Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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3258. IKE
5:02 PM GMT on September 05, 2009
12Z NOGAPS...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3257. Hhunter
11:30 AM GMT on August 31, 2009

let there be life and there was...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
3256. CaribBoy
9:19 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
As predicted 94L is firing nice convection again. Now looks to be moving slighlt north of due west. JMO
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6142
3255. PensacolaDoug
7:55 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
New blog up.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
3254. markymark1973
7:54 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Now were getting somewhere. FINALLY have some convection near the center of 94L. Now lets see if it can persist another 12 hours. The next 12 hours will tell if this is going to be the real deal or not.
3253. bballerf50
7:47 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


No doubt there... latidude, convection and organization have all been on the increase since last night.


yup
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3252. PensacolaDoug
7:45 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting bballerf50:
im just saying she gained some latitude yesterday...


No doubt there... latitude, convection and organization have all been on the increase since last night.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
3251. bballerf50
7:39 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
im just saying she gained some latitude yesterday...
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3249. mikatnight
7:38 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
It occurs to me that in order for me to wake up to an NHC special update, I must first go to sleep. 'Nite all. Keep the home fires burning...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3248. Acorna
7:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, Ray's eyes ain't what they used to be...
It really shouldn't, but I had to stifle a laugh on that one.

Goodnight, all. 94's looking rather impressive now and I think I'll wake up to a TD or TS in the morning...
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
3247. lordhuracan01
7:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2009


3:41
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3246. bballerf50
7:36 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
she ended up pretty far north
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
3244. mikatnight
7:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting wunderkidcayman:



Bet the next run for that has a red dot in it - but now I'm just being cocky...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3243. wunderkidcayman
7:31 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11707
3242. wunderkidcayman
7:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2009

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11707
3241. mikatnight
7:27 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Stevie Wonder maybe...RC's dead...


Yeah, Ray's eyes ain't what they used to be...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3240. mikatnight
7:26 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
I expect to wake up and find NHC special update to TD at least, wouldn't be surprised if it went straight to TS. But I'm no expert, just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3239. PensacolaDoug
7:25 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


You're probably right, but it seems to me even Ray Charles could see that's a tropical cyclone...


Stevie Wonder maybe...RC's dead...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
3237. Seastep
7:17 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Goodnight. See if I can get a few more hours of shuteye.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3236. wunderkidcayman
7:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
ok guys voting time
94L will become:
td-6
ts erika
in the next 24-48 hours
-------------------
will 94L become any of the above at:
11am
2pm
5pm
8pm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11707
3235. mikatnight
7:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
And a rather large one at that.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3234. mikatnight
7:13 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Woke up and decided to check out what 94L is up to. Looks to be passing 14 N--and considerably better organized. However, the NHC will probably wait for good visible sat pics before upgrading. That means 11 am.


You're probably right, but it seems to me even Ray Charles could see that's a tropical cyclone...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3231. mikatnight
7:09 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Looks like Erika to me...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3230. Seastep
7:09 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Blackout over on SSD:

removed. Now I see what happened to JLPR. It was there.
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3227. JLPR
7:09 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
im out too

I wonder what I will find tomorrow
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3222. Seastep
7:01 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3221. Tracker09
7:01 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
This invest is looking really good, convection is blowing up near the center, all that we need now is an expansion and we have a depression!
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3220. Seastep
6:59 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
JLPR - see that now. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3219. JLPR
6:59 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
JLPR - As sullivanweather showed on last page, Nasa sat has started back up here:

Link


I changed the picture
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3218. msphar
6:59 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
go North girl! g'nite
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
3216. Seastep
6:58 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
JLPR - As sullivanweather showed on last page, Nasa sat has started back up here:

Link
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3214. JLPR
6:56 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting Seastep:


Actually looks better now at 2:51am EDT. That pic is from 11:45pm EDT yesterday. Blackout.


the image was updated but then it went back in time
sdd sucks lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
3212. Seastep
6:56 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
much better

its better than yesterday's d-max since yesterday's d-max convection looked a bit ragged but this one is looking round and deep

I say TD if it maintains its convection till 11am


Actually looks better now at 2:51am EDT. That pic is from 11:45pm EDT yesterday. Blackout.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
3210. cheetaking
6:54 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
Here's a look at the steering winds... if it stays weak...



Or if it gets up to hurricane strength...
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
3208. JLPR
6:52 AM GMT on August 31, 2009
much better

its better than yesterday's d-max since yesterday's d-max convection looked a bit ragged but this one is looking round and deep

I say TD if it maintains its convection till 11am
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.