Jimena nears Category 5 status; 94L getting sheared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:02 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

Share this Blog
5
+

The most powerful hurricane anywhere on the planet so far this year is Hurricane Jimena, according to data from this afternoon's hurricane hunter mission. Jimena's 155 mph winds beat out the South Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Hamish (150 mph winds) as the most powerful tropical cyclones so far this year. The Hurricane Hunters have completed their mission into Jimena, so we will have to rely on satellite estimates of Jimena's strength until Tuesday afternoon's hurricane hunter flight to see if the storm intensifies to the 160 mph threshold needed for it to become a Category 5 hurricane.

Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning along the Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decree in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. The computer models have come into better agreement with their latest 12Z runs, giving confidence that a landfall north of Cabo San Lucas will occur, and that town is now outside of the NHC cone of uncertainty. Cabo San Lucas has a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, according to NHC's wind probability product. Serious flooding due to heavy rains will occur across all of the southern Baja Tuesday and Wednesday. Jimena is of similar intensity and is following a similar track to Hurricane Juliette of 2001, which brought 17.7" of rain to Cabo San Lucas. Juliette killed 7 people and caused $20 million in damage to Mexico, mostly due to flash flooding and mudslides from the heavy rains.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Jimena at 4:35 pm EDT on Monday, 8/31/09.

Invest 94L getting sheared
Tropical wave (94L) about 450 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. However, recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University show that wind shear has increased throughout the day over 94L, and is now near 20 knots, which is marginal for development. Satellite shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin show about 10 - 20 knots of shear, and it is apparent from satellite imagery that shear is causing some disruption to the west side of 94L. Visible satellite imagery show that 94L does not have a surface circulation center, and the storm has not significantly increased in organization this afternoon.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model currently shows a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and this is not correct, so this model's forecast of low shear over 94L for the next five days cannot be trusted. The latest set of 12Z model runs are more restrained in developing 94L, and are depicting higher levels of shear will be affecting 94L over the next three days. SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, but the high shear may delay 94L from developing into a tropical depression for several days. The HWRF makes 94L into a strong tropical storm 5 days from now, but the GFDL and GFS models do not develop 94L at all. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that development of 94L will not occur until five or so days from now, in a region between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda. NHC continues to give 94L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. This probability may need to get scaled back to moderate (30 - 50% chance) if the high shear continues into tomorrow.

My next post will be Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2587 - 2537

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

2587. CaneHunter031472
5:27 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll believe this when i see it.
Invest 94L in 90 hours
944.58hPa, Max winds 131.173kts



That is too far fethced. Models have not been to accurate in intensity this year I would take them all and get a mean intensity value and go with that and give it a 30% change of it happening
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
2586. Hhunter
3:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
94L is not fighting shear as much as dry air folks..when it moistens the environment enough it will take off..
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
2585. watchdog40
3:28 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
where did everyone go?
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
2584. tramp96
2:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting bingcrosby:
If the 06z HWRF is to be believed, we will have a Cat 5 headed this way by Saturday.....


I'm assuming the 1024 mb over the ne states is a ridge
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1371
2582. JadeInAntigua
2:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hope that your media has at least alerted folks to the potential right on your doorstep....Won't have too much time to make preparations if it starts heading your way; TD or not, a strong tropical wave with copious amounts of rain and gusts is no picnic.


Yeah I agree. Unfortunately, sometimes people don't take these systems as seriously until it's at least gotten a name. Even then... Ana crossed us and was barely noticeable so I think some may have let their guards down considering this is not yet a depression.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
2581. PensacolaDoug
2:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Have we heard from Oz yet this AM?



