Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting Grothar:
TO: Weather456

My quote button is not working this morning.

So a Kittitian, eh? Been there, beautiful island. We stayed at the Four Season, ever heard of it. That is why, many storms which have affected your area, may often affect us. Just concerned about the current models, not paranoid. Enjoy your input.


wow, glad to see you know our nationality.

well my island is the 2nd most affected country in the Caribbean when it comes to hurricanes. Only behind Cuba. I'm 21 and I'ved lived through 6 majors, and a few other hurricanes and tropical storms.

Those 6 are

Hugo
Luis
Marilyn
Georges
Lenny
Omar
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VERY Impressive:

I personally think the NHC should put up tropical storm watches for the Mexican coast, as some of the outer rainbands of Jimena lash the coast, causing maybe some tropical storm force wind gusts, which could create sporadic power outages. Baha California should now be preparing for the worst as Jimena heads their way.
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Morning nrti, good to see you as always!

That is a little over my head, I just like to pretend I know what I am talking about...And I didn't even stay in a HIE last night :)

Seriously though...What you are saying is that a deeper system would be kept more southerly because of the direction of the shear?
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Quoting jipmg:
can someone send me a link to the eastern pacific floaters? (Or satellite)


Link
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Hey Stormfreakyisher

Remember you from the other day. I live on the Intracoastal islands. That is why I rely on the information which I receive from this blog. When one is surrounded by water and only 1/2 mile from the ocean, it is wise to be aware of what may be out there. Nice place Boca.
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253. jipmg
can someone send me a link to the eastern pacific floaters? (Or satellite)
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from what I can see from this weekend that there is going to be a High in the east establish that will make almost everything go west and if the front that is on top of us(texas) will not bull this thing north it will most likely end somewhere in the gulf
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Good morning all



FM- I am having a hard time finding any model that shows the Bermuda/Azores high strengthening. It looks to me like the pattern is very similar to what it has been the past month. The Azores high is displaced well to the N and W while the Bermuda high is displaced to the N and E. Making it hard, if not impossible for them to bridge right now. That said, 94 would have to remain well to the S of the global models in order to not steer in to the weakness between the two highs. Am I missing something here?


The models show the Bermuda high...not really the Azores high strengthening, as a ridge start developing in the east coast by Saturday.

ECMWF

NCEP ensemble mean


The Azores high should not be that strong, since we are converting into a negative NAO. This may also mean less SAL.

ECMWF-GFS 240hr mean

An aggressive high will proliferate over the east coast.

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I've been away all week and suddenly WRONGASUSUAL is on hide. Does the system know who this is, or if another people vote him down does it hide that poster from everyone?

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning SG03, good to see you.

I am not in complete disagreement that it could continue more westerly. I think that it would have to remain weak and disorganized in order to do so. But if it intensifies, I just don't see how it does not slip through the weakness.

And the latest Xtrap now shows a more WNW motion.

One thing I found interesting, and have not understood, as I have seen it before. Is why the BAM models seem to be reversed with the Shallow being the more northerly, and the Deep being the more southerly.


Look at the shear direction from the SHIPS model, fron the N to NE through ~72 hours. BAMs and SHIP from GFS steering.
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Quoting Grothar:


GMT, UDT, Zulu, maybe!! Or in my case ADD, you know Attention Deficit Disorder. I wish I truly did know how the information of the times work. Could be a reason we all get informtion crossed and people begin to bicker, ya think?


Hey Grothar

I hear you, the times of model output combined with the various delays in imagery updates can get confusing. These learning videos on how to use some of the better model pages goes in to a some detail about the timing of model runs and UTC time.

I also find the GHCC site useful as it shows both UTC and your local time side by side. NHC imagery site does so as well.
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247. jipmg
Quoting BahaHurican:
WOW!!!



This is going straight to a 5
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246. IKE
240...can you break that up into paragraphs? Bad on the eyes.
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TO: Weather456

My quote button is not working this morning.

