Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2009

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Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.


Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)
Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.
Backing Down
getting out (Fotoguy77)
This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.
getting out

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3810. hurrizone
7:32 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Erika is a unpredectible storm. NHC have a headache from this and is almost impossible to forecast already.Hope not to reorganize again quickly but nobody knows.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
3809. Brillig
6:43 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
and by the way moving wsw!!


I make it WNW, roughly.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
3808. Brillig
6:43 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Looks like a well-defined COC this time, so I'm changing the path line back to a solid line.

16°35'59.21"N 60°51'57.79"W
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
3807. kmanhurricaneman
3:23 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
and by the way moving wsw!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
3806. kmanhurricaneman
3:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
looking at RGB loop it does not appear that the coc is where nhc says it is, coc seems to be displaced from convection area.my best guess is that coc is at 16.2 and 61.5
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
3805. CaneHunter031472
3:16 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting jpsb:
I'm surprised it's held this long! But even after the front lifts the trof will still be around protecting the GoM. If you are on the GoM, the thing to watch is that HUGE trof on the east coast. When that goes away then CV storms have a chance of reaching the GoM.

Now if I were gulfcasting, lol, I say that since Erika is not stacked, (circulation wise that is, lol) she remains unorganized and she might just slide under the upper level steering currents (trof as it lifts and moves east) and continues slowly west, maybe even a little south of west. Then she organizes and makes it into the GoM after the front has lifted.

the above is not likely as Erika is bond to become better organized and the trof is exceptionally strong. Any movement north makes interaction with that trof more certain. Any interaction with Island mountains will likely rip a weak T.S. like Erika apart. So if Erika stays weak and continues west the islands will get her. If the gets strong and goes more north the trof will get her. Shes got one hard road ahead of her if she wants to get into the nice warm gulf waters.


I totally agree, not to mention first that we are experiencing an early Fall in the GOMEX and the whole US maybe for that matter so this fall like pattern should be able to persist. Second Erika is already struggling as it is and I expect for it to take the weaker storm route, but I also dare to say that it will be ripped appart by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola if it hits them and then its remnats should be either absorbed by the trof or redevelop which would then help it interact with the trof and take it NNW. I would be much more concerned about the waves leaving Africa unless of course you live in Puerto RIco which my family including parents and siblings still do.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
3804. lordhuracan01
3:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
3803. lordhuracan01
2:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
.ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
3802. jpsb
2:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting truecajun:


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
I'm surprised it's held this long! But even after the front lifts the trof will still be around protecting the GoM. If you are on the GoM, the thing to watch is that HUGE trof on the east coast. When that goes away then CV storms have a chance of reaching the GoM.

Now if I were gulfcasting, lol, I say that since Erika is not stacked, (circulation wise that is, lol) she remains unorganized and she might just slide under the upper level steering currents (trof as it lifts and moves east) and continues slowly west, maybe even a little south of west. Then she organizes and makes it into the GoM after the front has lifted.

the above is not likely as Erika is bond to become better organized and the trof is exceptionally strong. Any movement north makes interaction with that trof more certain. Any interaction with Island mountains will likely rip a weak T.S. like Erika apart. So if Erika stays weak and continues west the islands will get her. If the gets strong and goes more north the trof will get her. Shes got one hard road ahead of her if she wants to get into the nice warm gulf waters.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
3801. lordhuracan01
2:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
I HOPE NOT HAPPEN THIS

Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
3800. oddspeed
2:43 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting 69Viking:
For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.


that's what i was saying:

Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
3799. midgulfmom
2:42 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting truecajun:


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
I was wondering how long this front would "hang around". A week seems like a long time.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
3798. 69Viking
2:41 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
For all those who are discounting the fact Ericka has indeed moved SW since yesterday please plot her coordinates on a Hurricane Tracking chart and quit denying what is fact. Nobody is saying she will continue on this track but due to the fact she has moved SW during the last 17 hours all forecast tracks will be moved to the West. It's very clear that nobody has a good handle on the track of this storm including the models and the NHC. This will be a fun storm to watch, observe and learn from! Hopefully she just avoids causing any major damage anywhere.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
3797. homelesswanderer
2:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Ok. Here's my 2 cents. FWIW.

Looking at this you can see that big ridge all over the east coast, thru Fl, into the gulf, ending in the SW LA. Now, at the end of the run look off the SE coast. You can see they think there will still be enough of a trough to cause a weakness in the ridge and pull the storm out to sea. That is good for everyone. The only thing got me nervous is the size of that ridge in this year of troughs. However, the slower she goes, maybe the better for the gulf from west to east. Because if you look above Texas you can see a small trough, forget what they're called. And a bigger one farther west. So maybe if shes slow enough and does head for the gulf the troughs can weaken the ridge. Only thing is, Where.