Oz has the live webcam up @ Xtremehurricanes.com
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
2580. tropicfreak
2:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting stormno:
mobile girl this system will encounter anothe rstrong 700mb trough and will not be a problem for anyone except the fish...so i will tell you now this will never make the gulf of mexico...its surrounded by a stong force shield...gulf is clear from this system..Stormno


Here we go. stormno come on, the NHC said intrests in the leeward islands, virgin Islands, the US and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. If they knew it would turn out to sea, then they wouldn't say US to begin with and same with the virgin islands. The NHC will decide where it will go once it develops. The models are all over the place and the majority has it hitting the US. I know it will definitely not go into the GOM but it could be an east coast storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
2579. mobilegirl81
2:15 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting stormno:
it looks like in the last 3 frames i looked at 94L is once again in a weakening stage...shear is starting to work its magice on 94L ...its going to be a rough road to hold to even keep it together...i see no problems with this system...Stormno

Nobody saw problems with tropical storm Katrina either did they?
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
2578. mikatnight
2:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2577. justalurker
2:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
new blog
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
2576. SavannahStorm
2:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
New blog
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
2574. JadeInAntigua
2:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting tbrett:

They finally mentioned it this morning on the radio, but said it was nothing to worry about. We would only get 20mph winds.


Glad to hear Montserrat is on top of things. Whether something tracks our way and intensifies or not, we should all at least be aware of the presence of something in case we do find ourselves making last minute preparations.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
2573. BurnedAfterPosting
2:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
George;

Jimena is a small system, you are getting the outer parts of the storm, it will get worse

Keep us all posted on what is going on there
2572. SavannahStorm
2:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
GOES-12 WV Loop

I have to give 94L some credit- it's got a helluva exhaust system. Notice the high cirrus racing away from the convection in all directions. In fact- a little too good on the west side- it's being sheared by the anticyclone itself.

However, the ULL to the NNW that is enhancing that flow is lifting away. Shear will slowly diminish on that side.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
2571. mikatnight
2:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting IKE:


No...I was talking about the COC being completely exposed to where we can all see where the center is at.

Not sure on recon.


They were supposed to go out at 2pm according to a post from yesterday. Don't know if that's changed...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2570. Racefan24
2:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting nishinigami:


His live webcam is running



Does anyone have a link to OZ webcam?
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
2569. GeorgefromLosCabos
2:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
This is very odd, despite that Jimena is really near from Cabo San Lucas all the things are very normal, it just rained a little bit, winds are very calm, What happens? I've been in other hurricanes also in Tropical Storms that are farther than Jimena and the winds are stronger and the rain havyer... The local is getting tired to wait and they think that all is gone U_U. Maybe Jimena is not that bigger as it was days ago... What do u think.

Right now, light rain.
Member Since: June 23, 2005 Posts: 29 Comments: 232
2568. bingcrosby
2:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
If the 06z HWRF is to be believed, we will have a Cat 5 headed this way by Saturday.....
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
2566. rxse7en
2:09 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting SavannahStorm:


94L had a beautiful signature on TPW imagery, but now it's looking a little ragged.

Edit: Notice the huge chunk of moisture it casts off toward the SW at the end of the loop...
Love that image. That trough looks to be settling in much closer to the CONUS.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
2565. IKE
2:08 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
IKE - Are the HH going out early since you said an hour?


No...I was talking about the COC being completely exposed to where we can all see where the center is at.

Not sure on recon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2563. weathermanwannabe
2:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


Our met office has no warnings or watches up yet... hoping most people are aware of what's next to us.


Hope that your media has at least alerted folks to the potential right on your doorstep....Won't have too much time to make preparations if it starts heading your way; TD or not, a strong tropical wave with copious amounts of rain and gusts is no picnic.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
2562. mikatnight
2:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll believe this when i see it.
Invest 94L in 90 hours
944.58hPa, Max winds 131.173kts



HWRF just won't give it up...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2561. tbrett
2:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


Our met office has no warnings or watches up yet... hoping most people are aware of what's next to us.

They finally mentioned it this morning on the radio, but said it was nothing to worry about. We would only get 20mph winds.
Member Since: July 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
2560. IKE
2:07 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
LOL if a CAT 5 hurricane got just a bit asymmetrical be sure that IKE will tell you about it LMAO



Had to throw in a jab, didn't ya?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2559. sebastianflorida
2:06 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
One of the first rules of following tropical cyclone formation is... focus on the surface flow, not the pretty blobs. Tropical cyclones are surface based systems. You can have the most intense-looking, vigorously spinning blob you've ever seen, but if there is no surface organization there is no tropical cyclone... just an impressive MCS. 94L's organization continues to be poor.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
2558. ssmate
2:06 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting MahFL:
Lol, the shear always "relaxes tomorrow" never today......


lol. Funny how that works.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
2557. justalurker
2:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting P451:


Can't help ya there I'm not an expert on the models.