So a Kittitian, eh? Been there, beautiful island. We stayed at the Four Season, ever heard of it. That is why, many storms which have affected your area, may often affect us. Just concerned about the current models, not paranoid. Enjoy your input.
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Morning everyone!
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Quoting sporteguy03:


I hope admin comes up with a fix to ignore quotes of people you ignore.


that would be such a blessing.
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As promised, here is my 9:15 AM EDT update! Its rather brief because I have to go to church here now, Enjoy though!
Tropical Invest 94L growing more organized
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Outflow channels have developed poleward and equatorward. You can see this by looking at the banding developing on the north and south sides of the circulation. The circulation appears defined on the eastern side with some lacking on the western side. There is a sharp cyclonic motion on the eastern side, with a somewhat disorganized western side. Outflow is pretty good for an invest and anticyclonic flow aloft creating a ventilation system for the invest. Right shear is favorable over the invest with increasing shear to the northwest as there are two upper level lows to the NW and to the N. These two lows have an axis of strong wind shear stretching from the Lesser Antilles to the upper level low to the N. This axis should being to impinge on the invest and start to erode the NW side of the invest and therefore tend to weaken the disturbance. Once this continues the invest will remain weak and be steered westward into the Caribbean Sea where any intensification will be lucky to occur as wind shear and upper level lows dominant creating sinking air and cold dry air in their centers. A cyclonic flow aloft is detrimental to a tropical disturbance or cyclone. Tropical cyclones favor an anticyclone over the top creating a way for the convection to continue to vent allowing deeper stronger convection to continue to stay deep. Cyclonic flow aloft would inact strong shear on the system with no ventilation as the wind currents continue to steer the same way cutting down any chances for stronger and deeper convection to persist therefore cutting the lifeline of the tropical cyclone. 2005 was a monster year, defined by anticyclonic flow aloft in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as well as the Atlantic. Cape Verde Season was medium in development, but most of the storms developed in the Gulf, Caribbean Sea and the NW Atlantic ocean therefore homegrown. This season was identified as a la Nina season although some say it was a neutral season. Barely any wind shear, some dry air over the central and eastern Atlantic cut down on the Cape Verde long track storms, and a moist breeding ground in the areas favored for tropical cyclone development. This season is favored by an El Nino, a pattern favorable for strong wind shear which is evident by the amount of upper level lows staying persistent and not dying away. This pattern favors the Eastern Pacific as warm waters reach the area and wind shear is low. Jimena looks on her way to a category four hurricane probably in the next advisory, as a larger eye is more circular and more defined unlike earlier yesterday. Large canopy of
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WOW!!!

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How do you know if they are banned or not?
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Quoting superweatherman:
Good morning weather456 you think that 94l is going to make it to the gulf ..specially Texas


Morning to you. Your a bit better than me, I cant really be sure of anything out 5 days. But never say never. It would be interesting to see where 94L ends up becuz this one isnt as easy as the past 4 storms.
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Morning SG03, good to see you.

I am not in complete disagreement that it could continue more westerly. I think that it would have to remain weak and disorganized in order to do so. But if it intensifies, I just don't see how it does not slip through the weakness.

And the latest Xtrap now shows a more WNW motion.

One thing I found interesting, and have not understood, as I have seen it before. Is why the BAM models seem to be reversed with the Shallow being the more northerly, and the Deep being the more southerly.
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guys can we STOP Quoteing WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR and this put him on Ignore and hit ! the more time you hit ! on it the sooner they do some in about it


all so i have WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR on my Ignore so i would like it vary march that if you all dont : Quote him Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114760
233. jipmg
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Um are you sure it could form into a TD soon?Look at all the shear to the north of it.Will it die down soon?


Anti cyclone =P

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Maybe 94L may struggle a while before becoming a TD because of the 20knt shear ahead of it.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
It's easy folks! Ignore what you don't like...Quoting it just reiterates and gives a playing field to what you took offense to in the first place.



I hope admin comes up with a fix to ignore quotes of people you ignore.
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Good morning weather456 you think that 94l is going to make it to the gulf ..specially Texas
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I see that stormno (STORMTOP) is banned.

It appears obvious to me what his new handle is... and it actually fits his skills.
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It's easy folks! Ignore what you don't like...Quoting it just reiterates and gives a playing field to what you took offense to in the first place.

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Quoting java162:


you are from dominica like i am and we dont flood!!!!!


Yes indeed. When I said "rips these islands apart" I meant LANDSLIDES. Sorry I did not spell it out. And Barbados does flood badly in low lying usually inhabited areas
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Quoting tornadofan:


Daylight time or standard?


GMT, UDT, Zulu, maybe!! Or in my case ADD, you know Attention Deficit Disorder. I wish I truly did know how the information of the times work. Could be a reason we all get informtion crossed and people begin to bicker, ya think?
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Quoting Relix:


Man I am still trying to figure out why the models stick to such a dramatic NW turn >_>. I know there are troughs and all, but that hard turn!?


