Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting flsky:


My son is scheduled to fly there tomorrow morning, as well. Has your airline or hotel not given you any warnings. I would have expected some cancellations by now.


I won't get cancelled until Dallas, if I do...
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StormW's bann was not as bad as mine was. He can post on his blog......heck i could not 3 weeks ago when i was banned for posting links to ther claim to create traffic to my site and them claiming i was selling things on my site...I posted a link for Troll Juice..It was just mixed drink receipes that others had posted....LOL......What a joke that was. I respect what the Admin. has to do with his/her job. But, a little common sence is also needed.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Has anyone been yacking about this going into the gulf?

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Patrap -- I'm frankly surprised it hasn't blown up more. It looks to be in a fairly favorable moist air slot, with good overall symmetry, heading into favorable SSTs, without too much shear. I'm surprised the convection is so disorganized and dispersed. I would have expected some sort of CDO to have formed in conjunction with a COC by now. Just trying to understand why is is not.
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94L is finally going to spin up. It's at about 14N and 49W.
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2952. will40
Can Admin give us some clarification on this? Ha they still havent answered me in Mail
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2951. flsky
Quoting CycloneOz:


My flight to CaboSL leaves at 6:00AM tomorrow and I arrive before noon local time.

I've packed my Category V CycloneOz hurricane suit for this one...very dangerous and scary.

My ground support team will be directing me to "The Weather Channel's" remote site after the storm abates to upload my HD footage to the mothership.

Stay tuned for updates from StormJunkie and PensacolaDoug!


My son is scheduled to fly there tomorrow morning, as well. Has your airline or hotel not given you any warnings. I would have expected some cancellations by now.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's to hoping you upload your videos of Jimena to YouTube as you did for Dolly. I enjoyed it.


Glad you enjoyed it! Here's a brand new one for you! :)

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Quoting WeatherStudent:
WeatherMan, do not make me reveal everything that you told me about drak not too long ago through facebok, ok? Do not force me, acere. anyways g'nite


Only fools would seek to cause needless conflict on a weather blog.

Sounds like you and Drak have something going on. Jealousy, perhaps?
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Quoting CycloneOz:


My flight to CaboSL leaves at 6:00AM tomorrow and I arrive before noon local time.

I've packed my Category V CycloneOz hurricane suit for this one...very dangerous and scary.

My ground support team will be directing me to "The Weather Channel's" remote site after the storm abates to upload my HD footage to the mothership.

Stay tuned for updates from StormJunkie and PensacolaDoug!


Here's to hoping you upload your videos of Jimena to YouTube as you did for Dolly. I enjoyed it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll talk to you on weather chat for a bit if you like.




vary well
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2945. will40
StormW is blogging on his blog when i was just there
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Quoting TriniGirl26:
Who stupid enough to ban StormW?


StromW banned???
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2943. flsky
Quoting will40:
I got banned fri nite and i was able to blog on any blog except thisone


Can Admin give us some clarification on this?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



IM me Please


I'll talk to you on weather chat for a bit if you like.
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Quoting blaketheturtle:


I've lurked on this site for a couple of years, but hasn't StormW proved himself to be a little emotionally unstable? I can't imagine he's taking this too well.
Quoting blaketheturtle:
Let he among us who is not "a little emotionally unstable" forecast the first unstable weather. StormW can take care of himself.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It's amazing how few people are talking about Jimena. She has is much more threatening than 94L.


My flight to CaboSL leaves at 6:00AM tomorrow and I arrive before noon local time.

I've packed my Category V CycloneOz hurricane suit for this one...very dangerous and scary.

My ground support team will be directing me to "The Weather Channel's" remote site after the storm abates to upload my HD footage to the mothership.

Stay tuned for updates from StormJunkie and PensacolaDoug!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It's amazing how few people are talking about Jimena. She is much more threatening than 94L.



