Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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I am but a lowly layman, forgive me. But I just looked at the satellite loop and it looks to me to be heading twoards Barbados, will pass on or around, then into Caribbean.

Something like an Ivan track, though weaker at the moment.

How fast do y'all expect intensification?

This is the closest to the islands yet, particularly us in Barbados.
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107. SLU
Based on the microwave imagery the center appears to be near 11.3n 47.7W
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I provided a clear and concise explanation on track and flow and I'm sure StowmW would agree so I dont undertstand why he thinks I dont want it go out sea.

With Bill, I looked at the mid-level clouds streaming NW and said that it should turn more towards NW and out to sea. Then said that the trough amplified and pull him out sea.

Also said the same with Danny.

I try to be as objective as possible.
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Good morning all

Well, it looks like a brutal day on tap for the blog. Good thing I have my golf game this morning LOL

This time yesterday 94L was on life support and this is a classic example of how important it is sometimes to simply wait and watch.

The system has had a good night and now it has to hold on to those gains to make TD status. The quikscat pass indicates that it is not there yet and is still a wave.

As far as where it is going I have always been of the view that it would enter the Caribbean near 16N. Time will tell.

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Quoting KEHCharleston:
88. SQUAWK

Thanks !

Geography is not my strong suit. It really helps to see it on a google map. Much appreciated.


Your welcome.
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101. ackee
anyone read crown weather Discussion just posted seem logical NE carrb need pay close eye on 94L
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88. SQUAWK

Thanks !

Geography is not my strong suit. It really helps to see it on a google map. Much appreciated.
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Quoting Weather456:


Oh brother. Leave it there cuz its going no where.

And before you go and say I dont want it go out to sea, ready by thoughts. Someone could say your always biased when you post info so just as easily I respect your opnion, respect mines.


Not pulling you up about your grammar, or anything, but is English your first language?
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Quoting Dakster:


So true. When it does it here, lookout. The final clue is that most/all of the birds disappear.


Exactly, I was here for Hurricane David in 1979, thirty years ago this weekend, and the frigate birds and other sea birds quit. And the night before David smashed into us the insects and tree lizards were chirping something crazy....apparently they have a very acute sense of air pressure change....it all figures.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
@75

Personal foul. Roughing the Ikester. 15 yards, automatic 1st down.



lets let cool heads prevail ... when regulars start bikering its like a moth to flames and the trolls show up to do their thing

That's pretty funny.
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Everyone have a good day watching 94L... I'll check back in later and see what happens.
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93. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


Oh brother. Leave it there cuz its going no where.

And before you go and say I dont want it go out to sea, ready by thoughts. Someone could say your always biased when you post info so just as easily I respect your opnion, respect mines.


Thanks for answering my question.

When did the NHC say the islands would feel some impacts from 94L?
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92. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
@75

Personal foul. Roughing the Ikester. 15 yards, automatic 1st down.



lets let cool heads prevail ... when regulars start bikering its like a moth to flames and the trolls show up to do their thing


I don't care what he thinks about me. I could care less. If he thinks I'm a "downcaster", that's his opinion.
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Good Morning everyone....

Well so far so good for the gulf states..i'm in SWLA and we have been lucky so far this season...knock on wood....
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
Good morning KEHCharleston, tks for the image, Yes today we are going to the supermarket and buy just the important things in case of hurricanes, it is sad that here down in Mexico the Media doesn't say much about the hurricane so I think that the people will be doing the panic shopping tonight or tomorrow in the morning. Let's see what happens.

Good day to all.

George
Keep checking in with us and let us know how it is going. The model tracks are not consistent, so you will definitely have to watch this one.
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.
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So, am I to take it that the DMax worked wonders with 94L?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
@75

Personal foul. Roughing the Ikester. 15 yards, automatic 1st down.



lets let cool heads prevail ... when regulars start bikering its like a moth to flames and the trolls show up to do their thing


LOL!

I was trying to figure out how to say what you essentially just did. Beautifully, I might add.
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Quoting Dakster:


So true. When it does it here, lookout. The final clue is that most/all of the birds disappear.


I agree, in Barbados it has been quite hot the last few days. That humid heat you mentioned.

But, a bit too early for the birds to fly, they are chirping outside. Quite breezy now actually. Lovely day.
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94L 6:16 AM EDT


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Good morning KEHCharleston, tks for the image, Yes today we are going to the supermarket and buy just the important things in case of hurricanes, it is sad that here down in Mexico the Media doesn't say much about the hurricane so I think that the people will be doing the panic shopping tonight or tomorrow in the morning. Let's see what happens.

Good day to all.

George
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81. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


What. Obviously you did not read my blog this morning. The system will pull north but you sit there and ignore the fact that StormW, many others on here, the NHC and the Weather Channel all stated that the islands will feel some impacts from 94L.

