Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Intensity


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Well, I guess we will finally stop hearing "RIP 94l now".
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The ECMWF has the best handle on track. 94L aint moving NW anytime soon. Models have not been handling this system very well. Mind you, yesterday they said 94L will move NW and the system still hasnt done so and is now almost 4-5 degrees south of where they had it.
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IKE,

Do you think 94L will become a TD? and if it does where do you think it is headed? (I know you can't exactly know....but do you have a guess?)
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53. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
47, 48

LOL


I beat him to it.
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Good morning...
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51. IKE
6Z GFDL on 94L...
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.
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
THERES 2 MORE BIG FRONTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS COMMING DOWN THE STATES GONNA BLOCK ANYTHING FROM HITTING THE EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS THEY SAID THIS MORNING ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL


You mean for the next couple of days. Ridging pattern is expected to establish by Saturday.

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Red circle,

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47. IKE
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Every time I post, they say my post not edited: lets try:

Updated

Good Morning;

Lesser Antilles need to watch 94L
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
In the tropical Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure is located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished with this system as it fights shearing winds aloft, however it will be monitored for slow development as it moves off to the west-northwest.









????
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44. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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.
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(click to go to large pic)
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Quoting Weather456:
Updated

Good Morning;

Lesser Antilles need to watch 94L


Mornin' 456. Just read your update. Thanks, but it didn't make me feel any better...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
38. IKE
Good morning....

6Z HWRF takes 94L toward Bermuda.

00Z ECMWF.....doesn't do much of anything with 94L.


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.
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Puerto Rico NWS

SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.
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.
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First Light.
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94l is consolidating and a COC is trying to form 11.345.3W. the system is moving slightly northof due west.94L had to fight off northwesterly wind shear durind most of the night. at the moment there is an anticyclone over the system and both are moving in tandem to the west. the shear is expected to decrease and allow 94L to conslidate a little more. this morning the models are still up in array with the global models taking the system tonortheast of the islands while the shallower models take 94L through the islands.ill go through the islands by wednesday. all interest in the lesser antilles should monitor the progress of this system
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CMC doesn't dissipate 94L...

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:
Long range GFS disapates 94L...


It splits part of 94L's energy to the north and shoots it off to the NE. The GFS has trouble keeping heat in the tropics.
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Good Morning


This is part of the Puerto Rico's Discussion issued this morning @4.29


THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
THERES 2 MORE BIG FRONTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS COMMING DOWN THE STATES GONNA BLOCK ANYTHING FROM HITTING THE EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS THEY SAID THIS MORNING ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL


All hail TWC.
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Long range GFS disapates 94L...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Thanks Dr.C wow how things can change in 24 hours.
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Quoting ackee:
even if u get 3 cups u still see west


I thought so, Thanks...
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Quoting flibinite:
Strange, again (are all the systems acting strangely this year?!)... much of the peripheral convection has disappeared recently, yet the central convection seems to be getting more intense. Is this the normal precursor for stronger COC development?

Jo


Its consolidating...which is good for development.
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting viman:
Morning everyone, Is it me, because I don't see a WNW movement on 94L, still seems west to me....maybe I just to get a 2nd cup of coffee :)
even if u get 3 cups u still see west
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Morning everyone, Is it me, because I don't see a WNW movement on 94L, still seems west to me....maybe I just to get a 2nd cup of coffee :)
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
94L is really getting it act togther might see TD tonight if it continue
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Morning all. Hey Garns.
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I noticed Dr. Carver doesn't mention the Canadian model, which also sends 94L into the H-box. Is the cmc unreliable for invests?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.