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3796. Bubu77
2:35 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Definitely on but when I see this big mass which advances only has 7km / h towards us I thought that it would go back up northward and it plustot gives the impression of desendre on the last pictures!!
Member Since: May 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3795. ClearwaterSteve
2:33 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Also Thank you Jeff. Question. The other day someone posted a shot of Ericka on a globe. Not sure where it was from. Kind of put it in perspective. Not sure if it was a Sat shot or what.
3794. Seastep
2:31 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3793. ClearwaterSteve
2:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Thank you IKE
3791. Seastep
2:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Here's today's. Patrap's earlier one was 31AUG, but they updated it in between.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT TUE 01 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77......NO CHANGE
A. 02/1800Z, 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 02/1630Z
D. 17.8N 60.7W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2355Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75......NO CHANGE
A. 03/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 03/0445Z
D. 18.5N 62.2W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA - TEAL 70.....ADDED
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03131E JIMENA
C. 03/1200Z
D. 25.1N 112.6W
E. 02/1700Z TO 02/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3790. surfmom
2:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting msphar:
Take a break from the Erika dilemma, consider the poor people of Puerto San Carlos (google map it) who took a direct hit from Jimena last night. I would imagine that place is pretty much destroyed. How sad.


thank you!!!! been wondering about those folks!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
3789. Bubu77
2:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique
Member Since: May 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3788. lordhuracan01
2:29 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
I'M PUTING MY EYES ON THIS THING, BECAUSE HERE IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ONE DROP OF WATER COULD MAKE A CHAOS...
Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
3787. Seastep
2:29 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Never mind. They just updated it.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3786. surfmom
2:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting StormW:


Thanks surfmom...guess it's better than my forecasting?


*smile* -- I think you have both bases covered quite well
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
3785. Seastep
2:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Hunters
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 31 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 17.5N 56.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 01/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0213E JIMENA
C. 01/0915Z
D. 21.5N 110.5W
E. 01/1400Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Patrap - that's yesterday's. For some reason they haven't updated it. Have to look at the "tomorrow plan" link to get today's.

But, not much different, really.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0506A ERIKA
C. 03/1700Z
D. 17.7N 63.57W
E. 03/1715Z TO 03/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0606A ERIKA
C. 04/0500Z
D. 18.3N 64.8W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/1145Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 02/1800Z ON HURRICANE
JIMENA CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1130Z.
JWP
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3784. TheDawnAwakening
2:27 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Thing is, will Erika make it into the NW Caribbean Sea.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
3783. CaneBob
2:27 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Eirka is definitely feeling the effects of dry air and the center has shifted south as have the projected paths for some of the major models. Erika also faces the potential of growing shear ahead of it so it seems that both the intensity and path are still questionable. The odds for that more southerly course for Erika be it a depression, tropical storm or hurricane are increasing.

I look forward to Dr. Master's next update later today.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
3782. homelesswanderer
2:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting jpsb:
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.


GMZ089-021530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM N PANHANDLE TO SOUTH TEXAS
SLOWLY MOVE SE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT
AND THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI.

Sigh! Ssshhh! Lol. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3781. JadeInAntigua
2:25 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting Bubu77:

Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique


Excuser mon français mauvais. C'est important d'écouter les avertissements mais essayer de ne pas paniquer juste encore. Je pense qui'il faut seulement restez vigilant.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
3780. scott1968
2:25 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Erika doing a strip-tease as she approaches the islands....


Thought she was not supposed to hit the Islands? Looks awfully close to me.
3779. fmbill
2:25 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting Seflhurricane:
very likely and the trak will shift southward as well 5 day cone will probably include SE Florida


Until it really "gets going", I doubt the 5-day position of Erika will be close enough to Florida to actually place it in the cone. Maybe by day 6 or 7(?)
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
3778. TheDawnAwakening
2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Wow Erika is a girl that can't make up her mind which is keeping her from strengthening at this time. I really thought she was on her way last night only to throw a curveball at us and say nope not tonight. One looking at the visible imagery there are two center of circulations at the low levels of the atmosphere. One is already on the islands and there is another one within the new convection flareup. One thing is certain with Erika, she can really fire up convection quickly and her atmosphere is moist around her.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
3777. atmoaggie
2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Yeah, it is a derived product, the 850 mb divergence has a bit to do with dry air. Lower level divergence = sinking air = adiabatic heating = dry.

This is a huge area of divergence very near a budding TS...not going to do Erika any favors.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
3776. truecajun
2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting jpsb:
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.


i don't think this front is going to hold past friday. they never hold that long this early in "fall" I'm not saying it's going to enter GOM, but I don't think the front will last much longer.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
3775. taco2me61
2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ivan never was straight up the peninsula, although the cone did cover it at one point.

here is the link



When Ivan was going thru the Islands they had him going up to south FL and then east coast.... aswe all know it kept moving west and was at a lower lat.... but still at that point it was to go up the east coast....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
3774. Prgal
2:23 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
New blog
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3773. Michfan
2:23 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting sarahjola:

watch the news. you know the line they use to show you where the storm has gone and where it will go, well that line went up and down. a big jump down for that matter. i am no expert but it moved sw. no denying that! i have no reason to lie about it. i just think its weird how everyone who is usually right on here has been wrong with this one. another sign that no one can tell what mother nature will do. the only reason i even started to comment was because people were getting mad and being rude to people didn't think that this storm was a fish and didn't believe that it wasn't going to hit the islands. it seems as though the really good ones on here are starting to just go by the nhc instead of instinct


We go by what the facts show us. Model runs and official NHC tracks are going to shift as the center tries to reestablish itself. It has no dead set well defined LLC which we call a center reformation. If there is no well defined center the models have trouble intializing it properly because they use past data that is inputted into them so what you see over a course of 3-6 hours may not be in that current running model. This is why you see alot of shifts after the fact rather than right at that moment.

