Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Thanks for the comments on BOC & that area. I learn more each season from you guys. I live in FL, so naturally I get concerned this time of yr
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Quoting canesrule1:
then there will not be a TD at 11.


Most likely no, but I can't say it couldn't happen.
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95L coming soon north of columbia,IMO.... didn't the namm and a couple other models develop a tropical low in this location around this time during the runs last weekend????
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Quoting Weather456:


yes I do agree with your thinking out 3 days but I'm still unsure of an east coast threat. But I was accused of "I dont want it go out to sea"


Bro that crap don't matter to me....LOL....i just tell it what i think...I don't know this...94L as a weak status stays further South....the stronger it gets the further North it goes as you already know....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
404. jipmg
Quoting Tazmanian:
could this be 95L and follow the same track has 93L did???



maybe move more north than 93L
403. IKE
12Z NAM......model is running.
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Quoting Drakoen:


While it is too early to say the long-range track, at this time 94L is more likely to recurve than to be an east coast threat.
I agree that it is too early to tell, by the time it reaches Puerto Rico we might have a better idea of where 94L will end up.
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I'm not a met. Obviousy. Lol. Just in case y'all couldn't tell. :) But here's my 2 cents. I don't see 94l being an east coast threat because of the trough or the ridge. I think it either goes out to sea or west. And Jemina is one scary a** storm! WOW!
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The drought in south Texas may soon be over. Jimena has a lot of moisture. Also, it seems like pre-Erika will keep moving more to the south. The storm keeps forming well on old boundaries left by Ana and Bill. If it gets much farther west, the trough of low pressure is going to miss it. It seems drawn more toward the energy of Jimena and the developing disturbance in the west Carribean. We definitely are heading into the peak now.
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could this be 95L and follow the same track has 93L did???

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I am pretty new on here and mostly clueless too, but wouldnt high shear to the north have a very small tendancy to have 94 keep heading W as it would try to keep momentum but avoid the shear as the least path of resistance? Or am I way off base here?

Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning nrti, good to see you as always!

That is a little over my head, I just like to pretend I know what I am talking about...And I didn't even stay in a HIE last night :)

Seriously though...What you are saying is that a deeper system would be kept more southerly because of the direction of the shear?
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Quoting extreme236:


Not that I saw.
then there will not be a TD at 11.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
94L will be a TD at the 11am,w/a track wnw......wait and you'll see!!!

If it continues to organize (like it has been) then there is a very good chance that it could be a Tropical Depression during the next couple hours.
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Quoting amd:
for some reason, i am intrigued with the convection just to the north of panama. It's under very little shear, as the ULL has now past far enough to its NW to stop inducing shear.

It may be an artifact of the semi-permanent Colombian heat low, but didn't 93L, which has turned into the monster called Jimena, have its beginnings just north of panama?


Plenty of storms both Pacific and Atlantic have origins in the region where the blob is. The environment in the area is a bit unfavorable for development but you never know.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You already know how much i respect your opinion.....do you agree with my anaylsis also then........I just don't see a trough in the forecast that picks up 94L. Now wether it develops are not is a different story but, if it does.....i see nothing on the horizon that takes this out to sea......JUST MY OPINION!


yes I do agree with your thinking out 3 days but I'm still unsure of an east coast threat. But I was accused of "I dont want it go out to sea"
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Quoting canesrule1:
So your opinion is that 94L is more likely to recurve than to be a possible east coast threat.


While it is too early to say the long-range track, at this time 94L is more likely to recurve than to be an east coast threat.
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Quoting canesrule1:
has there been a renumber?


Not that I saw.
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note different initialization points

NO model (or person) can definitively state a precise "direction of movement" until a COC can be defined and agreed upon. The system is broad and and any projected movement direction depends on the "points" one chooses to start and end with.
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Quoting Dakster:
Baha - What, are the basins playing "pass the storm across Central America"??
As a complete aside, folks, punctuation DOES matter! I had to read this 5 times before I figured out what Dax was asking.... LOL

Dax they do that most years. A large percentage of the named storms in the EPac originate with waves that have propogated Wward from East Africa.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
94L will be a TD at the 11am,w/a track wnw......wait and you'll see!!!
has there been a renumber?
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Quoting BenBIogger:
The reason the XTRP has 94L moving northwestward is because it initialized wrong, 94L is still moving WNW*.
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Quoting Grothar:
Drakoen

Don't want to put you on the spot, here. But how often to they apply the geopotential calculations in relation to an unknown factor that far ahead in relation to current pressures in a given area? Is the extrapolation of the mean used to forecast track or just possible pressures?


Your question is a little too wordy for me
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384. amd
for some reason, i am intrigued with the convection just to the north of panama. It's under very little shear, as the ULL has now past far enough to its NW to stop inducing shear.

