Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Here in this map,

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html

you can see that it has moved wnw in the last 24 hours
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Hey guys, You all know I never say anything disparaging about anyone, but if you would all permit me to make this one little barb.

I just googled this morning's update on the translator website and this was the result.

?????????????
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Quoting Dakster:


Do me a favor... Let me know if you move to Miami. I want to leave before one hits... I know someone else that moves just before something bad happens, I asked her to send me a note when she plans on leaving so I can have some warning.

So if I get a note from you that you are coming and one from her that she is leaving - I'm outta here.


Lol. Ok I'll warn ya. :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The blob in the Caribbean is just Divergence from the ULL to its North...it will die out in a few hours on go onshore soon anyways....
Quoting extreme236:


Its not from Jimena. And it doesnt look like its going anywhere too fast.
if it is from Jimena or not, it will be dying down because it is just a flare-up from an ULL to its north, and it will be moving ashore in a matter of several hours.
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Latest satelite wide view looks as though 94L may be starting nw heading as opposed to it's past wnw. Maybe even nnw.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Thank you kindly.
no prob
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Quoting canesrule1:
true, it is just a flare of the ITCZ and Jimena, so really no development is possible, imo.


The blob in the Caribbean is just Divergence from the ULL to its North...it will die out in a few hours and go onshore soon anyways....
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Quoting canesrule1:
true, it is just a flare of the ITCZ and Jimena, so really no development is possible, imo.


Its not from Jimena. And it doesnt look like its going anywhere too fast.
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Quoting amd:
Hurricane Jimena is now a cat 4 with 135 mph winds. Supposed to peak out on Tuesday with winds of 145 mph.

Hopefully recon heads out to the pacific to determine it's true intensity.

Looking very intense.

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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Why the NHC keeps on saying 94L is moving WNW when I can see with my own dogone eyes on visible that it is moving due West? Am I missing something here? I mean I am no Troll or like eating Crows here, and I am sure the models will prove right sooner or later, but I just do not see any movememnt to the WNW and the Islands need to know this information. I am starting to think it will cross the island to the Caribean Sea. I'll eat the crow later. I'll fire the grill soon just send me the Crow guys/Gals.....


I was a westcaster, too, but it does appear to have moved about 2 degrees north in the past 24 hours.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh! No Problem. My bad. I guess I should say. :) SE TX/LA border. And "she" is not homeless anymore. Thanks Cane. Lol. Afraid if I change the name Mother Nature will send me another hurricane. Little superstitious here. Everytime I settle in somewhere and paint a wall here comes another one. Lol.


Do me a favor... Let me know if you move to Miami. I want to leave before one hits... I know someone else that moves just before something bad happens, I asked her to send me a note when she plans on leaving so I can have some warning.

So if I get a note from you that you are coming and one from her that she is leaving - I'm outta here.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
Its time to be productive for the Rest of the day.....wife is yelling to get off the dam computer......LOL....here is all the current maps one needs to follow 94L as conditions with 94L should improve......

Everyone have a good day and NO FIGHTING KIDS! Try some troll juice today also.....it might help.....the formula is on my site.....LOL
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I'm keeping an eye on 94L, but I'm also just noticing the area just coming off of South/Central America into the caribbean sea. That's a very worrisome area as it's definitely a spot for development. Anyone have any ideas on that? Thanks
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Quoting TerraNova:
Someone asked about the burst of convection in the SW Caribbean N of Panama; it looks to me like an interaction between an upper level low and an anticyclonic flow to the south, there may also be energy in there from the approaching tropical wave. Anything in this area will likely come ashore before development can occur.
true, it is just a flare of the ITCZ and Jimena, so really no development is possible, imo.
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Quoting canesrule1:
Here u go:

Link

Thank you kindly.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Pretty unfavorable upper conditions just to the north of 94L so it will have to stay south if it wants a chance to intensify.Once again in my view i think 94L should stay north of the islands as a weakness to its north should induce a northerly component to its motion.Just dont see a ridge there to keep 94 on westerly course towards the eastcoast.



