Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.


Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2887 - 2837

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Hi everyone. So what have I missed since earlier this morning.. Besides the usual annoyance..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PGA and full time in Fox Trail Community Loxahatchee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning gang!

I have been lurking a lot lately and not posting, but if we simply put the trolls on ignore, we wouldn't see them.

Anyway, it seems as though Ericka is still heading west, bypassing ever advisory that moves her north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iluvjess:
"Thanks to Orca who pointed it out without burning me."

I think Orca is a little more mature than some of the other above forementioned name callers. Don't let the children bother you. We all make mistakes... carry on.


:)

I'm used to it... I ask a lot in a Precalculus II class I'm taking, and people laugh at me like I'm an idiot. What they don't know is that I passed the 1st part with a B+, mostly by asking my "dumb questions" and not being afraid to fail.

This other dude yesterday started laughing at me because I said in Chemistry class that chlorine used in Clorox, and yes, Clorox itself in a small proportion, is used to kill bateria in tanks with no water circulation. People actually laughed with him.

:)

I guess when he finds himself on the bad end of a 'cane depending on a stale reserve of water...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormno:
lol erica has about as much of a chance as the SAINTS going to the superbowl...Stormno

Holy Mackrel!!Einstein is in the house, no need for anyone else to comment! Deal is done!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Multi-platform becoming better defined since 6Z

2880. ssmate
lol erica has about as much of a chance as the SAINTS going to the superbowl...Stormno

That seals it. When I'm in Vegas next week I'm bettin the house on the Saints. I always figure the direct opposite of what you say has to be true. I'm going to be rich!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2879. LUCARIO
erika is like a texas cockroach
she will not die
she doesn't want to die
never turn your back on a storm til its in land
then still don't trust them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't believe Erika is still there!! I thought she would be gone by now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormno:
i really think patrap see between the lines he is a very intelligent guy..Stormno


10-4, just joking. I'm a Dolphins fan, so we're feeling froggy...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicofcancer:

Why are Ike's comment "obnoxious"?
He has been reporting facts about Erika like the wind speed in the closest islands her and the pressure stated in the advisories. He is not making any of this up not making any of this up, you can look for yourself.


Don't think it's "what" he's reporting as much as "how" he's reporting it. Stating opinions (not just facts) as absolutes and laughing at others who may see things differently can be considered by others to be obnoxious. So can all caps and overuse of !!!!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iluvjess:
Some people on here that claim to know the most continue to demonstrate their lack of maturity through name calling (wishcasters, eastcasters, etc.) In doing so they continue to destroy their own credibility.

i agree. some of the ones who are supposed to be the best on here have been all wrong from jump on path of erika, but still treat people who don't think like the models like children. well sometimes children make grate sense
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2874. Relix
Gonna log off now. Maybe when I come back it will have 90MPH winds.... XD! JK!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2872. Prgal
Quoting tropicofcancer:


Why are Ike's comment "obnoxious"?
He has been reporting facts about Erika like the wind speed in the closest islands her and the pressure stated in the advisories. He is not making any of this up not making any of this up, you can look for yourself.


People from the islands are reading this blog even if they dont comment. Comments like the ones he is doing about "RIP Erika" might let people think that its over and that they dont need to pay any attention at all. I think that what serial is trying to say is that we should let the REAL experts decide about the fate of the system and I think its wise to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
Don't worry about him sindy he does not have credibility on here. Just a troublemaker


That's funny, I can't see his comments...wonder why? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormno:
lol erica has about as much of a chance as the SAINTS going to the superbowl...Stormno

eat dirt
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting stormno:
lol erica has about as much of a chance as the SAINTS going to the superbowl...Stormno


Uh oh. You better hope Patrap has had his coffee...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Frederic island hopped and emerge off of Cuba as a depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2867. LUCARIO
Quoting stormno:
lol erica has about as much of a chance as the SAINTS going to the superbowl...Stormno


then they are going to the super bowl
Erika is a monster in the making.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2866. LUCARIO
Quoting TropicalGenesis:
Does it appear as Erika is re-organizing again a bit to the south of the current center?


yes, she is going west too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'morning, all!


