Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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458. 7544
hi all the caribiean blob could it become 95l and is it drifting nnw at this hour or will it go west
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423. scottsvb

You could go to his blog and get your answer:

Rob is the Research and Development Scientist for Weather Underground. He has a Ph.D. in meteorology from Penn State University.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Agreed, it is highly unlikely that it is related to Jimena.
????? Who actually suggested it was connected to Jimena?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Coffee Break!!!

BTW, it's been rainy / overcast here all morning. I stepped outside for a minute earlier this a.m. and discovered that the front seems to have passed us. DEFINITELY a cooler air mass is outside my door today. Feels almost like fall weather.....


Sigh. Still waiting here. :(

79 °F
Clear
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 75 °F
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Scott - Viscious analysis there... I can't argue with you on the merits, though.

Personally, I would not point them out in the open.
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>Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies.

This is great writing. Paying attention to the seas and skies implies that one is aware of the total environment. That the wave has intensified is correct because that is obvious on satellite.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Folks looking for an atlantic storm out of 94L might want to change their perspective.


What do you mean by this?
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
None of the models have it right this morning. Of course they are behind schedule of the wave. The "wave" has already reached 49W and is still around 11N.
The reason models are useless at this stage of the game is because it is not a TD or TS, when a system has a strong tight circulation models will usually have a good handle on it, but in our situation they don't. The model I would use for 94L in this stage in the game are the BAMM, BAMS, and BAMD.
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Coffee Break!!!

BTW, it's been rainy / overcast here all morning. I stepped outside for a minute earlier this a.m. and discovered that the front seems to have passed us. DEFINITELY a cooler air mass is outside my door today. Feels almost like fall weather.....
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Quoting extreme236:


I doubt it came from Jimena and its really not moving anywhere from what I can tell.


Agreed, it is highly unlikely that it is related to Jimena.
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Quoting TeeNut:
Just a casual visitor. One of my 300 south Florida News Net subscribers insists cyclonic storms from Africa turn northward due to the Gulf Stream. My totally untrained impression is they are affected by same forces that let Columbus sail west to Indies and then sail home always downwind. Comments on the real reason?
U are more correct than ur subscriber.... LOL. I suggest u encourage ur subcriber to google hurricane and read a bit their formation on Wikipedia or, even better, NHC's website. There's a lot of good easy to understand information out there....
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Any thoughts on the explosion in the carribean?


upper diffluence sw of the upper low spinning over the NW Caribbean. The moisture is being aided at the low levels by fresh easterlies converging into the broad area low pressure of the ITCZ/Colombian low.
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Folks looking for an atlantic storm out of 94L might want to change their perspective.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.


Ok I dont mean to be hateful here.. but this is the 2nd time that the fill-in blogger said some wunderground (non-meteorologist in real life) talk.

For 1.. we dont say a wave has intensified...the wave has increased! (yeah there is a difference in terms we use)

2... People in the Lessar Antilles should just check back every 6 hrs or listen to their local news/weather broadcasts.. (not watch the skies)

3... Lbar and Bamm models tropical suite models are not more easterly..but more westerly... I guess he just was typing too fast before thinking there. (okay we all make mistakes)

4. We dont say WNW-W .. we say W-WNW and the GFS is probably picking up the midlevel vortex with the LLC moving west..but its unclear yet as the models have not done well so far.

OK alot of errors on this posting. Looks like someone from these forums he chose to blog while hes gone and he said hes a doctor.. but in Meteorology? or Climateology or something else? I dont mean to be harsh...probably just not in Meteorology..but probably in Climateology or something else.






I think he did that for the less educated people that come and check Dr. Masters posts and then leave (not the bloggers) people might not understand what He is talking about.
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JadeinAntigua,

Anguilla

The NHC is issuing updates on storm 94L, forming 950 miles to our east, and giving it a better than 50% chance of development. Several models call

for it to travel to our north with no problems, and others to cross the northern islands between Guadeloupe and Anguilla. It should be noted that the models

calling for it to go to our north have predicted that it would have already made a sharp turn to the north %u2013 which has not happened. It is currently traveling

WNW at 15 mph. Based on this fact, we need to watch this storm. Good news it is 950 miles to the east traveling at 15 mph, putting it about 3 days away.

It would need to develop really quickly to be a serious threat %u2013 which is not expected. BUT%u2026a few models call for it to be a hurricane in 3 %u2013 4 days.

In any event, expect tropical depression Erika by sometime Monday.
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scottsvb,

I was wondering the same thing, but thought no one is perfect since I make some stupid mistakes too.
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Any thoughts on the explosion in the carribean?
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None of the models have it right this morning. Of course they are behind schedule of the wave. The "wave" has already reached 49W and is still around 11N.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.


Ok I dont mean to be hateful here.. but this is the 2nd time that the fill-in blogger said some wunderground (non-meteorologist in real life) talk.

For 1.. we dont say a wave has intensified...the wave has increased! (yeah there is a difference in terms we use)

2... People in the Lessar Antilles should just check back every 6 hrs or listen to their local news/weather broadcasts.. (not watch the skies)

3... Lbar and Bamm models tropical suite models are not more easterly..but more westerly... I guess he just was typing too fast before thinking there. (okay we all make mistakes)

4. We dont say WNW-W .. we say W-WNW and the GFS is probably picking up the midlevel vortex with the LLC moving west..but its unclear yet as the models have not done well so far.

OK alot of errors on this posting. Looks like someone from these forums he chose to blog while hes gone and he said hes a doctor.. but in Meteorology? or Climateology or something else? I dont mean to be harsh...probably just not in Meteorology..but probably in Climateology or something else.