It may be an artifact of the semi-permanent Colombian heat low, but didn't 93L, which has turned into the monster called Jimena, have its beginnings just north of panama?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
The arrow is alot far north than 94L is actually moving but I drew it anyway.

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94L will be a TD at the 11am,w/a track wnw......wait and you'll see!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Right now the likely hoOd of the system recurving out to sea is greater than the system potentially impacting the U.S.A
So your opinion is that 94L is more likely to recurve than to be a possible east coast threat.
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Quoting Weather456:


That means you dont want it go out to sea. I was accused of that earlier simply becuz I stated the fact. Even CrownWX which is run by a very skiilled persons said the samething.

The computer forecast guidance is not matching up with what is actually happening with 94L.

I strongly suspect that 94L will pass south of the 15 North/50 West benchmark. This benchmark is for the northeast Caribbean Islands. If a storm passes to the south of that benchmark, then the risk to the northeast Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico, increases dramatically.


You already know how much i respect your opinion.....do you agree with my anaylsis also then........I just don't see a trough in the forecast that picks up 94L. Now wether it develops are not is a different story but, if it does.....i see nothing on the horizon that takes this out to sea......JUST MY OPINION!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Dakster:
Thanks Ben... How did you do that?


Just remove the S.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif
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456, I'm not expecting a lot of Nward movement w/ this system as long as it remains below TD status. Even at TD status it's more likely to keep the WNW motion for a while. Better situation for the Antilles is that it blows up now. But - so far - no real signs of that, just the rather slow organization.
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Drakoen

Don't want to put you on the spot, here. But how often to they apply the geopotential calculations in relation to an unknown factor that far ahead in relation to current pressures in a given area? Is the extrapolation of the mean used to forecast track or just possible pressures?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Thought that BOC stuff would be due to off-flow from Jimena?



Wrong thing, we're talking about the perfect blob, extremley symetric (sp), puts the perfect storm of '95 to shame.

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Thanks Ben... How did you do that?
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Baha - What are the basins playing pass the storm across Central America??
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NW was probably a TYPO ERROR!!
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Its not a bad looking wave at all, in fact it is obvious it is already at least a depression if not a storm. As for the blob near the ITCZ I wouldn't be surprised if it decided to do something similar to Paloma but due to the environment not half as strong.
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Good morning!!!

We might have a TD by this afternoon.
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The SFWMD model page with the XTRP shows 94L moving NW... GO figure.

I tried to link to the graphic, but SFWMD won't allow it.. I guess the people that post the pic save it to photobucket or webshots???
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Quoting jipmg:


its part of the ITCZ (Inter tropical convergence zone), something "CAN" spin up, who knows depends on how long that cemetric convection holds
Thought that BOC stuff would be due to off-flow from Jimena?

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Quoting TampaSpin:


456 you, i and many have pointed out several times that when we have a non developed system as is 94L, that models do a very poor job until they get to at least a depression. The models can hint at ideas but, when not developed they really are pure guess. AS WE DO!....LOL


That means you dont want it go out to sea. I was accused of that earlier simply becuz I stated the fact. Even CrownWX which is run by a very skilled person said the same thing.

The computer forecast guidance is not matching up with what is actually happening with 94L.

I strongly suspect that 94L will pass south of the 15 North/50 West benchmark. This benchmark is for the northeast Caribbean Islands. If a storm passes to the south of that benchmark, then the risk to the northeast Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico, increases dramatically.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Dont see this being an eastcoast threat,the high based on models ive looked at is not that strong to drive anything on a westerly course towards the U.S.

Bermuda?


Right now the likely hoOd of the system recurving out to sea is greater than the system potentially impacting the U.S.A
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Kevin will be a 50kt storm next advisory based on that.
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Model steering comparison
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Quoting Weather456:


94L isnt moving NW. what some do on here is wrong. They pick and choose information that best suits them.
My 5 year old can look and see its not going NW!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


In the general direction of west. The system is moving to the WNW with a motion between WNW and NW expect over the next few days.


Dont see this being an eastcoast threat,the high based on models ive looked at is not that strong to drive anything on a westerly course towards the U.S.

Bermuda?
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Quoting extreme236:
lol TAFB says 94L is a tropical storm:

AL, 94, 200908301145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1120N, 4580W, , 3, 45


A bit optimistic, seeing as I think 94L may be giving birth.
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359. amd
hurricane jimena looks like an absolute monster in the eastern pacific. hope it moves to the west of Baja California.

As for 94L, it looks a little better this morning, but as I thought yesterday, if the storm continues to gain latitude, the heavy shear to the north will stop development. The GFS and GFDL may end up being correct with 94L.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
lol TAFB says 94L is a tropical storm:

AL, 94, 200908301145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1120N, 4580W, , 3, 45
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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