Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Who stupid enough to ban StormW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Hot off the press. If I am wrong then clearly I am in good company


That arrow is telling me its moving W or even slightly WWNW
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Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Is there really a tornado warning for the county?

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
GALVESTON COUNTY...

AT 949 PM CDT...WEBCAMS AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED THE
WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE BETWEEN 37TH AND 25 STREETS ON GALVESTON
ISLAND. RADAR IS NOT CLEARLY PICKING UP THE ROTATION...BUT MOVEMENT
IS LIKELY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS BETWEEN THE
SEAWALL AND PELICAN ISLAND SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW.

* LOCATIONS IN THE THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SCHLITTERBAHN...PELICAN ISLAND...MOODY GARDENS...GALVESTON STATE
PARK AND JAMAICA BEACH

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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2904. Acorna
Quoting NOVArules:



It won't hit Virginia! We have an invisible hurricane shield :D
Named "North Carolina" :P
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2903. flsky
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just to let everyone know StormW shares my site as a featured blogger. He posts every update on my site as he has been given full access....


Just for clarification sake - doesn't a ban get you banned from all the blogs?
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2902. Patrap
Time of Latest Image: 200908310215

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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Quoting txalwaysprepared: it was the first thing said when channel 11 news came on going to check and see if any if the weather cams picked it up
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Quoting amd:


yes, right on Galveston beach. just saw it on the nbc station here in Houston


It's for the Island, not the county :)
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Quoting blaketheturtle:
This morning it looked like the models were taking 94L north of the Lesser Antilles but now they are taking them over.

I hope it doesn't go into the Caribbean and/or GOM.

I am in Houston and we don't need another Ike.


With all due respect I just don't think this 1 will make it to Houston TX, and yes you all over there donot need another IKE thats for sure.... This is what I'm seeing right now.... But a GOM or even S FL is not yet out of the question....

Taco :0)
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As usual..it's too early to tell where 94 will go and how strong it (if) will get. (Again, Lesser Antilles keep a vigilant watch) While scanning past posts, someone actually predicted that 94 would not only hit Fla., but what counties! Lots of crazy talk on here.
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2897. centex
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like this train is headed west, at least for the moment.

It would need to be up at 20N to have steering N.
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2896. Patrap
Quoting pottery:
Looking at the loops on 94L
There is no rotation. There is no obvious center.
As Kman said earlier, the thing has the structure of a Tropical Wave, so far.
The motion is hard to keep track of, because the convection is jumping around.
The AVN Water Vapour loop has a missing period between 22:15 and 00:45, that makes the thing look like it jumped north. But that looks to be an illusion.
During the early hours of the morning we will see if the system can get a better organisation. If it does, the center may consolidate.
Just my take...



Maybe retake a moment and check out the RAAMB Page on 94L..its found on the Tropical /Hurricane Page on the wunderground.


94L Wind Field 00 UTC

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2895. amd
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Is there really a tornado warning for the county?


yes, right on Galveston beach. just saw it on the nbc station here in Houston
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Quoting DestinJeff:
To recap briefly ...

WS plagiarism posts: 236
StormW banned posts: 171

Its a close race, stay tuned!


Please don't tell me you actually went back and tallied them all up.
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Quoting texascoastres:
maybe getting a little rain and relief tonight. water spouts spotted just west of the island and tornado warnings issued for galveston county texas.


Is there really a tornado warning for the county?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2892. amd
last post for tonight: there is at least 2 LLC's with 94L. How? Look at the ship reports from the area of 94L.

Link
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
2891. pottery
Looking at the loops on 94L
There is no rotation. There is no obvious center.
As Kman said earlier, the thing has the structure of a Tropical Wave, so far.
The motion is hard to keep track of, because the convection is jumping around.
The AVN Water Vapour loop has a missing period between 22:15 and 00:45, that makes the thing look like it jumped north. But that looks to be an illusion.
During the early hours of the morning we will see if the system can get a better organisation. If it does, the center may consolidate.
Just my take...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think StormW should make his own website and everyone on Wunderground can just switch to his blog


Just to let everyone know StormW shares my site as a featured blogger. He posts every update on my site as he has been given full access....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
It looks like this train is headed west, at least for the moment.

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DMAX is about to begin!! yummo- as in the words of racheal ray!!
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2885. Patrap
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

Only when the tropics get active and into the Mode,do admin crack down. I got a 24 Last week but nobody noticed. Its Like a Badge of Honor or a rite of Passage.
Plus..I thought Pia Zadora's legs looked good.
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For those of you that are unfamiliar with how the world turns, leaders all ALWAYS held to higher standards, as they should be. Now, back to the tropics...
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Is that arrow pointing the direction I think it is?


It is but don't get too worked up over that. Many a forecast has never panned out. We will know more tomorrow.

Out now.
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Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


WU has legal responsibilities to live up to, if they don't demonstrate they are living up to those responsibilities, they leave themselves open to being sued. Companies with copyrights have to demonstrate that they aggressively enforce the copyright or else they run the risk of the copyright becoming public domain.

In short, let it go.


If that's true I see your point and I will let it go. Just wanted to let admin know there are many of us who come here to see what he has to say. On another note, what's going on in the tropics?
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My new public advisory on Krovanh
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2878. flsky
Just a note - pics take up quite a bit of bandwidth. That might be why Admin is more stringent with this rule.
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maybe getting a little rain and relief tonight. water spouts spotted just west of the island and tornado warnings issued for galveston county texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Hot off the press. If I am wrong then clearly I am in good company


Is that arrow pointing the direction I think it is?
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2873. jipmg
Quoting jipmg:
Local mets saying 94L will slow down dramatically as it moves WNW, then possibly W, and back WNW


Models saying that 4 days from now, it could be just over the northern antilles
2872. MZV
While it's early in the DMAX, 94L seems to be developing at least two spiral bands. I think we'll wake up tomorrow and see a decent-to-nice structure.

Remember. West of 55, and they come alive...
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2871. jipmg
Local mets saying 94L will slow down dramatically as it moves WNW, then possibly W, and back WNW
Quoting caneluver:


Does the X mean it's a depression


The X is a forecasted position
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Westward hoooo... unfortunately...
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2866. jipmg
DMAX is beginning
This morning it looked like the models were taking 94L north of the Lesser Antilles but now they are taking them over.

I hope it doesn't go into the Caribbean and/or GOM.

I am in Houston and we don't need another Ike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



thunderstorms popping over the "coc"
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2863. Patrap
A Big red X..they always Look Like a Senate Floor Presentation...LOL
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Hi all, Just letting everyone her know i am doing fine after a rather traumatic night last night, didnt get much sleep, but I'll be fine.
I noticed StormW got banned, I wish a few other posters in here got banned forever.
I hope Jimena weakens b4 landfall on Baja and 94L doesnt make it into the jacuzzi(GOM).
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Quoting naplesdoppler:
Come on Admin, I know you are smarter than that. Use some logic.... I know there have been worse things. A lot of people come here to read StromW posts. Am I wrong WU bloggers??


WU has legal responsibilities to live up to, if they don't demonstrate they are living up to those responsibilities, they leave themselves open to being sued. Companies with copyrights have to demonstrate that they aggressively enforce the copyright or else they run the risk of the copyright becoming public domain.

In short, let it go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hot off the press. If I am wrong then clearly I am in good company

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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