Carver does a non-tropical blog, right? Also, would be interesting to know which time zone he's blogging from. I don't know if I'd be so coherent myself if I was putting up that blog at 4:30 a.m. Central..... LOL

But some interesting points noted.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


It is just a blob of convection that disconnected from the hurricane in the Pacific. It is already loosing it's punch, and moving into hostile conditions.


I doubt it came from Jimena and its really not moving anywhere from what I can tell.
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Once 94L is named/renumbered then we should get a better idea of where it is going. So by the next update it will likely become a tropical cyclone and the blob by Panama will likely become an invest.
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.
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Here you can see 94L strengthening rapidly in the past several hours convection and structural wise, here is the latest visible image:

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Quoting Weather456:


remember the advisory that came out 12:30 am, almost 90 minutes after the 11PM schedule. lol


Yup exactly, although that was renumbered at 00Z but still, good point.
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Jimena is quite an impressive storm and I wouldn't be surprised if it is stronger than the official NHC advisory. It's also not often you see a storm keep such a tiny eye for such an extended period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to cat5. There have been other cat5's in that region of the east Pacific before.
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Quoting JadeInAntigua:


Thanks for that Weather456. I always look forward to hearing your thoughts on these systems as I know you have a vested interest in our region and will tell it as you truly see it.



A rather dull perpestive

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12z NAM @ 60 hrs....

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Morning again...

Hehe... appears NAM 12Z has trended S as 94L enters its domain. The rest of the 12Z runs should be interesting... but I will expect diverging tracks as typical from these early stages.
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Just a casual visitor. One of my 300 south Florida News Net subscribers insists cyclonic storms from Africa turn northward due to the Gulf Stream. My totally untrained impression is they are affected by same forces that let Columbus sail west to Indies and then sail home always downwind. Comments on the real reason?
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Quoting Weather456:
Models did poorly with 94L, likely becuz it remained very broad and weak over the past day or two. as it tightens up, they should have a better handle.


exactly!
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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.


Ok I dont mean to be hateful here.. but this is the 2nd time that the fill-in blogger said some wunderground (non-meteorologist in real life) talk.

For 1.. we dont say a wave has intensified...the wave has increased! (yeah there is a difference in terms we use)

2... People in the Lessar Antilles should just check back every 6 hrs or listen to their local news/weather broadcasts.. (not watch the skies)

3... Lbar and Bamm models tropical suite models are not more easterly..but more westerly... I guess he just was typing too fast before thinking there. (okay we all make mistakes)

4. We dont say WNW-W .. we say W-WNW and the GFS is probably picking up the midlevel vortex with the LLC moving west..but its unclear yet as the models have not done well so far.

OK alot of errors on this posting. Looks like someone from these forums he chose to blog while hes gone and he said hes a doctor.. but in Meteorology? or Climateology or something else? I dont mean to be harsh...probably just not in Meteorology..but probably in Climateology or something else.



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Quoting P451:


Agreed. Models never do well without a well defined COC. Even then they seem to need a few runs on that COC before they come into line.

These are just a suggestion. I can see why they want to go northward (that feature pushing southward towards PR for one) but not why they want it to happen - immediately.

Throughout their runs they've always had it heading WNW to NW immediately. Well, it hasn't done that at all in it's lifespan.

I does appear to have a general WNW movement this morning though.
I don't understand why they would forecast that immediate Nerly turn, given climatology. One would think the instinct would be to propagate W. I guess this is one area of forecasting which needs some further refining.
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Quoting Weather456:


That means you dont want it go out to sea. I was accused of that earlier simply becuz I stated the fact. Even CrownWX which is run by a very skilled person said the same thing.

The computer forecast guidance is not matching up with what is actually happening with 94L.

I strongly suspect that 94L will pass south of the 15 North/50 West benchmark. This benchmark is for the northeast Caribbean Islands. If a storm passes to the south of that benchmark, then the risk to the northeast Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico, increases dramatically.


Thanks for that Weather456. I always look forward to hearing your thoughts on these systems as I know you have a vested interest in our region and will tell it as you truly see it.
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.
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Models did poorly with 94L, likely becuz it remained very broad and weak over the past day or two. as it tightens up, they should have a better handle.
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Morning everyone!

I have a new update out on 94L as well as Jimena...

8/30 UPDATE - 94L A Major Threat to the Antilles; Jimena Churning in the Pacific

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Quoting extreme236:


Most likely no, but I can't say it couldn't happen.


remember the advisory that came out 12:30 am, almost 90 minutes after the 11PM schedule. lol
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Quoting P451:


Just ignore those who say such things. Reporting on what you think it may do versus what you want it to do are two separate things. You don't need to disclaimer yourself any time you feel a system might head towards land.


best words I've heard all day
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Quoting extreme236:


Most likely no, but I can't say it couldn't happen.
true
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Wrong thing, we're talking about the perfect blob, extremley symetric (sp), puts the perfect storm of '95 to shame.

Ips, I think morningmisty did ask about the BOC, though.
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Quoting canesrule1:
I agree that it is too early to tell, by the time it reaches Puerto Rico we might have a better idea of where 94L will end up.


I agree with you! Hopefully a Trough can be seen on the Horizon by then.....LETS HOPE ANYWAY!
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Aside from the fact we hit our peak about 3 weeks ago, while the EPAC, doesn't have a peak it just sorta stays active.
Pic of season Sept. 10th, in the atlantic.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
could this be 95L and follow the same track has 93L did???

Possibly but doubt it, for some reason I think this might move eastward over the Caribbean, just my gut feeling for some reason.
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Thanks for the comments on BOC & that area. I learn more each season from you guys. I live in FL, so naturally I get concerned this time of yr
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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