IM me Please
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2937. Patrap
Quoting WunderFul:
There's probably a Geico employee on the blog monitoring for insurance risk assessment -- it is a good site for advance information. I bet a number of business people use this site. Be careful what you post. (And no, I am in no way affiliated with the little lizard.)

Patrap -- if still out there, are you watching that ULL north of 94L for possible long range development too? (Your Claudette comment earlier.) Wouldn't they suck the life out of each other? Is that what's happening now? 94L sure seems to be taking its sweet time getting its act together.



94L is a Large Circulation,..a CV one at that.

Id give 94L the respect it demands as it makes its way wnw thru time.

Were entering that critical time where these CV Lo runners can deviate and maintain themselves to they find a good environment.
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I got blasted for inappropriate images as well (guess it was the Elephant Cloud that did it). I had noticed that StormW did it also, on occasion. I guess they're cracking down on crime hard!

Take a BITE out of crime!
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Well, I got classes tomorrow, so I'm gonna be heading off to bed. Have a good night you all and I hope for a resolution to the major issue that occurred this afternoon.
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2934. hahaguy
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
At least our local channel 12 met said to keep an eye on 94. This morning another T.V. met said going out to sea.


Ya they said on wflx to watch 94L.
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2933. Acorna
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
At least our local channel 12 met said to keep an eye on 94. This morning another T.V. met said going out to sea.
Same here, but our meteorologist tends to be a bit of an alarmist. Takes only the slightest chance of something abnormal to get the guy fired up, especially if it is snow or a tropical system. The last tropical system that came through here..everything shut down for. Everyone was anticipating its arrival. It ended up just being a gusty day, nothing to worry about. XD

On the flip side, his repeated record of crying wolf is concerning because when we do get a serious system, people may not prepare properly (expecting it to be as mild as the last one).
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2932. pottery
OOOPS! My Bad. Very Sorry.
There is indeed rotation in 94L.
Will be more careful in future>
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It's amazing how few people are talking about Jimena. She is much more threatening than 94L.
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GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector & Alley Animations for August 2009



Again, another month long animation brought to you courtesy of XtremeHurricanes.com and producer Brian Osburn featuring the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector and Alley imagery as provided by NOAA for August 2009. Take a stationary look from high up in space at the incredible tropical weather systems that can have a profound impact, not only on the United States, but other tropically bordered nations as well.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
At least our local channel 12 met said to keep an eye on 94. This morning another T.V. met said going out to sea.



HA!!! I am sure that isn't a LOCAL CARIBBEAN Channel...They Don't Know A from there.......
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There's probably a Geico employee on the blog monitoring for insurance risk assessment -- it is a good site for advance information. I bet a number of business people use this site. Be careful what you post. (And no, I am in no way affiliated with the little lizard.)

Patrap -- if still out there, are you watching that ULL north of 94L for possible long range development too? (Your Claudette comment earlier.) Wouldn't they suck the life out of each other? Is that what's happening now? 94L sure seems to be taking its sweet time getting its act together.
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2927. will40
Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope he can't blog on his either.....
I got banned fri nite and i was able to blog on any blog except thisone
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2926. Patrap
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I always enjoy your posts. Not always agree but always enjoy. Thank you again for your contribution to the blog. Enjoyed the legs was well. Oops...I guess I'll live dangerously. Did you say, you're getting hail in your parts?


T-storm was earlier..all quiet Uptown now.
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2925. gator23
Quoting jaxairportman:
Yes I agree also lets all email the admin. on this one. It is time for this comedy show to end. Thake the Shower curtin down!


I agree, where do you think StormW is heading sir?
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Quoting blaketheturtle:


How long will it take before it hits the Gulf or S FL? I am a newbie and not good with how fast these things move. 4 or 5 days?


It is way to soon to really know how long it will take..... At current speedand movement it could take about 6 to 7 days....