Nor is the storm vertically stacked. What your seeing is the Mid Level Circulation otherwise known as the MLC being influenced by the mid steering layer. StormW isn't wrong at all.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1666
3772. canehater1
2:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
As long as the current pattern holds in GOMEX
there is very little chance for Erika to move
there. The persistent troughing will eventually move her back out into the Atlantic.
The $64,000 question is when .
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1011
3771. cirrocumulus
2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
just go by the nhc instead of instinct

That's because many times the nhc has enough data and information. Now, however, the nhc has acknowledged that there are unknown "butterfly" factors and so the confidence is low.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
3770. Cavin Rawlins
2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
BASSETERRE, St. Kitts-A slight move to the south for Tropical Storm Erika has caused the tropical storm watch issued for the Federation last night to be upgraded to a warning as of 8 a.m. today (Sept. 2).

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Office as of this morning, the centre of the storm system was located “near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 59.5 west or about 219 miles east of St. Kitts and 223 miles east of Nevis”.

“The system has been moving generally west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles, mainly to the northeast of the centre,” the bulletin further stated.

While Erika had been previous forecast to pass north of St. Kitts-Nevis, a shift in direction and the unpredictability of the storm caused the Antigua Meteorological Office to issue a warning for the Federation.

“There is a fair degree of uncertainty with respect to its eventual path and strength. However, based on the last and best information, the storm is now expected to pass a little further south of its previous forecast track. Therefore, a tropical storm warning has been issued for St. Kitts and Nevis, as storm force winds are now likely Wednesday night.”

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

“Heavy showers and thunderstorms, which could result in minor to moderate flooding in lowly and flood prone areas” are also currently forecast to pass over the Federation, and the public is being advised to take proper precautions.

At this time, the Meteorological Office does not deem “battering down” as a necessity for all residents, but did state that “persons in relatively weak structures may do so to be on the safe side”.

The system is not expected to gain hurricane strength before it passes over St. Kitts and Nevis this evening, but any loose objects that could become projectiles in the high winds should be secured.

According to the communiqué, seas have begun to deteriorate and waves could reach up to 12 feet in height by this evening.
“Hence, mariners should seek safe anchorage for their crafts until the system passes.”

Tropical storm warnings have also been issued for Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.

All residents are asked to closely monitor the progress of the system, and further updates will be issued as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3769. IKE
2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting ClearwaterSteve:
Does anyone have the link to the UKMET model. Thank you.


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3767. TheCaneWhisperer
2:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
NHC should shift the track south a bit. More inline with the TCVN and GFDL
3766. atmoaggie
2:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting P451:




The models consistently dissipated the first wave (seen exiting NW of the CV islands) and wanted to develop the second one (now getting ready to exit).

It's being watched but don't expect any commentary on it as Erika and a potential northern gulf to carolina coastline system tries to develop.

Yay, Negative MoJO:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
3765. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting FLdewey:


Because he's typing in ALL CAPS! ;-)
OH,,I should have been paying more ATTENTION......my apologies to everyone....:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
3764. Seflhurricane
2:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
At 11:00 am the storm will be 40 mph with a 4 mb rise in pressure. Center reformed 40 miles to the s of last location
very likely and the trak will shift southward as well 5 day cone will probably include SE Florida
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
3763. JadeInAntigua
2:19 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting TriniGirl26:
thats for sure....lastnight when i saw Erika heading WSW, i thought my eyes were playing tricks on me...but when i saw her this morning there was a big difference from last night


Well she's really decided to be an independent woman... seems to be doing whatever she pleases. At this point I'm not really sure just what to expect as she nears us.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
3762. Bubu77
2:19 PM GMT on September 02, 2009

Je commence à craindre les inondations chez moi en Martinique parce qu'il y a une énorme convection sous ce systeme !!!

Veri Bad

Je craint un remake de Klaus ou 7 personne avaient été tué en Martinique
Member Since: May 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3761. homelesswanderer
2:19 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
I looked at the GFS LP. At first it starts out like Rita but hooks north on the extended, hits SF then out to sea. I don't know how accurate any of the models are but I looked up Dr.M's Rita blogs and GFS had Rita in the TX/LA coast 5 days early. That may have been a good guess but it was spot on. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3760. jpsb
2:19 PM GMT on September 02, 2009
Quoting Tropicaddict:


thanks!!!
Your are welcome, as long as it is blowing cool from the north we're fine on the GoM. Now a week after the south east winds return then start to worry. lol.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.