I live in the islands and even our met, but you just continuing with downcasting every single thing this yr.


No, I did not read your blog. When did the NHC say the islands would feel some impacts from 94L?

Here's what they said..."INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."


Does that say they will experience impacts from 94L?
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Quoting futuremet:
Well, I guess we will finally stop hearing "RIP 94l now".


Yes, but yesterday it DID look rather weakened, no?

Jeez, can anyone sign Billy Ocean's 'Suddenly' for 94L?

Just took a casual look at the satellite photo and got en eyeful of its new life.
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Quoting islandblow:
Well I am at 15.5N x 61W and satelite pictures and computer models aside, here on the ground its clear blue skies with little puffs of cloud hanging there, the sea glassy to gentle swell and stagnant humid heat with only a little rustle of breeze now and then and sweat running down my back at 8.45am. The old people call this "hurricane food" a clear pathway for stormy weather.....Well we will see if it is indeed a pathway in the hours ahead and if the technology confirms the "old wives tales".


So true. When it does it here, lookout. The final clue is that most/all of the birds disappear.
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HMMMMMM.

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Good morning WU community. Well, what a difference 24 hours can make. 94L is looking the best in its evolution so far this morning. Very nice convective activity around the circulation center. The system is also beginning the ventilate, with improved outflow and it has slowed in its forward motion.

Conditions appear reasonably favorable for 94L to continue to further organize today. It remains to seen if the system will directly impact the Lesser Antilles, or if it will just miss them to the north later this week. This is going to be a real close call. All interests there in the islands definitely needs to stay vigilant regarding the system.

If the environmental conditions around 94L currently remains this way for the next 2 days, it will be named by this time tomorrow in my view. However, the models are forecasting shear to increase the closer 94L approaches the Caribbean Islands by mid week. Therefore, it will be a question whether 94L can survive as an entity the latter half of this week.

Have a great day everyone.
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Quoting IKE:


Which you don't want.


What? Obviously you did not read my blog this morning. The system will pull north eventually.


NWS Puerto Rico

SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.
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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
Hello, good morning... can u tell me something about Jimena please? I'm in La Paz baja california sur méxico, I'll go to Los Cabos on Mondat morning so I can cover better the Jimena's path... just wanna know the intensity at the nearest point of baja's peninsula.


Good morning George

Hope my prior posts helped. Wish someone who knows how to put the plots on google earth would do so.

Bottom line right now. (Which you probably already know)
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73. IKE
Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT THESE CYCLONE ARE GONNA DO JUST WATCH DAY BY DAY AND DONT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE COMPUTER MODELS SAY OR THE PRO WEATHER FORCASTERS SAY THEY WILL CHANGE THINGS EVERY 3 HOURS JUST WATCH FOR YOURSELVES AND WATCH WHAT YOUR ANIMALS DO


LOL..."your animals do." I do have a poodle that senses the weather.
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70. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


and now the pushing out to sea continues.


Which you don't want.
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
VERY BORING SEASON THIS YHEAR SO MUCH FOR THE 14 STORMS PREDICTED I DONT BELIEVE WE WILL SAY A LANDFALLING STORM ANYWHERE THIS YEAR


Didn't Claudette qualify as a landfall? Are you wrong as usual?
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00Z ECMWF 120 hour position, north of Virgin Islands


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Well I am at 15.5N x 61W and satelite pictures and computer models aside, here on the ground its clear blue skies with little puffs of cloud hanging there, the sea glassy to gentle swell and stagnant humid heat with only a little rustle of breeze now and then and sweat running down my back at 8.45am. The old people call this "hurricane food" a clear pathway for stormy weather.....Well we will see if it is indeed a pathway in the hours ahead and if the technology confirms the "old wives tales".
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Quoting futuremet:
Well, I guess we will finally stop hearing "RIP 94l now".


and now the pushing out to sea continues.
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64. IKE
Quoting connie1976:
IKE,

Do you think 94L will become a TD? and if it does where do you think it is headed? (I know you can't exactly know....but do you have a guess?)


I've been saying north of the islands. As far as intensity, I'll stick with the reliable ECMWF which does very little with it.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
anti-cyclone in place over 94L, helps explain increase in convection ... lower shear:



It looks as if 94L is currently experiencing 20knts of shear and heading for 30knts, with shear dropping thereafter as it travels further west. How long are these shear charts good for, though? Isn't the shear environment a rapidly changing situation?
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Mornin'IKE, Futuremet. That was quick - orange to red in 2 1/2 hours...
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
VERY BORING SEASON THIS YHEAR SO MUCH FOR THE 14 STORMS PREDICTED I DONT BELIEVE WE WILL SAY A LANDFALLING STORM ANYWHERE THIS YEAR


Wouldn't this be a good thing?
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Intensity


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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