Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:36 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

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Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.

The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.

The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.

Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.

My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting twhcracker:


when you say "florida" please be aware there is east florida peninsula, west fla peninsula, and the panhandle GOM, and of the panhandle GOM where I am, there is the big bend tallahassee area, the central panhandle and the Pensacola area. So do you mean the whole state or the east coast or the GOM or what??


Doesn't matter what part of Florida, just need to know if you live in FLorida your in the crossfire. If you say TX that means from Mexico border to Louisiana border. By the way.....dont you know by now that if a storm hits Florida the whole friggin state feels it!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
if you are not a believer that 94l will continue west into the southeast watch this loop and you
may be convinced.

there will be no "short wave" trough this time like the ECMF is suggesting.

that is unless it is created out of thin air by DHS.

watch this loop and decide for yourself.

RAMDIS WV LOOP Link
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Quoting RitaEvac:
There's a reason why StormW,Drakeon, weather456 are silent right now.....Because aint nothing going on right now! down the road, sure.
StormW got banned last night
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Quoting WxLogic:
If CMC verifies... then those upgrades done to it this year... sure have helped get its reputation almost to par with ECMWF.


Indeed.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Is there a good chance that we could have TD 6 at 5pm?

There is an equally good chance we won't. hahaha. I'm sorry, that's not funny.
I think everyone believes it will become a depression and a then a tropical storm within 48 hours, yes.
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Quoting fmbill:
It looks like 94L is trying to incorporate the entire area of moisture as its system. It looks like it will soon include all the thunderstorm activity from 49 to 59.



Good observation ... agree.
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Quoting eddye:
people listen this is the one florida needs to lookout for


when you say "florida" please be aware there is east florida peninsula, west fla peninsula, and the panhandle GOM, and of the panhandle GOM where I am, there is the big bend tallahassee area, the central panhandle and the Pensacola area. So do you mean the whole state or the east coast or the GOM or what??
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One run of the models is showing out-to-sea. There is still VERY MUCH UNCERTAINTY in both intensity and track forecasts.
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Quoting futuremet:


No, we need to see consistency. The ECMWF had it in the GOM the previous run. If it shows it going out to sea for two more runs, then we may have a new pattern.
That drives me nuts! Good news if it stays that way, why keep posting model runs that from what i understand, have little significance until a system developes! I got to take a break!!!!!!!
Thanks futuremet.....
Maybe if I pray enough God will send it away out into the sea, so that it bothers no one....I for one, do not want a hurricane!! I like to watch them, but only when they are not a threat...
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Thanks keep informing
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Quoting CaribbeanWave:
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...PEAKING AT 7 TO
8 FEET BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.


Now this I like. I was disgusted by how they blew the call on Bill's supposed "south" winds, though.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
Is there a good chance that we could have TD 6 at 5pm?
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Was it Lili you are thinking of? It was supposed to make landfall as a 4, then dropped to a 2, then a 1 at landfall. We still had a lot of damage, but thank God it dropped in intensity. It came up Vermillion Bay if I remember right. We were without power at our home in Lafayette for 5 days.


I remember that one too. My mom (in Kaplan) was without power for days. Left my home in NOLA and took her a generator so she could have power. Lilli caused alot of flooding if I recall correctly too.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:

I must commend you futuremet for always presenting things in a concise and informative manner. Your level is knowledge is excellent ,thanks for the explanation.


Thanks ;)
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It is awfully weird how some people (only some) on this blog roll. First of all, if a system looks bad, they consistently say no...no....it will rebound. Then, on the same token, when a system becomes better organized, they find ways to say the system will become less organized/poof/dissipate. Only some do this.....and it is very puzzling why, and it is VERY hard to follow their thoughts.
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Quoting connie1976:
Can I celebrate now? It seems like 94l is going to miss south florida now.....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I thought it was strange today.....the weather channel admited that they had no clue where 94l was going and if it was going to be a td or not...lol


No, we need to see consistency. The ECMWF had it in the GOM the previous run. If it shows it going out to sea for two more runs, then we may have a new pattern.
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Quoting futuremet:


Yup it does a shortwave trough and recurves it. If it does that for three more runs, then we may be looking at a trend here.

Gee...I'm glad I'm not betting on this stuff...
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Yeah I know and good point but I guess I mean I don't really get excited until a storm has formed. A lot of I's but screw it. lol
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I love the troll on troll confrontations today! The Hurricrips vs The Cyclone Bloods
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Quoting eddye:
people listen this is the one florida needs to lookout for


Stormno?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
Can I celebrate now? It seems like 94l is going to miss south florida now.....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I thought it was strange today.....the weather channel admited that they had no clue where 94l was going and if it was going to be a td or not...lol
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nos tienen del tingo al tango!
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Hurricane Statement
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

...ADVANCING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS BEING
ACTIVELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION
OR NAMED STORM...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO/...AND ROUGH SEAS. THEREFORE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE THAT INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN ITS
POSITION AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLASH FLOODING...DO NOT TRY
TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS IN YOUR VEHICLE.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
011900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.090831T1854Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
254 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

...RAIN AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLASH FLOODING...DO NOT TRY
TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS IN YOUR VEHICLE.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A NAMED SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CAUSING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PEAK BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.

...MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...PEAKING AT 7 TO
8 FEET BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO HEED CAUTION AND ADVISORIES AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
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I'm not refering to questions, I'm talking about people coming on to this blog making statements about shear, models, circulation, etc. when they have no idea what they're talking about. It's a complete waste, and serves zero purpose. I'm not an expert either, but making comments in direct conflict with those who are based on "feelings" or "observations" is what defines a troll...
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If CMC verifies... then those upgrades done to it this year... sure have helped get its reputation almost to par with ECMWF.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


so it has it moving north before that ridge even moves in, right?


