Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting KoritheMan:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_tension




what are you doing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting katzanddogz:


What happen to StormW. I was visiting my kids and miss this.


he posted a pic of the geico lizard. i guess they considered that advertisement??? not really sure why they banned him for that, but that is what got him banned.
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Quoting WeatherRhino:


Are you kidding me? StormW got banned??? I come here and look for his post. Emotionally unstable? I think not!


What happen to StormW. I was visiting my kids and miss this.
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Quoting WunderFul:
BTW, in my neck of the woods, it just dropped into the 40s, and it isn't even midnight, still in August. What a wacky summer we've had up here. (If you're curious as to why a Midwesterner like me is so interested in the tropics, my little sis lives in Savannah, so I watch out for her a bit.)



awwww. that's sweet!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Alright folks...I'm off on another intercept. The Hurricane Van is loaded with my luggage and I'm headed out to the airport.

Luckily, I was able to upload two new videos to YouTube before I left town. Today was alot of hard work...and come tomorrow through next week, more of the same!

I'll update as often as I can. So will StormJunkie and PensacolaDoug. See you folks on the other side!

CycloneOz---Out...


have fun! stay safe!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Sounds like I missed all the fun.. can someone WU me and tell me what I missed?


Storm got banned for posting a pic of a lizard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, in my neck of the woods, it just dropped into the 40s, and it isn't even midnight, still in August. What a wacky summer we've had up here. (If you're curious as to why a Midwesterner like me is so interested in the tropics, my little sis lives in Savannah, so I watch out for her a bit.)
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
TS, she's got excellent outflow, doesn't she?


Just missing lower level Convergence to take off but, that is coming.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Good luck CycleOz!!!! Be safe...
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Quoting Patrap:
Having a NOAA Alert Weather Radio will keep one informed of the action 24/7 365.

Dont be caught unaware. Buy One..Buy 2 and give one to a friend.



My dad had one of these. Distinctly remember anticipating those Marine Forecasts. One of the best swells of my life happened while listening to one of these forecasts.

Thanks for the memories :)
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Sounds like I missed all the fun.. can someone WU me and tell me what I missed?
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Sorry about the pic of MB, it makes me laugh. Doesn't he look fully competent in my pic? Just another SE LA person giving a shout out to my hero. LOL

Thanks for the update on StormW
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2992. 7544
i bet they are alreday metting at the nhc if 94l does become a td at damx which it might they must be scratching their heads trying to figue out how the cone should be placed i know i would this is one of the trickest storms ive seen in a while track wise
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Quoting jipmg:


there is no MID level low, so no it has no chance, the othe rone htough to the North west, has a mid level low


There is an ULL to the NW of 94L.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2988. will40
Quoting JohnnyMandeville:
What happened with StormW, that caused him to be banned, and how do we correct this?
He was on his blogg a lil earlier. He will be back on here tomorrow nite
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2987. Patrap
Quoting JohnnyMandeville:
What happened with StormW, that caused him to be banned, and how do we correct this?


Jesus..still that frigging Dumb Micheal Brown?

LOL

Read up a lil back here and you'll be enlightened.

Man..that avatar gives me da willies..
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jipmg -- when you look at that WV loop with 94L & both ULLs, it looks like something from the surface of planet Jupiter. Pretty wild.
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What happened with StormW, that caused him to be banned, and how do we correct this?
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2984. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
Having a NOAA Alert Weather Radio will keep one informed of the action 24/7 365.

Dont be caught unaware. Buy One..Buy 2 and give one to a friend.


Got one next to my bed. Scared the hell out me a couple of time - but I was glad to get the warning.
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1900 thks for the help still learning
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Quoting Patrap:
As per Senior Chief StormW's wu -mail to me..


StormW has been Banned for 24 Hours for the GEICO Lizard pic,so he and I advise all to belay any off topic Humor Pic for the extended busy week ahead.

As you were Senior Chief StormW says,..He'll be back in 23.45 hrs,or in his Blog till then.

