Tropical Storm Erika's future highly uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

The tropical wave we were calling Invest 94 finally decided to stop dawdling and become Tropical Storm Erika yesterday. However, Erika seems intent upon keeping us guessing about its intentions, as the storm's future track and intensity remain highly uncertain. After a modest burst of intensification to a 60 mph tropical storm last night, Erika has become quite disorganized this morning. The Hurricane Hunters found multiple swirling centers inside Erika early this morning, and the main center took a jump to the southwest to relocate itself under a batch of intense thunderstorms. The exact location and path of Erika remain uncertain at this point, and it is possible the storm will have another center relocation later today. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. Why, then, is Erika so disorganized? The trouble with the various wind shear analyses we use is that they take a crude average of winds over a thick layer to arrive at an average shear, and this large-scale average shear does not capture thin layers of shear that can dramatically affect a tropical cyclone. Upper air data from Guadeloupe and Saint Martin from last night show a complicated shear pattern in Erika's region, with 30 knot winds out of the south to southwest at 200 mb height, nearly calm winds between 300 - 500 mb, and northeasterly winds of 10 - 20 knots from the surface to 500 mb. Some extremely dry air with humidities near 10% was present in a thin layer near 600 mb on the Guadeloupe sounding, so dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is probably being injected by a northeasterly jet of wind into the core of Erika. The shear of 30 knots at the top of the storm is ripping away the heat and moisture Erika's thunderstorms are lifting there, and the result of the shear and dry air is a very disorganized tropical storm.

Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the future track of the storm will depend greatly upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. Given the complicated nature of the wind shear pattern in the region, it is difficult to forecast how strong Erika will get. Virtually anything can happen over the next five days, from dissipation (as forecast by the ECMWF model) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Large-scale wind shear is expected to increase to 20 - 25 knots between 3 - 4 days from now, so Erika will have to deal with an increasing amount of adversity. The storm is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast, particularly if the storm stays weak over the next three days. Potential landfall solutions from the models range from Florida on Tuesday (GFS model) to North Carolina on Wednesday (Canadian model).


Figure 1. Morning image of Tropical Storm Erika, showing a false center over Guadaloupe--one of several surface swirls the Hurricane Hunters found in the storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave off the coast of Africa we were watching on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low chance of developing into a tropical depression has been done in by the dry air of the Sahara, and is no longer a threat to develop. A large and well-organized tropical wave will emerge from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and several of the models develop this low into a tropical depression by early next week. The remains of an old cold front off the coast of North Carolina could serve as a breeding ground for some tropical development Friday or Saturday, but anything that forms in this region would get swept quickly northeastward into New England by Sunday without enough time to become a tropical depression.

Hurricane Jimena nears Baja
Hurricane Jimena has steadily weakened over the past day, and is now down to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The storm should continue to steadily weaken over the next 24 hours as the waters under the hurricane cool from 28°C to 27°C. Jimena is battering a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast, and largely spared the tourist mecca on the southern tip of Baja. It now appears unlikely that moisture from Jimena will reach the Southwestern U.S., and the hurricane appears poised to stall out over Baja and die five days from now.


Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.


Figure 3. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

I'll have an update by 4pm this afternoon, when the data from the next hurricane hunter flight into Erika will be available.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 111 - 61

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

They are still seeing the dry air:
500mb RH in color shading shows less than 50% RH all around Erika.

Could have made it easier on y'all and put up that the RH plot is the 06 Z GFS nowcast. Sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:


great looking map there... where did you find that one?

nice to see other sources like thisshowing her true path
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Advisory 1 to 1a
21GMT 09/01/09 17.2N 57.3W
00GMT 09/02/09 17.2N 57.3W
0north to 0south ... Stationary

Advisory 1a to 2
00GMT 09/02/09 17.2N 57.3W
03GMT 09/02/09 17.5N 57.6W
3north to 3west ... InvTan(3/3/cos17.5) = 46.357degrees north of W
heading 1.357degrees north of NW

Advisory 2 to 2a
03GMT 09/02/09 17.5N 57.6W
06GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 58.7W
5south to 11west ... InvTan(5/11/cos17) = 25.42degrees south of W
heading 2.92degrees south of WSW

Advisory 2a to 3
06GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 58.7W
09GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 59.0W
0north to 3west ... heading due West

