Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i agree my take is she will cross over saint martin travel south of pr and then curve north over haiti/cuba keys watch out!! JMO

She will never make it if she goes that way....Hispaniola will kill it......Just my opinion,of course we have seen weak systems make it and buzzsaws get shredded there.

Looks here as if Erika is tightening up.
Will be interesting to see what the NHC says at 8.
Link

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
512 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2009
Sun-Wed...broad trough redeveloping over the ctrl-eastern Continental U.S. Will
flatten out the western portion of the middle/upper ridge over Florida. At the
surface...light Erly flow seems likely to prevail through the beginning of
next week...with probability of precipitation generally close to climatology. Main caveat west/r/T
the xtd range forecast will be evolution of T.S. "Erika" currently near
the northern Leeward Islands. Current NHC forecast places system at 24.5n
71.0w as a 45kt T.S. Sun evening...and in a fairly hostile u/l
environment. This might argue for a less coherent T.C. Than what the
usually more reliable ecm suggests...and perhaps a closer approach
to the Bahama chain. In fact...while the 00z ecm still GOES with a
recurve scenario...it does so about 3 degrees farther west (75w as
opposed to 72w). Will be something to watch through next week. As
always...please refer to official NHC forecasts/discussions on T.S.
Erika for additional information.


Does not seem even the ECMWF has a good handle on this?

Quoting connie1976:
...so South florida is safe then? yippee! lol

South Florida IS NOT out of the woods yet.....

sorry, what is the name of that butterfly island again?

Quoting chucky7777:
great here come the Gulfcastdoomsdaycult........

I resent that remark! So if anybody talks about possibilities for a track to the GOM,then its not ok. But its ok to talk about everywhere else? with the way Erika is spastic right now it could go many places. I hope your not a met or futuremet with closed minded comments like that!!

Quoting scCane:
So I assume its looking a little more like a florida threat than a sc one?

Its anyones guess but SC has just as much of a chance of seeing this storm as Florida. It all depends on when it turns. Could hit both or neither.

Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


South Florida IS NOT out of the woods yet.....

Much more in the woods than yesterday afternoon IMO.

erika is without a doubt the most complicated system that I have ever seen.

It looked like it was on the verge of rapid intensification last night, and now, it may only be a TD. Latest vortex message:

000
URNT12 KNHC 020946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/09:34:40Z
B. 16 deg 24 min N
059 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1502 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 66 nm
F. 119 deg 33 kt
G. 045 deg 107 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 15 C / 1529 m
J. 18 C / 1528 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SE QUAD 08:12:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 024 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Quoting amd:
erika is without a doubt the most complicated system that I have ever seen.

It looked like it was on the verge of rapid intensification last night, and now, it may only be a TD. Latest vortex message:

000
URNT12 KNHC 020946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/09:34:40Z
B. 16 deg 24 min N
059 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1502 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 66 nm
F. 119 deg 33 kt
G. 045 deg 107 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 15 C / 1529 m
J. 18 C / 1528 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0206A ERIKA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 34 KT SE QUAD 08:12:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 024 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

I noticed convection is waning again.

Rapidly changing weather conditions here in Barbados. In the last 10 minutes, the rain has begun to fall at a steadily increasing rate, and is moderate to heavy at the moment. Winds are from the southwest now around 15 knots gusting to around 25, at least here on the southern part of the island. I hope my brothers and sisters throughout the Caribbean are doing.have done the common sense thing and prepared for this storm. Clouds are really low now, maybe 200 ft or less...

Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
HMMMMM
Have you guys notice th wind shift occurring near 15n57.5. It can also be seen in Martinique radar.
This could explain the southwestward motion of the old center. Mi opinion is that the a new center is consolidating between those two circulations

erika is confusing..... i can only see one center just north of guadeloupe. is this the new or old one? and where is the other centr?

Quoting IKE:


I noticed convection is waning again.

Still has and ill-defined LLC

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sorry, what is the name of that butterfly island again?

guadeloupe

Re Post 3310: Wasn't that 5:30 this morning EST? I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower pressure now toward the SW Quad. Link

This year has got to be one of the most un predictable seasons in a while. I've resolved myself to only looking 36-48 hour focast information, if that much. Still keeping a watchful eye and have done a lot of pre season prep here. But not going to panic untill early next week if it looke like it might come close to us here in Melbourne. I still remember Jeanne doing her loop in 2004. Thought she was passing us by then wham...

Quoting JupiterFL:


Its anyones guess but SC has just as much of a chance of seeing this storm as Florida. It all depends on when it turns. Could hit both or neither.

Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on?

Toss in all the levels and she looks good, still terribly unstacked.