I do not see a ridge either at this time.o
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492. amd
Hurricane Jimena is now a cat 4 with 135 mph winds. Supposed to peak out on Tuesday with winds of 145 mph.

Hopefully recon heads out to the pacific to determine it's true intensity.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
Looks like the COC is forming around 12N 48W.
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Quoting raggpr:
You are right, where do you think 94L will go? Into the Carribean, or it will pass over Northern Islands?
I believe it will pass just north of the islands.
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Pretty unfavorable upper conditions just to the north of 94L so it will have to stay south if it wants a chance to intensify.Once again in my view i think 94L should stay north of the islands as a weakness to its north should induce a northerly component to its motion in time.Just dont see a ridge there to keep 94 on westerly course towards the eastcoast.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
Someone asked about the burst of convection in the SW Caribbean N of Panama; it looks to me like an interaction between an upper level low and an anticyclonic flow to the south, there may also be energy in there from the approaching tropical wave. Anything in this area will likely come ashore before development can occur.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Canesrule the AntiCyclone to its north last nite was to its NE. Its seems to be moving and building ahead of 94L. Just another reason for its improvement.
Yes the anticyclone should shield it from the intense shear, so yes i do agree with u.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Canes, do you have a link for the T number? I can't find mine. TIA
Here u go:

Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thats 3 too 6hrs old waiting for the new one
i know it is old.
Quoting Relix:


I must point it out again this is just a guesstimate on where the center is, Convection seems to be moving WNW. Is it moving NW? Well I'll leave that to the experts. Right now I am going to keep a watchful eye on this!
94L is still moving WNW at about 15-18mph.
Quoting extreme236:


The anticyclone should move in tandem with it.
agreed.
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Quoting canesrule1:
94L currently finding 0 to 10 knot shear but if shear values persist it might encounter 40 to 50 knot shear, surely tearing it apart.


Canes, do you have a link for the T number? I can't find mine. TIA
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You are right, where do you think 94L will go? Into the Carribean, or it will pass over Northern Islands?
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482. IKE
12Z NAM on the end of it's run at 84 hours....




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Quoting canesrule1:
94L currently finding 0 to 10 knot shear but if shear values persist it might encounter 40 to 50 knot shear, surely tearing it apart.



Canesrule the AntiCyclone to its north last nite was to its NE. Its seems to be moving and building ahead of 94L. Just another reason for its improvement.
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You're welcome Tazmanian. Is it vicious to say the hurricane is going to stay south of the model tracks. I guess climatology would lean toward a midpoint in the tracks.
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Why the NHC keeps on saying 94L is moving WNW when I can see with my own dogone eyes on visible that it is moving due West? Am I missing something here? I mean I am no Troll or like eating Crows here, and I am sure the models will prove right sooner or later, but I just do not see any movememnt to the WNW and the Islands need to know this information. I am starting to think it will cross the island to the Caribean Sea. I'll eat the crow later. I'll fire the grill soon just send me the Crow guys/Gals.....
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Good morning. From yellow crayon to red. D-max must have had a decent effect on 94L. Models are a little worrisome this AM.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Location, homeless? (forgetful me, over here)


Oh! No Problem. My bad. I guess I should say. :) SE TX/LA border. And "she" is not homeless anymore. Thanks Cane. Lol. Afraid if I change the name Mother Nature will send me another hurricane. Little superstitious here. Everytime I settle in somewhere and paint a wall here comes another one. Lol.
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He wrote it so the kids can read it!
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Jimena
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Quoting Dakster:
Canesrule1 - You know he can't be in Miami... It is 90+ here...
yup, check it out here:

Miami, Florida
Updated: 0 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
86.9 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 67 °F
Wind: 10.7 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 12.9 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 21 ft
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Quoting canesrule1:
94L currently finding 0 to 10 knot shear but if shear values persist it might encounter 40 to 50 knot shear, surely tearing it apart.