But do understand if it speeds up or slows down makes a big difference....

taco :0)
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At least our local channel 12 met said to keep an eye on 94. This morning another T.V. met said going out to sea.
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2922. will40
Quoting blaketheturtle:


I've lurked on this site for a couple of years, but hasn't StormW proved himself to be a little emotionally unstable? I can't imagine he's taking this too well.
StormW will be just fine.
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2921. centex
Quoting BenBIogger:
If you assume that is 1/2 the circulation than it's still around 12.5.
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Quoting Patrap:
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

Only when the tropics get active and into the Mode,do admin crack down. I got a 24 Last week but nobody noticed. Its Like a Badge of Honor or a rite of Passage.
Plus..I thought Pia Zadora's legs looked good.
I always enjoy your posts. Not always agree but always enjoy. Thank you again for your contribution to the blog. Enjoyed the legs as well. Oops...I guess I'll live dangerously. Did you say, you're getting hail in your parts?
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2919. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
3:00 AM UTC August 31 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: A Hurricane Watch In Force

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (940 hPa) located at 17.0N 107.2W or 220 NM south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
60 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A HURRICANE WATCH for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula has been issued. This extends southward from Bahia Magdalena on the west coast around the southern tip of the peninsula and northward to San Everisto on the east coast

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.8N 108.0W - 130 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.2N 109.1W - 130 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 23.4N 111.0W - 120 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.0N 112.5W - 65 kts (SSHS-1 Cyclone)

---
Dangerous cyclone is dangerous.. close forecast to Category 5!
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Quoting blaketheturtle:


I've lurked on this site for a couple of years, but hasn't StormW proved himself to be a little emotionally unstable? I can't imagine he's taking this too well.



sigh.....
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Quoting will40:
Just for clarification sake - doesn't a ban get you banned from all the blogs? Nope just for this one which is called Main blogg


Nope he can't blog on his either.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting blaketheturtle:


I've lurked on this site for a couple of years, but hasn't StormW proved himself to be a little emotionally unstable? I can't imagine he's taking this too well.



He is not emotionally unstable....the man knows his stuff...Give him credit where credit is due
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Quoting Acorna:
Named "North Carolina" :P


hahahaha, that was funny :)
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Quoting pottery:
Looking at the loops on 94L
There is no rotation. There is no obvious center.
As Kman said earlier, the thing has the structure of a Tropical Wave, so far.
The motion is hard to keep track of, because the convection is jumping around.
The AVN Water Vapour loop has a missing period between 22:15 and 00:45, that makes the thing look like it jumped north. But that looks to be an illusion.
During the early hours of the morning we will see if the system can get a better organisation. If it does, the center may consolidate.
Just my take...


What do you mean there is no rotation? There is cleare cyclonic turning evident on all satellite loops, and as indicated by recent vorticy maps.
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2912. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

Only when the tropics get active and into the Mode,do admin crack down. I got a 24 Last week but nobody noticed. Its Like a Badge of Honor or a rite of Passage.
Plus..I thought Pia Zadora's legs looked good.


Whoa.... You might be headed that way again!
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2911. jipmg
Quoting pottery:
Looking at the loops on 94L
There is no rotation. There is no obvious center.
As Kman said earlier, the thing has the structure of a Tropical Wave, so far.
The motion is hard to keep track of, because the convection is jumping around.
The AVN Water Vapour loop has a missing period between 22:15 and 00:45, that makes the thing look like it jumped north. But that looks to be an illusion.
During the early hours of the morning we will see if the system can get a better organisation. If it does, the center may consolidate.
Just my take...


mhm there is clearly a broad rotation even in infared..
Quoting taco2me61:


With all due respect I just don't think this 1 will make it to Houston TX, and yes you all over there donot need another IKE thats for sure.... This is what I'm seeing right now.... But a GOM or even S FL is not yet out of the question....

Taco :0)


How long will it take before it hits the Gulf or S FL? I am a newbie and not good with how fast these things move. 4 or 5 days?
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2909. will40
Just for clarification sake - doesn't a ban get you banned from all the blogs? Nope just for this one which is called Main blogg
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Who stupid enough to ban StormW?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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