Advisory 3 to 3a
09GMT 09/02/09 17.0N 59.0W
12GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 59.5W
5south to 5west ... InvTan(5/5/cos16.5) = 46.2degrees south of W
heading 1.2degrees south of SW

Advisory 3a to 4
12GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 59.5W
15GMT 09/02/09 16.5N 60.4W
0north to 9west ... heading due West

In other words, jitterbugging like crazy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the old people have a saying in trinidad. No one can tell a hurricane where to go and where not to go. they have a mind of their own and will do anything they feel like doing...Let it be. All you can do is prepare.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
105. IKE
5 day weakens it to a depression....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting keys33070:



I have 3 children under 5, if ever a true rish comes we will not stick around. I also have to add that rescue personnel should NEVER be required to go out in a major storm. There, in most situations, is plenty of time to flee. Lives should not be risked due to stupidity.

OK, good. Initial impressions were not so level-headed. Sorry.
Glad yours is screwed on better that it first appeared.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a joke on her inpredictability.
Quoting rwdobson:


No, that's not what I was saying at all. The opposite in fact. Your best bet is always to follow the main runs. All the ensemble runs tell you is what the possible error can be.



Just a joke on her inpredictability.
Quoting midgulfmom:
With that "false center" and "real center" it seems we have the Two Faces of Erika... She's unpredictable at the moment.


She is playing hard to get.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap, #38, great satellite capture. Where did you find that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NARCHER:
next recon flight?




Yo,this isnt a Drive thru where one orders fries with the HH Pod,go to the NHC site,google it if ya cant find it,use NHC and click,..then on the Left side of the NHC Site,..look for Aircraft recon..and Click there,and see the HH Plan of the Day,..or POD.

Thanx and drive around please,..Oh..that'll be 6.99
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Doah!! Ike is gonna look like a genius again!!

"MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

sarcasm: Yeah. I heard the same thing around NOLA up until 4 years ago. Goofy people fleeing a big thunderstorm.
Not sarcasm: Please don't risk the lives of rescue personnel when it happens. Just go quietly.



I have 3 children under 5, if ever a true rish comes we will not stick around. I also have to add that rescue personnel should NEVER be required to go out in a major storm. There, in most situations, is plenty of time to flee. Lives should not be risked due to stupidity.
Quoting 69Viking:
Thanks for the update Doc, you have just confirmed what I wrote below but posted on the old blog!

For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.


Its not that were discounting her moving SW it is the fact that we've been saying that her center relocated to a different location. One needs to be careful when classifying a center reformation in relation to what is a true movement over a 6 hour period. If you look at what the original center initialization was from yesterday it continued to the west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With that "false center" and "real center" it seems we have the Two Faces of Erika... She's unpredictable at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92. IKE
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.............


Okay....next?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
This storm sort of reminds me of Bertha in 96'. It's still early, but it looks like it may be a SC-NC storm to me if anything. I doubt Florida will be struck, but who knows.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
must stop lurking now. Have a nice day everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting keys33070:




So it may be our best bet with Erika to follow the ensemble models.


No, that's not what I was saying at all. The opposite in fact. Your best bet is always to follow the main runs. All the ensemble runs tell you is what the possible error can be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rwdobson:


Hmm, I thought the models had specific input at all levels of the atmosphere and would have better info that than...but their performance shows otherwise. I guess that's only true in places (like over the CONUS) where there is decent upper air data. That also must be a reason why the G4 data makes the models better...

They are still seeing the dry air:
500mb RH in color shading shows less than 50% RH all around Erika.


Compared to sounding in SW MO this morning nearly saturated through 400 mb:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Virtually anything can happen over the next five days. Thanks Dr.; that makes me feel much better....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting apocalyps:
Erika will probably drift into the carribean.
And will play with us for days.Weaker,stronger,weaker,stronger...... untill it gets into better environment and explodes.


this coincides nicely with your screen name lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of past storms, check out the history on the Wunderground tropical page. NONE of the storms hit the east coast of Florida. They mostly stayed south and hit Tex/Mex or went to sea. A couple hit the Mobile/Pensacola area.

Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it is an interesting graphic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind in Barbados SSW at 30-40KM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
82. IKE
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS
DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

A 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS...AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 60.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 16.9N 61.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 64.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.6N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 30 KT


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Winds down to 40mph....

ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


exactly.Erika will just keep on drifting west.
Way to disorganized to go NW.
It will drift into the carribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Currently she is trying to get rid of the multiple centers and there appears to be a main one in the northwest convection. THis convection is expanding and likely to be over the center and this could signify another intensification process. Due to the weakening currently of Erika, a track similar to what I discussed several days ago seems probable, but I was too quick to jump off that track as she was intensifying last night, this is sign possibly that Erika has a potential to be a Katrina, Rita or Wilma in the aspect that we had no idea what these three storms were doing. If Erika makes it still breathing to the NW Caribbean Sea shear should be decreasing and OHC is hot, hot, hot and deep. Very good ingredients for extreme rapid intensification. However the atmospheric conditions some three to five days out are trouble some at best. Once Erika can get rid of the multiple centers and develop vertically she should handle the dry air and shear a little easier. Questions still remain about the shear pattern evolution. So intensity and forecast track are something I am not going to guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rwdobson:


It's a little more than that. The "main" computer model runs are the very best estimate. They have the best estimates of input data and are run at the highest resolution.

The ensemble models are run at a lower resolution, with input data changed to reflect possible errors within the original input data. This is done to give a "what if" idea of the range of possibilities. They do not show the best estimate, however.





So it may be our best bet with Erika to follow the ensemble models.
Quoting keys33070:
I have lived in the Keys for almost 4 years and I have yet to see anything to get bothered over. Last year they had a mandatory evac for all visitors, what a joke. We sat and laughed at the news crews filming the slight movement of palm leaves, and tipping trash cans.

sarcasm: Yeah. I heard the same thing around NOLA up until 4 years ago. Goofy people fleeing a big thunderstorm.
Not sarcasm: Please don't risk the lives of rescue personnel when it happens. Just go quietly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SQUAWK:


Not only that but the models are using the broad brush shear for their input. That is probably a very good reason that they haven't a clue as to what this storm is going to do.


Hmm, I thought the models had specific input at all levels of the atmosphere and would have better info that than...but their performance shows otherwise. I guess that's only true in places (like over the CONUS) where there is decent upper air data. That also must be a reason why the G4 data makes the models better...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
76. IKE
Winds down to 40mph....

ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
next recon flight?
TS Erika Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since everyone seems to compare past storms, here you go. Beware the Ide's Of Heberts Box
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Statement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 AM AST WED SEP 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
OUR AREA...HOWEVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS THEY ARE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS STORM...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AS THIS STORM CONTINUES IT TRACK WEST OR
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 16.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX. ERIKA
HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH AND A WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHILE THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.

IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok. Here's my 2 cents. FWIW.Looking at this you can see that big ridge all over the east coast, thru Fl, into the gulf, ending in the SW LA. Now, at the end of the run look off the SE coast. You can see they think there will still be enough of a trough to cause a weakness in the ridge and pull the storm out to sea. That is good for everyone. The only thing got me nervous is the size of that ridge in this year of troughs. However, the slower she goes, maybe the better for the gulf from west to east. Because if you look above Texas you can see a small trough, forget what they're called. And a bigger one farther west. So maybe if shes slow enough and does head for the gulf the troughs can weaken the ridge. Only thing is, Where?

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting rwdobson:
"The trouble with the various wind shear analyses we use is that they take a crude average of winds over a thick layer to arrive at an average shear, and this large-scale average shear does not capture thin layers of shear that can dramatically affect a tropical cyclone."

Glad Dr M made this point, as it is clearly not understood a lot of posters during the last few days.

Sometimes you just have to use your eyes and look at sattelite images to see the shear.


Not only that but the models are using the broad brush shear for their input. That is probably a very good reason that they haven't a clue as to what this storm is going to do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have lived in the Keys for almost 4 years and I have yet to see anything to get bothered over. Last year they had a mandatory evac for all visitors, what a joke. We sat and laughed at the news crews filming the slight movement of palm leaves, and tipping trash cans.
Thanks for the update Doc, you have just confirmed what I wrote below but posted on the old blog!

For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erika will probably drift into the carribean.
And will play with us for days.Weaker,stronger,weaker,stronger...... untill it gets into better environment and explodes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
62. IKE
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Erika still has quite a long way to go structurally.



Agree....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:


nothing to do with track, etc... just how frustrating it was when it lingered so long in the same general area without ramping up or down ... just hung out and caused Blog-fatigue

OK,dats cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 111 - 61

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.