Boy, that sure is an original path. lol
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Quoting Chicklit:
2 p.m. Discussion says "favorable," and 2 p.m. Outlook says "marginally favorable."
Is there some disagreement within the NHC?
Pasch wrote the Outlook and Huffman wrote the Discussion...The plot thickens.


Tiddlywinks at DMAX... winner takes all.

Quoting KEHCharleston:
You are welcome ; )


Yeah for sure, thanks a bunch. ;) Though be nice for everyone for our invest to shoot through the Atlantic, less rain would be nice.

Though, it's still early in the year... these things (unless they do a Debbie/Faith or really quite strong at one point in their lives) are usually just a bit of rain and wind. Gets a bit more interesting in October when the winter storm "season" (if you can call it that) starts.

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Quoting NARCHER:
recon data from jimena ?? anyone getting data?


You can look at the raw data at Tropical Atlantic and/or paste it into their decoder. On the right had side of the page under "East / Central Pacific Basin" then select "High Density (HDOB) Message (URPN15)". That is the data to paste into the decoder.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11305
Quoting futuremet:


Good afternoon folks!

Stormchaser, don't take back what you said last night, because you are correct. The upper level anticyclonic flow associated with it will continue to move in harmony with it, as it moves westward. The upper levellow is not stationary, and will gradually move westward. The upper level low enables upper anticyclonic flow directly to its eastern axis, providing favorable conditions for outflow. This is why the ECMWF strengthens it over the next 48hrs.

I must commend you futuremet for always presenting things in a concise and informative manner. Your level of knowledge is excellent ,thanks for the explanation.
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Quoting scott1968:


Go Falcons! lol I knows it's a weather blog but waves bore me.


Even Katrina came from a wave
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
There's a reason why StormW,Drakeon, weather456 are silent right now.....Because aint nothing going on right now! down the road, sure.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
the ECMF turns 94l away radically north for
no reason other than previous track history
is my guess. with the ridge building further west
that solution should be tossed quick.

MOST LIKELY IF 94L STAYS "WEAKER" IT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WEST.

Someone argue with me. [laughs]
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Good Afternoon all,

What a difference a few hours make! This morning the system wasn't looking quite a healthy in terms of organized cloud structure. Satellite loops indicate that deep convection has consolidated better and if it sustains this then this will aid in the development of a more pronounced circulation center. Banding features appear to me developing (particularly on the north-eastern side, and also judging from the last few frames, the southern side also.
Link
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94=Fay take 2.

It very well is similar to Fay in the pre-development stages....looking very good but lacking a well-defined center.....which means as soon as it does gain a well-defined center, it would seem 94L should be designated Tropical Depression Six.
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Quoting Relix:
@viequessun : Never, absolutely never, drop your guard. It's just prediction based on movements. Watch it until it's north or even over us. All is possible with nature!!!
Thanks just wondering we dont have a hurricane since georges 98
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667. eddye
fmbill it looks likeit is trying to wrap the moisture around that on the other side in the circulation
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Quoting stormsurge39:
You know hurricanes are exciting when there out in the water. Its a different thing when they hit land!! Ive been in many hurricanes since 1979 and every time one gets close the excitement goes up. Ive come to realize this excitement is fear and i have learned to respect this awesome force. Take advantage of this time and be prepared for a hurricane. Its easy to underestimate if you have not been in one. Use Patraps list on here and any other list you can get. Also old school tracking on a map will never let you down.
Quoting futuremet:
12Z ECMWF--Out to sea


so it has it moving north before that ridge even moves in, right?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting AllStar17:
Anyone read this from Dr. M?

"Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days."


The thing is, this year we have seen Dr M. and many forecasters considerably underestimate the shear affecting storms. The shear forecasts have had very little skill so far this season, so naturally people are a little skeptical of them. Especially when the system is showing visible evidence of shear effects.
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Quoting Chicklit:
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO..."
hmmm...marginally favorable?
This is also the 2 p.m. post, so could it have been amended?!
SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N52W. MAXIMUM VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW BASED ON CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE AND TPW IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED AND MAINTAINED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 17N THAT IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 49W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 54W-58W AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-52W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 12 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


We call that here in PR "O te peinas o te haces rolos", or "Comb your hair or put it up in rollers".

lol

Got to love the tropics
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
Appears that the 12Z ECMWF is stronger with 94L and following CMC's steps.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
661. eddye
people listen this is the one florida needs to lookout for
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Good Afternoon All!

One thing to consider for the longer term track of 94L is the impact of Jimena...

Jimena's mid and upper level remnants will head into the Southwest US. This, in conjunction with the Upper Level Low in the Pacific Northwest will break down the ridge that has been dominant over the West most of the summer.

This should lead height increases over the eastern US...as is forecast by many of the models, and a more westward track for 94L. The exact influence is tough to nail down though. The ridging over the Southeast isn't overly pronounced enough to steer 94L due west (at least in the most recent models).

GFDL 500mb Vorticity
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Quoting eddye:
everyone it becoming better organized and i think this could be the one that fl needs to watch


i have been saying this for two days now guys. i dont have a good feeling about her.
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It looks like 94L is trying to incorporate the entire area of moisture as its system. It looks like it will soon include all the thunderstorm activity from 49 to 59.

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Quoting nolacane2009:
Thanks for the reply. Everyone will not have to worry about me trying to put my two cents in because I am far from an expert. I come here to ask questions and learn that is about it.


Go Falcons! lol I knows it's a weather blog but waves bore me.
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Quoting hurricane23:
12z EURO a tad stronger but suggest recurve.


Yup it does a shortwave trough and recurves it. If it does that for three more runs, then we may be looking at a trend here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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