Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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lol TAFB says 94L is a tropical storm:

AL, 94, 200908301145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1120N, 4580W, , 3, 45
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Quoting stormsurge39:
NW???


94L isnt moving NW. what some do on here is wrong. They pick and choose information that best suits them.
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356. jipmg
Quoting morningmisty:
Good Morning Everyone, What is going on in the Bay of Campeche (sp?) are those just thunderstorms or is something developing there?
Thanks!


its part of the ITCZ (Inter tropical convergence zone), something "CAN" spin up, who knows depends on how long that cemetric convection holds
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S
TEXAS COAST DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. HIGH PRES DRIFT S FORCED BY
FRONT REMAIN ALONG 25N THROUGH THU THEN MOVE N TO COASTAL WATERS
BY SUN NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE N BREEZE N OF FRONT WHILE GENTLE
W ONE FLOWS BETWEEN FRONT AND RIDGE. ALONG S PERIPHERY OF RIDGE
GENTLE BREEZE BECOME MODERATE NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE
EVENINGS.


CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY S OF 15N WITH STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KT
ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS BUILD TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS WAVE AXIS MOVES W OF 80W LATE TUE AND PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEW LOW PRES CENTER WILL FORM NEAR
COLOMBIA AND WINDS START AGAIN...BUT APPROACH OF SECOND EXISTING
LOW PRES MOVING NW THROUGH TROPICAL ATLC MIGHT DAMPER GRADIENT
ENOUGH TO CURTAIL INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W...
WITH DANNY OUT OF VIEW WIND AND SEAS RETURNING TO NORMAL AS ATLC
RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD...BUT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W WITH
EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB NEAR 11N44W LIKELY TO STIR UP
CONDITIONS AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS BRING WEAK LOW PRES CENTER INTO
N TROPICAL ATLC ALMOST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TAKES ITS TOLL THROUGH NEXT THREE DAYS...THEN TURN
IT MORE NW-N PASSING VERY CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY DENTING 65W. ANY
IMPACT ON SW N ATLC WATERS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BEYOND FORECAST
PERIOD.



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Wonder if that last AOI of Orca's isn't related to a Twave that's supposed to be passing through the Central / West Car today?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
2 things said earlier:

1. Patterns set at the beginning of the "high" part of the season often persist for weeks. Obvious examples: Jeanne and Frances 2004, Katrina and Rita 2005, etc.

2. Still a lot of uncertainty with regard to likelihood and rate of development with this system. The longer it takes to develop, IMO, the more worrisome it is likely to be, especially if it stays relatively south during that time.


Aside from the fact we hit our peak about 3 weeks ago, while the EPAC, doesn't have a peak it just sorta stays active.
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Quoting yamil20:
TCFA does not know where is moving, read carefully, at the begining its say is moving NW, then at the end it says this:AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


In the general direction of west. The system is moving to the WNW with a motion between WNW and NW expect over the next few days.
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Good Morning Everyone, What is going on in the Bay of Campeche (sp?) are those just thunderstorms or is something developing there?
Thanks!
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Figured 94L would make a comeback. Probably a tropical depression at 5.
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349. Relix
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Some of these models think the high builds back in after the islands:





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TCFA does not know where is moving, read carefully, at the begining its say is moving NW, then at the end it says this:AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2 things said earlier:

1. Patterns set at the beginning of the "high" part of the season often persist for weeks. Obvious examples: Jeanne and Frances 2004, Katrina and Rita 2005, etc.

2. Still a lot of uncertainty with regard to likelihood and rate of development with this system. The longer it takes to develop, IMO, the more worrisome it is likely to be, especially if it stays relatively south during that time.
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The long range pattern depicted by the Global Models beyond 4-5 days should not be trusted at this time due to an evolving change in the pattern near the West Coast.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Interesting.



I know - I think it is our next system.
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Quoting IKE:
THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
....

TCFA has it moving NW.
you can look and see its not moving NW!
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Quoting StormJunkie:


That's funny...lmao...Like I said, I just like to pretend I know what I am talking about and I did not stay at an HIE last night either. But it looks like it is just part of a old frontal boundary if I am not mistaken. It also does not look like it ever really becomes a closed low.


Yet true.

Ok, so aside from 94L and that huge blob near Mexico in the ATL, what is the next shot at a Tropical Cyclone?
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341. jipmg
Quoting IKE:
THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
....

TCFA has it moving NW.


satellite has it moving barely WNW
Quoting IKE:
THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
....

TCFA has it moving NW.
NW???
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Interesting.

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338. IKE
THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
....

TCFA has it moving NW.
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Quoting Weather456:
well that NW turn isnt going to be abrubt as some of the models are showing, thats the consensus.


