Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:36 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

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Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.

The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.

The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.

Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.

My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1055. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Looks like two competing low-level centers to me. The small one underneath the cluster to the west of the main blob.
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Quoting JLPR:


aww well that sucks lol

we will have to keep speculating


Look for the buoys while I go make myself something to eat :D

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
LordHuracano01

Thanks for the history lesson-and happy birthday

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Quoting BayouBorn1965:


Biloxi resident here! Do you think that another storm will help us get back on our feet? Our home insurance is more than our principal and interest. Our utilities have gone up. And now the Mississippi Development Authority says that they made a mistake in giving us a grant and they want their money back. I said I would never move . . . . but never say never!


hi bayouborn,
the last two sentences were sarcastic, i lost the post i was responding to. he/she were claiming how good for the economy a big hit was. i agree with you, i have never wanted to move from this area, but now can see how it might happen.
im glad for our quiet season to this point, hope yalls situation does not degrade any further!
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That is the best live webcam shot I have...
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Remem
Quoting btwntx08:

outlier throw that away for now

CMC is showing it also. Don't forget EURO was the only model that nailed Bill to begin with. It showed a recurve before all other global models. It was the only outlier for Mr. Bill from the get go.
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Hurricane WILMA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS
AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED JUST
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTH OF EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH AND A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EYEWALL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE
RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE
RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. A WIND GUST TO 95 MPH WAS REPORTED AT EVERGLADES CITY AND A
GUST TO 75 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NAPLES FLORIDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WESTERN CUBA MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH



WILMA WAS A CAT 3 NOT A 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If we in Miami get any tropical activity, I will be outside reporting and posting it on this blog (sustained wind, gust, rain rate, temperatures, etc...), I will also be video tapping it and i will be posting it on the blog as well.
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using a visible satellite pic to show convection serves no purpose.

looking at IR imagery, the convection is getting sheared off to the east right at 53W. convection is not advancing past that there.

it has the classic appearance of a sheared system.
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1044. A4Guy
Quoting markymark1973:
I'm afraid 2009 will be remembered as YEAR OF THE SHEAR. zzzzz next... Maybe we can get a TS out of one of these stalled fronts.


Hasn't anyone noticed that this guy is making these posts just to get a reaction?

**POOF** #62
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
It's getting sheared...
It's developing....
The moisture is wrapping around the center...
It's going poof...

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Time for a drink and hunt for a crystal ball.


lol

Time for FOOD! and some monday night football in a bit :D

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
that is bad for us in Puerto Rico..
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1040. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


Tomorrow.


aww well that sucks lol

we will have to keep speculating
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1039. IKE
Quoting rwdobson:
People, the storm is obviously feeling the effects of shear, or it would be a TD/TS already. And just look at it on satellite images, the shear is obvious.

I'm not saying that this means "stick a fork in it, its done" or anything absurd like that. But anyone who says shear is light and not affecting the storm, well, that's just wishcasting.


I agree.

I always loop the visible and speed it up. Shear is hammering it right now.
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1038. fire635
Quoting markymark1973:
And so the shear starts to rip 94L apart. Anticyclone sure worked out. EURO nailed another one. The latest run shows it a fish as well.


I dont know what you're seeing, but Im not seeing a system ripped apart
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
1037. amd
Jimena's actual pressure is slightly higher than the estimated surface pressure at flight level, but make no mistake, Jimena is absolutely strengthening. Pressure has fallen 5 mb in under two hours. New Vortex message here:

000
URPN12 KNHC 312004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2504 m
D. 125 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 285 deg 118 kt
G. 199 deg 5 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 20 C / 3024 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 132 KTS NE QUAD 19:20:20 Z
;

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Quoting A4Guy:


Wilma made landfall in southWEST FL as a Cat 3 - however, it was widely reported that the east cost - especially Miami-Dade adn Broward counties only recevied Cat 1 winds. The damage seen in those counties - especially Broward - was not commensurate with a Cat 1 storm. Katrina was a Cat 1 storm when it moved through here, and didn't do a third of what Wilma did (though Katrina was just forming...vs. Wilma having a ton of angular momentum built up from being such a powerful storm earlier in its life).


so can anyone confirm what the highest winds in wilma were in northern broward? im 13 miles from the beach in pompano beach
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i live in broward out west. at at 7 am winds were abound 115-120. lost my patio and tv
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Quoting btwntx08:

outlier throw that away for now
agreed.
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1033. IKE
Quoting Relix:


So Ike... RIP for the 3rd time since Saturday? =P. It's not gonna get sheared to death at this point.


3rd time? I said next the other morning. That's only once.