Erika is a tricky little bugar isn't she!? any way be back in a while gotta get my wifey off to work.

local met still thinks its going to jog north today and pass north of puerto rico by atleast a hundred miles or more

Quoting leftovers:
stormsurge39 jezz rookie mellow out your not nice

Yea your right, I let a little frustation out there, it just seems like when the GOM is even mentioned here comes the pounce! With the way it looks right now even if it does end up in the GOM it will just be a wave!

Seems like Erika could die. No, I am not a RIP Force Member, but it seems if it doesn't get its LLC straight it will fall into oblivion and could be a major event of rains for the islands, or just die completely. And yes, I am still eating crow for saying Erika would never get close or pass over PR.

WINDWARD ISLANDS

Quoting presslord:


Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on?

This is true. I wait, watch, and always prepare early. Anything can happen, and if it does, well as they say here "it aint our first rodeo, and we got generators now!"

Quoting presslord:


Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on?

Press,
Its mostly a Miami thing. Don't get it.

the butterfly island is Guadeloupe

Decreasing stats again...

..DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A LITTLE WEAKER...
8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 59.5°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

Quoting IKE:


I noticed convection is waning again.

yep, looks like DMAX is ending. Some more thoughts: Erika looks like more of a supercell in the midwest than an organized system. And, another thing to note about the latest vortex, new center is much further south and west (near 16.5 N 59.0 W). Looks like the islands now definitely will be affected by something, and possibly PR and Hispanola.

Also, this southern relocation of the center brings it closer to the center of the anticyclone. So, assuming that Erika survives the next few hours as an organized system, it MAY come back quickly. Or, it may end up being a tropical wave soon.

Link

Morning All,

I am a longtime lurker here, located in Providenciales, Turks & Caicos Islands. HEre is a link to our weather station at work.

http://pwsweather.com/obs/regent.html

Quoting JupiterFL:


Its anyones guess but SC has just as much of a chance of seeing this storm as Florida. It all depends on when it turns. Could hit both or neither.

I'll be watching

Quoting IKE:
Decreasing stats again...

..DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A LITTLE WEAKER...
8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 59.5°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

16.5??

It was @ 16.3 yesterday afternoon

Quoting IKE:
Decreasing stats again...

..DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A LITTLE WEAKER...
8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2
Location: 16.5°N 59.5°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

They need to check pressure south of there.

<

Quoting JupiterFL:


Press,
Its mostly a Miami thing. Don't get it.

You can thank Channel "7" for that one

Quoting stormsurge39:
I resent that remark! So if anybody talks about possibilities for a track to the GOM,then its not ok. But its ok to talk about everywhere else? with the way Erika is spastic right now it could go many places. I hope your not a met or futuremet with closed minded comments like that!!

I should have added the following in my post. i can hear some of the other misguided bloggers now here comes The gulfcastdoomsdaycult,my apologies if i offended.It was not my intention to insult the poster i quoted...

Gonna log off. Honestly tired of Erika for now, let her go where hse wants and do what she wants =P

presslord,

I'm not sure if that is true....a lot of people keep asking if it's going into the gom....

local mets are all so saying it might intesify this afternoon

Quoting connie1976:
...so South florida is safe then? yippee

Never have understood why people make these kind of statements out of the blue. Just watch and learn and listen.

Quoting LemieT:
Rapidly changing weather conditions here in Barbados. In the last 10 minutes, the rain has begun to fall at a steadily increasing rate, and is moderate to heavy at the moment. Winds are from the southwest now around 15 knots gusting to around 25, at least here on the southern part of the island. I hope my brothers and sisters throughout the Caribbean are doing.have done the common sense thing and prepared for this
storm. Clouds are really low now, maybe 200 ft or less...

Yes I agree my brother, its going to get worse as the day goes on, the convection is definately expanding or the system is moving more in our direction,a bad day for the start of school

Based on the latest HH vortex fix... it has moved W at a pretty good clip with a little S component to its motion... but still W.

Center Fix Coordinates: 16°24'N 59°27'W (16.4N 59.45W)

~143 miles E of Guadeloupe.

Quoting connie1976:
presslord,

I'm not sure if that is true....a lot of people keep asking if it's going into the gom....

yea...most broad strokes comments aren't entirely true...but there is some truth to it...

The anticyclone is back with Erika, I don't expect it to degenerate to a wave until the anticyclone moves away.

She is heading WSW currently....i agree with her making landfall at Guadeloupe

Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
<

You can thank Channel "7" for that one

West Palm news last night @ 11 said "New Model Runs YOU May Need To Be Concerned About" gimme a break lol, it's over a week away.

I made that statement because I am wishing the stupid thing away and I am hoping that lots of people will tell me it's going away! lol