Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:36 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

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Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.

The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.

The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.

Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.

My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormobserver:
I don't remember a time when all the models were pointing Bill to Florida. Ever.


At the time when Bill was still just a wave coming off Africa, the long term models did show Bill going toward Florida.
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Quoting bingcrosby:
Hurricane Trends After August 30th. Since we are halfway through the hurricane season, I thought this would be a good time to reflect with an article I found. We've had only 4 named storms this year with 1 making landfall with very minimal impact. However, if history proves correct, we are poised to see a dramatic increase in activity very shortly. The only 3 years since 2000 that had 4 named storms prior to September ended up producing on average 8-9 named storms for the second half of the season. Buckle up. It's about to be a bumpy ride.
Link


Ana went thru the Leewards and Puerto Rico, besides Claudette in the CONUS.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


here....

Aha! A comrade! (or comradette?) lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
the United States Navy Forecast Model [NOGAPS] has it nailed with 94l. Dead On.

Soon the WU Servers are going to be heating up.



Huh? What are they sayong?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
An obvious spin and it continues its WNW movement.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
On the "impacts the whole state" discussion, it does indirectly. In Florida you pay a surcharge on your insurance policy, homeowners and vehicle for past hurricanes. Also in South Florida you pay a surcharge on your electric and phone bills for past hurricanes.

Not to mention the FP&L charges you paid even though you didn't have electricity for weeks. Never could figure that out..
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok :) hahaha and im sorry shouldnt have assumed :D


What's ironic to me about RitaEvac's original statement about the whole state feeling a storm.......I'm in central Tx. and last year when I saw Hurr. Ike's massive size, I was sure that Ike would break the miserable drought and bring some much needed rain. We prepared for wind and big storm predictions.......Guess what?

Only a couple hours drive from the coast and we didn't even get a breeze much less a drop of rain. Fortunate for us, sadly tragic for those nearer the Gulf.

So yes, to say an entire state experience's a storm is just plain silly.(unless maybe you are in tiny Rhode Island or Delaware. LOL)
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah there needs to be a few more women hahaha ;)


here....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What's the furthest north on the Mexican Pacific coast a hurricane has made landfall I wonder.


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Quoting btwntx08:

u are very wrong
I think he is talking about the flare up to the north of Puerto rico.
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the United States Navy Forecast Model [NOGAPS] has it nailed with 94l. Dead On.

Soon the WU Servers are going to be heating up.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah there needs to be a few more women hahaha ;)


Storms or bloggers? lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
On the "impacts the whole state" discussion, it does indirectly. In Florida you pay a surcharge on your insurance policy, homeowners and vehicle for past hurricanes. Also in South Florida you pay a surcharge on your electric and phone bills for past hurricanes.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting jeffs713:

What about the people who are filling in said hole, or rebuilding the house? They are increasing their wealth. Yes, things are being destroyed that were there before. But newer, more expensive things are being put into place. Many areas rebuild "bigger and better" after a wave of destruction. Many areas hit by Katrina are rebuilding to be more ecologically friendly, and more efficient. Same thing for areas hit by Ike. Not to mention, the people who are gaining the funds from rebuilding (construction, mostly) are injecting a good amount of their earnings back into the local economy.


The disconnect comes about because people assume the exact same things are being rebuilt. The things being built can be of higher quality, modern technology, or some other attribute that increases the value compared to the previous items.

The point that also gets lost is that *some* entity has to pay for the rebuilding. Either Government, Insurance, or the people out of their own pockets. That money that could be spent purchasing other products, investing in technology, or paying for some childs college education, is instead being spent rebuilding something that previously had existed. So while it can look like there is an economic boom, there is still a price to pay that wouldn't have existed had the disaster not happened in the first place.
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94L isn't subtropical for the person that was asking. Fully tropical because it came off Africa.

Regarding 94L's current status it does look healthy, sheared somewhat, but healthy. If the Recon finds a closed Circulation we'll have either TD6 or Tropical Storm Erika. Right now some reason 2009 is carriying the 2008 curse of never developing a SFC circulation if you get what I mean.
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Lost another client down on mississippi coast due to they couldnt afford the inflated homeowners insurance and they were forced to move. All the utilites have raised thier rates because their revenue is down due to loss of population in this area. Our own house payment has increased $300 a month just for the homeowners insurance. Sounds wonderful for the economy doesnt it? I cant wait for the next big one so we can get back on our feet!
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Quoting SykKid:
Chances of development in the next 24-48 hours are slim to none.


you must be blind, or an idiot.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

No problem. Seems most are men on this blog ;)


yeah there needs to be a few more women hahaha ;)
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
soon the high will be centered over the southeast US and in a dominant position
and with no short wave forecast track predicition should be easy once 94l develops
a better signature for the dynamical models.