And yes, it's getting sheared at a good clip right now.
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
30TH Aniversary of a big tragedy

Today we remember the landing of one the most dangerous huracane that hit the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1979; was the huracane DAVID.

it took a lot of lives, destroyed hundred of homes and changed the life many Dominican

Em midst of this chaos I was born

YES TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY.





Happy birthday, that cane brought epic surf to the south coast of PR as told by my parents and uncles
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
I'm afraid 2009 will be remembered as YEAR OF THE SHEAR. zzzzz next... Maybe we can get a TS out of one of these stalled fronts.
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1028. Patrap
18 Z Dynamic Model Suite

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
People, the storm is obviously feeling the effects of shear, or it would be a TD/TS already. And just look at it on satellite images, the shear is obvious.

I'm not saying that this means "stick a fork in it, its done" or anything absurd like that. But anyone who says shear is light and not affecting the storm, well, that's just wishcasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hi everybody my first post on here! I was in the path of Rita and evacuated up I-45... and blah blah blah!! nobody gives a damn. Why do people do that stuff?


I don't think thats true. I have family in Groves, TX that had to evacuate from Rita and couldn't go home for almost 2 weeks.
I was actually in Groves this weekend and got to see some more of the devastation she caused. Kinda like us here in NOLA, still no where near completly re-couped from it.

I find that for the most part people on this site are kind. You have a few that are mean, but you can tell by there blogs most of them are just immature and childish!!!

I respect the opinions of 95% who post here, and look forward on a daily basis of reading and learing from them!!!!!!!!!
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1024. Relix
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
14.6 or 15.6...what is the rigth position?


Since QuickSAT has a bias, and altest repot was 14.7... I would say about 15.1 =P
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1023. A4Guy
Quoting kuppenskup:
Wilma was a cat 3 not a 1.


Wilma made landfall in southWEST FL as a Cat 3 - however, it was widely reported that the east cost - especially Miami-Dade adn Broward counties only recevied Cat 1 winds. The damage seen in those counties - especially Broward - was not commensurate with a Cat 1 storm. Katrina was a Cat 1 storm when it moved through here, and didn't do a third of what Wilma did (though Katrina was just forming...vs. Wilma having a ton of angular momentum built up from being such a powerful storm earlier in its life).
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Quoting canesrule1:
94L wrapping the area of showers and thunderstorms on the western quadrant around its COC.


correct coming together with the main circulation which was always south & west of the main area of convection.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I posted this quikscat earlier but if you look it caught the tailend of circulation around 14/53.5

Looks elongated on a NE/SW axis.
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14.6 or 15.6...what is the rigth position?
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It's getting sheared...
It's developing....
The moisture is wrapping around the center...
It's going poof...

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Time for a drink and hunt for a crystal ball.
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never mind...south fla does'nt need a hurricane right now
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Quoting JLPR:
Also who cares what anyone here says =P
We will soon know exactly how is 94L since there is a HH plane heading to it right?


Tomorrow.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
1016. Relix
Quoting IKE:


He should have a new blog soon...within an hour or 2.

Looking at the 1800UTC CIMSS shear map and the visible on 94L...it's getting sheared pretty good.


So Ike... RIP for the 3rd time since Saturday? =P. It's not gonna get sheared to death at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30TH Aniversary of a big tragedy

Today we remember the landing of one the most dangerous huracane that hit the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1979; was the huracane DAVID.

it took a lot of lives, destroyed hundred of homes and changed the life many Dominican

Em midst of this chaos I was born

YES TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:

I posted this quikscat earlier but if you look it caught the tailend of circulation around 14/53.5
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Quoting rwdobson:


He was talking about CABO, i.e. Hurricane Jimena. You are such a Flacaster you even have Jimena going to South Forida...
lol, i misread it!
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Quoting kuppenskup:
Wilma was a cat 3 not a 1.


Not according to the NHC it was a Cat 1 when it hit Fla
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Quoting btwntx08:

read post 964

i did.

read my post #995 for a response to that.
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1007. IKE
Quoting 900MB:


Confused. Dr. Jeff says: "The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days"


He should have a new blog soon...within an hour or 2.

Looking at the 1800UTC CIMSS shear map and the visible on 94L...it's getting sheared pretty good.
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Quoting A4Guy:


I am up in Broward and it was a disaster here after Wilma as well. No way we only had Cat 1 winds - don't care what they say! If it truly was Cat 1 winds...then if we ever get a Cat 3 storm, this place will be leveled.


there was A LOT of tornadic activity with wima as well i think. there must have been because there is no way 4 huge trees in my house were knocked down so quickly
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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