Good Morning WeatherStudent. No school today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
did the wind shear go down to 30kts from 40kts from previuos maps?

Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
Quoting Relix:


They are checking. Can you really stop the obnoxious LOL RIP comments please? Let the pros decide what to do. Geesh.


Why are Ike's comment "obnoxious"?
He has been reporting facts about Erika like the wind speed in the closest islands her and the pressure stated in the advisories. He is not making any of this up not making any of this up, you can look for yourself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2861. divdog
Quoting stormno:
Stormno
Don't worry about him sindy he does not have credibility on here. Just a troublemaker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orca is on the top of the list for positive contribitors to this blog. Very dependable graphics, and very helpful. Thanks as always Orca...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, so is it safe, at this point to say good bye to Erika, or does she still have a fighting chance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'morning, all!

Good Morning!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


You never make mistakes, I reckon...?

Thanks to Orca who pointed it out without burning me.


Its easier to help people learn if you don't beat them over the head with a stick and make fun of them... go figure..it worked with me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfsidesindy:


I haven't seen a Texascaster in awhile...
Quoting surfsidesindy:


I haven't seen a Texascaster in awhile...
It's 72 degrees here in Galveston this morning. I don't know how these fronts play out when it comes to tropical weather, but I can't see anything coming this way based on past experience. I don't know anything about weather so go easy on me. Just a novice opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2853. LBAR
I hope the nothern Leewards get some good rains at least. They have been in a drought for a while...at least that's what a friend in Antiqua told me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ssmate:
I think there should be a limit of one 'dude' reference in any post.

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Thanks to Orca who pointed it out without burning me."

I think Orca is a little more mature than some of the other above forementioned name callers. Don't let the children bother you. We all make mistakes... carry on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Some of the comments on here...talk about wishcasters.


First time I've seen a Texascaster in awhile...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


LOL! "Only uses 1010mb's"??????

That's the latest vortex message on this website.

Your comments are so laughable. Thanks...I needed it.


You never make mistakes, I reckon...?

Thanks to Orca who pointed it out without burning me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLGirl1:
Long time lurker from Palm Beach area, just thought I would throw this info out...I think Crown Weather has great storm information here is there update for this morning... Link

TY for link! Very interesting!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dude!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Morning All!

Looks like there is much less shear just below of the outflow layer from this mornings sounding from Saint Martin:

Saint Marting Sounding

However, San Juan sounding still showing 20kts of Southwest Shear at 250mb which is in the path of Erika though:

San Juan Puerto Rico Sounding


I'm trying my best to make sense of the sheer maps, and to my untrained eye, it looks like if the sheer deviates just a tad, and Erika hangs on and gets past it (HUGE IFs, I know!), she would have clear sailing through 144 hrs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2845. ssmate
I think there should be a limit of one 'dude' reference in any post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


True. Also, she is now not expected to go over Hispaniola, but through the Mona passage which i mentioned last night. Should not be much in the way of land interaction, but the shear is supposed to be high.


Yeah, though I wouldn't put too much fuel into that, cuz Hispaniola and Mona is still far away. In terms of forecast. I now believe that a south-from-PR passage is more confident, not over land but sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some people on here that claim to know the most continue to demonstrate their lack of maturity through name calling (wishcasters, eastcasters, etc.) In doing so they continue to destroy their own credibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2842. RJT185
Crazy storm, keeping everyone on their toes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLGirl1:
Long time lurker from Palm Beach area, just thought I would throw this info out...I think Crown Weather has great storm information here is there update for this morning... Link


Hey, that is a pretty nice looking site! Lots of images. Hope you don't get busted for posting the competition though. I'm down here in Lantana; you on the island?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Some of the comments on here...talk about wishcasters.


You have to admit.. some make you laugh.. some make you beat your head against your keyboard.. but its also enlightening and refreshing at times. Everyone starts as a newbie sometime. I would be afraid to go and look at some of my questions from the first year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2887 - 2837

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.