I will say the GFS went from developing every cloud it saw into a TS earlier this year to not developing a number of systems.

The CMC is always very aggressive with intensity.

That's about all I know.


alright maybe someone else would like to chime in..
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
2556. mikatnight
2:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting P451:


Can't help ya there I'm not an expert on the models.

I will say the GFS went from developing every cloud it saw into a TS earlier this year to not developing a number of systems.

The CMC is always very aggressive with intensity.

That's about all I know.


I believe Dr. M noted on an earlier blog the cmc has been the most accurite in terms of direction so far this year...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2555. AussieStorm
2:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting P451:
00CMC

>

I'll believe this when i see it.
Invest 94L in 90 hours
944.58hPa, Max winds 131.173kts

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
2554. Seastep
2:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
IKE - Is recon going out early since you said an hour?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
2553. IKE
2:05 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting Elena85Vet:


You can see it on RGB Loop.16.6N and 57.2W


I see it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2552. Seastep
2:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting Parkay:
Does 94L finally have a surface circulation? Or is that some other feature in the top left corner?



That's the old llc. Developing a new one just on the W edge of the convection.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
2551. justalurker
2:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Back to the weather but yeah; I have my work computer on my desk and a few laptops hooked up with the satt loops and blog off to the side........

So, how about the short term steering for 94L? (this one is not going to get sheared away as suggested by some folks on here)....Gotta be a bit nervous in the Leewards I would think.


agree back to the tropics, just trying to break the stress a little..no prob..i am not an expert here, but lets hope for the best for everyone here who could be effected by 94L.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
2548. Parkay
2:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Does 94L finally have a surface circulation? Or is that some other feature in the top left corner?

Member Since: April 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
2546. stoormfury
2:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
the partiall exposed COC of 94L is still open on the sw and is moving west
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
2545. JadeInAntigua
2:01 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Back to the weather but yeah; I have my work computer on my desk and a few laptops hooked up with the satt loops and blog off to the side........

So, how about the short term steering for 94L? (this one is not going to get sheared away as suggested by some folks on here)....Gotta be a bit nervous in the Leewards I would think.


Our met office has no warnings or watches up yet... hoping most people are aware of what's next to us.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
2544. SavannahStorm
2:00 PM GMT on September 01, 2009


94L had a beautiful signature on TPW imagery, but now it's looking a little ragged.

Edit: Notice the huge chunk of moisture it casts off toward the SW at the end of the loop...
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
2543. BurnedAfterPosting
2:00 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
LOL if a CAT 5 hurricane got just a bit asymmetrical be sure that IKE will tell you about it LMAO

2541. weathermanwannabe
1:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting justalurker:


multitasking..key to success!!


Back to the weather but yeah; I have my work computer on my desk and a few laptops hooked up with the satt loops and blog off to the side........

So, how about the short term steering for 94L? (this one is not going to get sheared away as suggested by some folks on here)....Gotta be a bit nervous in the Leewards I would think.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
2540. Elena85Vet
1:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting IKE:
I can just about the see the exposed coc of 94L. Give it an hour and we should be able to give exacts coordinates on it.


You can see it on RGB Loop.16.6N and 57.2W
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
2539. mobilegirl81
1:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Location, movement, and strength are going to get it hung up in the next ridge. The GOM will be where it could be a true major problem.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
2538. fmbill
1:56 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Lol; yeah, I'm the "offical" weatherman for the office, and no, I don't get paid extra for it..........I should though cause all the e-mail I get and reply to (from different areas of the State) during H-season is another full-time job!


I always enjoy the calls from management wanting to play golf. "Is it going to rain this afternoon?"

"Hmmm...let me see, it's summer, it's Florida, and you want to play this afternoon..." LOL!!!
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 409
2537. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2009
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah, you can really see it on RGB. Looks closed now.


Sorry for my bad English. I edited my post.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

Viewing: 2587 - 2537

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
46 °F
Overcast