The anticyclone should move in tandem with it.
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472. jipmg
Quoting raggpr:
I personally believe that 94L will be a TD tonight at 11 p.m., With DMax this storm should be able to organize a closed center of circulation. About the intensity I will say that it will stay as a Tropical Storm until it reaches Northern islands. I think It will directly affect US Virgin Islands but it will miss PR a few hundreds miles north. Remember people that with Bill models were predecting a NW track and it took some time to see that movement, we all including me were saying "it is moving westard", but all of a sudden the NWesternly track took place. Lets see what happens I hope it doesn't come near anyone. I live in PR and I dont want to see another storm here. Good Morning


Difference is more than half the models take it WNW not NNW
471. Relix
Quoting canesrule1:
Latest Dvorak had 94L moving NW from the last update, and it had it as a TD.

30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L


I must point it out again this is just a guesstimate on where the center is, Convection seems to be moving WNW. Is it moving NW? Well I'll leave that to the experts. Right now I am going to keep a watchful eye on this!
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Quoting canesrule1:
Latest Dvorak had 94L moving NW from the last update, and it had it as a TD.

30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L



thats 3 too 6hrs old waiting for the new one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting TeeNut:
Just a casual visitor. One of my 300 south Florida News Net subscribers insists cyclonic storms from Africa turn northward due to the Gulf Stream. My totally untrained impression is they are affected by same forces that let Columbus sail west to Indies and then sail home always downwind. Comments on the real reason?


Lets hope you are correct. I would say that group is as funny as a Canadian telling a US group that social health care is very good...LMAO
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Canesrule1 - You know he can't be in Miami... It is 90+ here...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
I personally believe that 94L will be a TD tonight at 11 p.m., With DMax this storm should be able to organize a closed center of circulation. About the intensity I will say that it will stay as a Tropical Storm until it reaches Northern islands. I think It will directly affect US Virgin Islands but it will miss PR a few hundreds miles north. Remember people that with Bill models were predecting a NW track and it took some time to see that movement, we all including me were saying "it is moving westard", but all of a sudden the NWesternly track took place. Lets see what happens I hope it doesn't come near anyone. I live in PR and I dont want to see another storm here. Good Morning
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94L currently finding 0 to 10 knot shear but if shear values persist it might encounter 40 to 50 knot shear, surely tearing it apart.

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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
red


*claps*

Jason, I owe you an apology.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Location, homeless? (forgetful me, over here)
LMAO, i hope he is not homeless.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sigh. Still waiting here. :(

79 °F
Clear
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Location, homeless? (forgetful me, over here)
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Latest Dvorak had 94L moving NW from the last update, and it had it as a TD.

30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L
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IMO Dr. Rob wrote the blog so the everyday reader would understand it. Which I appreciate. :)
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
>Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies.

This is great writing. Paying attention to the seas and skies implies that one is aware of the total environment. That the wave has intensified is correct because that is obvious on satellite.




thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting TeeNut:
Just a casual visitor. One of my 300 south Florida News Net subscribers insists cyclonic storms from Africa turn northward due to the Gulf Stream. My totally untrained impression is they are affected by same forces that let Columbus sail west to Indies and then sail home always downwind. Comments on the real reason?


?? That hurt my head right there.

1) Ocean currents dont steer tropical cyclones. One is oceanic and one is atmopsheric, impossible.

2)Lets say they did, the Gulf Stream is located thousand of miles from Africa and its related disturbances.

3) tropical waves do move west in the same tradewinds that Columbus sailed in. remember Columbus discovered the tradewinds.

4) Columbus also discovered the westerlies which he sailed back to Europe in.

5) tropical waves are very shallow system but when they develop they become deep enough to be steered out to sea, atleast some of them do.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
458. 7544
hi all the caribiean blob could it become 95l and is it drifting nnw at this hour or will it go west
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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