Just found this.
Not anything to bad then :o)
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2980. RTLSNK
Quoting WeatherStudent:
WeatherMan, do not make me reveal everything that you told me about drak not too long ago through facebok, ok? Do not force me, acere. anyways g'nite


Hmmm, sounds like a Troll, just Threatened another blogger in front of witnesses, yup, that should pretty well give Admin everything they need JFVster. (bud, sir) :)
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2979. jipmg
Quoting WunderFul:
Of interest, the latest satellite loop does show some convection forming in that ULL to the north of 94L. Perhaps moistening and lowering? Sure seems like there has been a lot of ULLs this year.


there is no MID level low, so no it has no chance, the othe rone htough to the North west, has a mid level low
2977. Patrap
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Folks, this will be the big one for the season, you can count on it. Here in Florida, I'm preparing for a chase, whether its here or up the East Coast.
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Quoting texascoastres:
the water spout on galveston just took out a police cars windows and a few rooftops reports of 45 mph winds in the area
Sound like a little more than a normal waterspout. Car windows can handle quite a bit of wind.
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good night guys, time to get some sleep, i am sure 94L will be there tomorrow morning...Laterz
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2973. flsky
Quoting CycloneOz:


I won't get cancelled until Dallas, if I do...


He's flying direct out of SoCal.
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Of interest, the latest satellite loop does show some convection forming in that ULL to the north of 94L. Perhaps moistening and lowering? Sure seems like there has been a lot of ULLs this year.
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2971. Patrap
Having a NOAA Alert Weather Radio will keep one informed of the action 24/7 365.

Dont be caught unaware. Buy One..Buy 2 and give one to a friend.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It will be golden if 94L pulls a Northie before hitting any Leewards or Windwards. Truly a feat
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2969. will40
If everyone who has knowledge of the situation with StormW would send a mail to Admin it wold maybe put a bug in there ear but it highly doubtfull. addy is WunderBlogAdmin
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I used that recipe at a party I had. It was a hit! It was great! Back to weather....do you agree with me that T.S. watches will be posted for portions of the Lesser Antilles sometime tomorrow?


Yep no question if 94L does well tonite which i fully expect to happen at during DMax
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting texascoastres:
the water spout on galveston just took out a police cars windows and a few rooftops reports of 45 mph winds in the area


SPC Storm Reports
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting TampaSpin:
StormW's bann was not as bad as mine was. He can post on his blog......heck i could not 3 weeks ago when i was banned for posting links to create traffic to my site and them claiming i was selling things on my site...I posted a link for Troll Juice..It was just mixed drink receipes that others had posted....LOL......What a joke that was. I respect what the Admin. has to do with his/her job. But, a little common sence is also needed.


I used that recipe at a party I had. It was a hit! It was great! Back to weather....do you agree with me that T.S. watches will be posted for portions of the Lesser Antilles sometime tomorrow?
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Quoting WunderFul:
without too much shear.




Just trying to help.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey I am out for now but even a nice guy like me got banned. If you can't take the heat get out of the kitchen, or as Patrap said fall on your sword. Its only 24 hours most of the time and in this case you can still read Stormw post but even more significant is, you caan still read the Doc's. Although you can't make brilliant commentary like this. Just wanted to get my dimes worth. Before I say Adieu or what ever.
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Quoting blaketheturtle:


I've lurked on this site for a couple of years, but hasn't StormW proved himself to be a little emotionally unstable? I can't imagine he's taking this too well.


Are you kidding me? StormW got banned??? I come here and look for his post. Emotionally unstable? I think not!
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the water spout on galveston just took out a police cars windows and a few rooftops reports of 45 mph winds in the area
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2961. Patrap
Quoting WunderFul:
Patrap -- I'm frankly surprised it hasn't blown up more. It looks to be in a fairly favorable moist air slot, with good overall symmetry, heading into favorable SSTs, without too much shear. I'm surprised the convection is so disorganized and dispersed. I would have expected some sort of CDO to have formed in conjunction with a COC by now. Just trying to understand why is is not.


Size.

It takes longer for these Larger Circs to consolidate and sping up all that angular Momentum.
Today 94L gained structure and Symmetry,..now she has to Stand up straight and build a Inner column.
It takes time,but we should have a TD come tom afternoon I spect
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---------> MISTAKE <---------------------
Banning Storm?
Buracrazy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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