456 you, i and many have pointed out several times that when we have a non developed system as is 94L, that models do a very poor job until they get to at least a depression. The models can hint at ideas but, when not developed they really are pure guess. AS WE DO!....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Tropical Update
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/5d/gfs_pres_5d.gif

Shows a weak Tropical Depression hitting the Eastern Seaboard - 94L anyone?


That forms on a front off the southeast that HPC has there for about 4 days. Cycle through each days forecast.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


So what do you think it is Mr Wunderground God?



That's funny...lmao...Like I said, I just like to pretend I know what I am talking about and I did not stay at an HIE last night either. But it looks like it is just part of a old frontal boundary if I am not mistaken. It also does not look like it ever really becomes a closed low.
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Models are not reliable more than they are when a system is not a TD or better. Ive read that and been told that time and time again. Also 94L LOOKS like its going due west right now???
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Tampa..read your blog..and that unspeakable name, are the long range model projecting a repeat?
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Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Thanks for bringing up the last AOI, Any idea what it is?
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 45.2W TO 15.1N 51.5W
WITHIN 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE 09Z SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS, HOWEVER, ARE DECREASING WEST
OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID THROUGH 311200Z.//
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Kevin is organising, I expect a slight strenghening.
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Jimena, looks like it will need more development on its NE quadrant before being upgraded to a Cat 5.

Based on the image, I'd say a top end Cat 4 is more likely.
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Quoting jipmg:


how does it go from the Yucatan to the bahamas?
I meant either/or. / means or.

IOW, depends on how far north it gets as to what else it hits besides the Antilles.
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325. P451
00CMC




00NGP




06HWRF



GFS and GFDL-barely care about the system. Not worth posting.
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I did this Tropical update last nite late. The really only difference is 94L as became better organized. Why, look at the Divergence map and that will tell you why. Last nite it was null of hardly anything and i stated that because of vorticity stacked so well at all levels the Convergencey and the Divergence from the Anticyclone to the NE and the ULL to the West has vented 94L very well.....Shear seems to be relaxing as it moves West also

Here is my LINK
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting CybrTeddy:
BTW guys, Jimena was Invest 93L in the Atlantic. Just thought that was interesting to see that 93L developed.
'S what I thought. Not surprised to see it become such a vigorous system. It was looking good as it approached Central America, and would have been named if it had had another day in the WCar, IMO.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Honestly i think it will come very close to the Northern Islands and be very close to Puerto Rico as a Tropical Storm. It then turns Due West with the High building and takes aim to the Bahamas......i just looked at some models and the part that looks scary is no deep trough until about 8-10 days is seen.....NOT GOOD!


THANK YOU! Lol. Been wondering about that since last night. :)
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Nope, not 94...GFS takes 94L in to the weakness and out to sea.


So what do you think it is Mr Wunderground God?

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Morning everyone. Jimena is looking very impressive. Also looking like we have more action in the Atlantic.

Circulation appears to be near 12N 47W.
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Quoting IKE:


As a tropical wave. Interesting.


Probably not based on the 8:00pm TWO. But it goes to show even if the system were to be that weak they still have north and east of the islands.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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well that NW turn isnt going to be abrubt as some of the models are showing, thats the consensus.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/5d/gfs_pres_5d.gif

Shows a weak Tropical Depression hitting the Eastern Seaboard - 94L anyone?


Nope, not 94...GFS takes 94L in to the weakness and out to sea.
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Quoting IKE:


As a tropical wave. Interesting.


...with low pressure
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Quoting Grothar:


Drak, What do you think of the NWS reports of a series of lows late next week which would move any systems out to sea? If 94L stays further south, this may not help. Do you place any credence on their outlook. I realize it is too early for a forecast, just and educated guess would suffice.


Looking at the long range models it is more likely that 94L would recurve out to sea than to impact the east coast. While the geopotential heights maybe be higher, they are higher behind an area of decreased geopotential heights. At the time, the models are showing one significant trough off the eastern seaboard.
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Quoting tornadofan:


I wholeheartingly second this statement.


third

Tampa, ok.
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TampaSpin, The motion for 94L on visible Sat looks like its going more W than WNW? What do you think?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti,

I have said it before, and will say it again I am sure. Your ability and willingness to share the detailed information that many of us are either too busy, stubborn, or lazy to go find on our own; and share it in a way that most can understand is one of the things that really makes this blogosphere a productive learning environment.


I wholeheartingly second this statement.
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Quoting Weather456:


what is your thinking regarding track?


Honestly i think it will come very close to the Northern Islands and be very close to Puerto Rico as a Tropical Storm. It then turns Due West with the High building and takes aim to the Bahamas......i just looked at some models and the part that looks scary is no deep trough until about 8-10 days is seen.....NOT GOOD!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
309. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
72hr position:



As a tropical wave. Interesting.
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http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/5d/gfs_pres_5d.gif

Shows a weak Tropical Depression hitting the Eastern Seaboard - 94L anyone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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