I'm thinking its related to the 700 mb high to the east of 94L. This image is from 00Z


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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
LIKE I SAID EARLIER THERE ARE A BUNCH OF HUGE FRONTS SLIPPING DOWN THE STATES OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS LIKE ONE EVERY 3 DAYS THAT WILL KEEP ANY STORMS COMMING FROM THE ATLANTIC ALL FISH FISH FISH STORMS


Nice to know Jason got banned.

Please calm down, unfortunately 94L is still extremely weak, and will therefore go due west.

Worst Case Scenario is that 94L increases intensity around 30 nm east of Cuba, will then head up either the eastern seaboard or hit (not a landfall though) florida and fizzle.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Good morning all



FM- I am having a hard time finding any model that shows the Bermuda/Azores high strengthening. It looks to me like the pattern is very similar to what it has been the past month. The Azores high is displaced well to the N and W while the Bermuda high is displaced to the N and E. Making it hard, if not impossible for them to bridge right now. That said, 94 would have to remain well to the S of the global models in order to not steer in to the weakness between the two highs. Am I missing something here?


Hey SJ, I think the NW pull has not verified yet, I agree if 94L was at a higher latitude yes it is more likely until it gets higher up I do not see it going out to sea yet, the NW motion has not materialized only a WNW has.
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Not to mention both highs have been fairly weak this year...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ana effected Puerto Rico and the Islands, Bill effected Heavily Bremuda and Canada, Claudette made landfall in the Panhandle of Florida, Danny effected parts of the mid-Atlantic states. Looks like your the one that needs to go back to bed, because we haven't seen a single 'fish storm' this year.



very true. We havnt had a fish storm this year.

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Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, Just saw your comment. I currently live in Ft. Lauderale, on one of the islands. Why do you ask? Where are you. Enjoy your blogs, by the way.


oh cool. I asked becuz you said you did not like the scenario so I thought maybe you was close by.

I'm currently in Saint Kitts.

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You live on an island in Fort Lauderdale?Do you mean barrier island?Well hello I am from Boca Raton just north of you.
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
LIKE I SAID EARLIER THERE ARE A BUNCH OF HUGE FRONTS SLIPPING DOWN THE STATES OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS LIKE ONE EVERY 3 DAYS THAT WILL KEEP ANY STORMS COMMING FROM THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM HITTING OUR EAST COAST HENSE KEEPING THEM ALL FISH STORMS LIKE THIS SEASON HAS BEEN SO FAR


stop the freakin CAPS moron
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Quoting WRONGASUSUALTHISYEAR:
LIKE I SAID EARLIER THERE ARE A BUNCH OF HUGE FRONTS SLIPPING DOWN THE STATES OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS LIKE ONE EVERY 3 DAYS THAT WILL KEEP ANY STORMS COMMING FROM THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM HITTING OUR EAST COAST HENSE KEEPING THEM ALL FISH STORMS LIKE THIS SEASON HAS BEEN SO FAR


Ana effected Puerto Rico and the Islands, Bill effected Heavily Bremuda and Canada, Claudette made landfall in the Panhandle of Florida, Danny effected parts of the mid-Atlantic states. Looks like your the one that needs to go back to bed, because we haven't seen a single 'fish storm' this year.
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213. Relix
Just report and ignore WrongCasual.
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Um are you sure it could form into a TD soon?Look at all the shear to the north of it.Will it die down soon?
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Quoting Weather456:


where do you live?


Sorry, Just saw your comment. I currently live in Ft. Lauderale, on one of the islands. Why do you ask? Where are you. Enjoy your blogs, by the way.
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Good morning all

Quoting futuremet:


In addition, the Bermuda high will strengthen. This will not be another Bill.


FM- I am having a hard time finding any model that shows the Bermuda/Azores high strengthening. It looks to me like the pattern is very similar to what it has been the past month. The Azores high is displaced well to the N and W while the Bermuda high is displaced to the N and E. Making it hard, if not impossible for them to bridge right now. That said, 94 would have to remain well to the S of the global models in order to not steer in to the weakness between the two highs. Am I missing something here?
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Quoting Grothar:


I do not disagree. Could face some wind shear ahead. But they might see something we do not, eh? Can not wait for the 8AM model which comes out as 7am or the 11am which comes out at 10AM which is information which is actually from 8:28 AM. (Did I get it right, lol)


Daylight time or standard?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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