Current models suggesting WNW movement for several more days until it is relatively north of Puerto Rico, then it should make a gradual turn to the west with northward wobbles due to the High, right now SFLA should prepare for a possible strike, but it is still relatively too far. I remember when all the models were pointing Bill to us, I brought down my satellite and then they started making Bill a fish so i bite my tongue, lol.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
No suit can protect a person against debre moving that fast, hes just asking to get hurt or worse by chasing storms for just video footage, Besides the footage hes not helping the scientific community. Hes risking other people lives when he gets in trouble and needs rescued. Personnly he about as sharp as a beach ball.


Guess that puts him right up there with our televised meteorologist who tend to go stand out in the hurricane's too, eh? lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
re: the broken window fallacy -

I am fully aware of that school of thought, but keep in mind I am speaking of only the *local and regional* economy. Much of the money for rebuilding comes from outside that economy in the form of insurance.

Also, note the following, from wikipedia (which in this sense, applies very well):
"In the broader scope, offsetting factors can reduce the cost of destruction. For example, new technologies developed during a war and forced modernization during postwar reconstruction can increase individual and national productivity, and can even lead to a net increase in overall productivity." Link to Wikipedia

If you stretch out into an even longer time frame, you run into the concept that the structures destroeyd by a storm would have been destroyed anyway, the storm just accelerated the process, and hastened the economic production to replace the structures with something more modern.
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852. IKE 7:54 PM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting Txwxchaser:
761. IKE 7:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2009
ECMWF is the most reliable model. If it shows 94L doing the same on the next couple of runs, I would bet my paycheck that is what will happen.

I'm not ready to say it is now, but if it shows it on a couple of more runs....


IKE...could you link for me please...thx



Link

thx IKE..question. This shows a recurve around 70-75 lat. Wouldn't it take a strong trough to push it N. so soon/suddenly. What do I know?

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Very interesting.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Trends After August 30th. Since we are halfway through the hurricane season, I thought this would be a good time to reflect with an article I found. We've had only 4 named storms this year with 1 making landfall with very minimal impact. However, if history proves correct, we are poised to see a dramatic increase in activity very shortly. The only 3 years since 2000 that had 4 named storms prior to September ended up producing on average 8-9 named storms for the second half of the season. Buckle up. It's about to be a bumpy ride.
Link
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Quoting TampaTom:


When you're a jet, you're a jet all the way...


You can always count on JupiterFL to come up with the best ZINGS! You ever heard. I'd put money on it that he wrote for Seinfeld. Nobody can think that fast.
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Good outflow and a well defined circulation calls for a Tropical Depression, maybe even a Tropical Storm.

And that is what 94L has.
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No suit can protect a person against debre moving that fast, hes just asking to get hurt or worse by chasing storms for just video footage, Besides the footage hes not helping the scientific community. Hes risking other people lives when he gets in trouble and needs rescued. Personnly he about as sharp as a beach ball.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Cabo may dodge one helluva bullet.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Canes - it looks like the same image?


Nevermind - you changed it. Thanks.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Canes - it looks like the same image?
yes i changed it.
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soon the high will be centered over the southeast US and in a dominant position
and with no short wave forecast track predicition should be easy once 94l develops
a better signature for the dynamical models.






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Quoting cyclonekid:
Interesting...it looks like a sub-tropical storm. Any chances?
very little chances >30% imo.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok :) hahaha and im sorry shouldnt have assumed :D

No problem. Seems most are men on this blog ;)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting canesrule1:
Ramsdis floater over the ULL flare-up north of Puerto Rico:



94L at 19:15 UTC (3:15PM EST):


Canes - it looks like the same image?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Ramsdis floater over the ULL flare-up north of Puerto Rico:



94L at 19:15 UTC (3:15PM EST):

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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

Yes, I was saying they don't ... It was RitaEvac that said they do.
I'm a "she" though. ;)


ok :) hahaha and im sorry shouldnt have assumed :D
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I'd like to see that suit. A cat 5 can drive a 2x4 through the trunk of a decent-sized tree.
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862. jipmg
Quoting chevycanes:

the models don't even go that far out.

you're just extrapolating from their last position and assume it's gonna continue moving that same way when there's a good chance that it doesn't.



actually long term model of GFS takes a weak low pressure area towards SFLA
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Quoting canesrule1:
Ramsdis floater over the ULL flare-up north of Puerto Rico:



94L at 19:15 UTC (3:15PM EST):

Interesting...it looks like a sub-tropical storm. Any chances?
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Quoting chevycanes:

that's not what he said.

his exact words."By the way.....dont you know by now that if a storm hits Florida the whole friggin state feels it!"

Yes, he did but you replied to my post which argued against him, is why the confusion. No big deal..
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I agree your SFLA situation is plausible but its a little too far out to be that specific.
i know, sorry if i was a bit mean, not a good day, lol, but I like to tell people in advance of the situation that way they don't go mad 12 hours before a hurricane comes and I say: "I told you so". LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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