dominate.

Until One does in the Center of the Overall Mean Circ..it will repeat the last 24,or spin Out,.or Consolidate a New central CoC in the end.


Im in agreement that she will spin Out and go diffuse,as per the NHC


00 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
false alarm. update your mcafee.. they fixed it
From the McAfee site:
"McAfee Avert Labs has found a false detection with JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen and will be releasing the 5729 DAT Files to correct this issue. The false detection is being seen on websites containing certain types of javascript obfuscation."

Link to the discussion:
http://community.mcafee.com/showthread.php?s=16bf755cc4c8811cbdc3d8491064d1ae&p=577163#post5771 63


http://vil.mcafeesecurity.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1749. Drakoen
For what it's worth the NAM continues to show Erika developing north of PR is somewhat favorable conditions.
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1748. Brillig
Here is hurricane hunter data for Erika from 1625Z to 2328Z, the last run. The start of the flight was at top, left. The end was just ESE of the start.

Instead of the normal flags, I've shown the data by drawing lines perpendicular to how the flags would be displayed. This way, the lines point to the center of the storm. The length of the line is determined by the wind strength. Stronger wind means longer line.

So you can tell at a glance which part of the storm is strongest, and where each part "thinks" the center is.

The lines go through their centers, so spots this technique thinks are centers are filled with lines radiating away.

Near the start of the flight there is a center near 16.8N, 61W. From about an hour after that through the rest of the graph, it looks like the center is pretty consistently at 15.8N, 62W for most of the storm.

This is the same data I posted a few hours ago. I just updated the graph with data through the end of the flight. I was missing the last loop and on through landing before.

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Quoting bluehaze27:
I keep getting a "trojan horse" blocked by my Mcafee program only when on this site. Anyone else have this issue.
false alarm. update your mcafee.. they fixed it
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1746. SykKid
Just die already Erika.
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1745. BDADUDE
Erika (pronounced Ereeka) has dumbfounded the experts. Nobody seems to have a clue where she is going to any certainty. But people still argue with each other about her final destination. The best way to forecast this storm would probably be to throw a dart at a map of the eastern atlantic!!
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Quoting Vortex95:
Well this thing will be dead within 64 hrs the ways its going. Thank goodness. May have to watch for what Pat is looking at. May be starting to brew in a couple days time.


I mean a remnant low.
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1743. Patrap
The Ne GOM should be Monitored if ya want to see a Genesis area form the Next 24...

Could be Tropical or Sub depending on which Side it Develops on,The GOM or Atlantic.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Erika has an impressive pair here, both areas blowing up with convection.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5673
I keep getting a "trojan horse" blocked by my Mcafee program only when on this site. Anyone else have this issue.
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Avilla sounds frustrated himself...
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Sorry folks, but I dont think Erika is finished. Its still there and and not going away. Atmospheric conditions can change in a night.

What that means for us "ricans" lots of rain a weakening depression or a developing storm?
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Are hurricane hunters currently investigating the storm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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