Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting canesrule1:
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



K.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
557. Relix
I am tired. Go whatever direction you please 94L! =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722


Will CycloneOz be taking a trip to Baja?
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Surface analysis has it moving between WNW and NW
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NWS, PR

11AM AST

THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
553. jipmg
Quoting cirrocumulus:
94L is spinning up quite different every 30 minutes on the floater. The visible satellite makes it appear farther east at 48W and 12N, while the infrared makes it show the colder cloud tops move southwest closer to the ITCZ and keeps the main storms near 49W and 11N.


anti cylcone
Quoting mobilegirl81:
THis is looking like a classic Carribean-Gulf type of storm in the making. Gustav, Frederic, Camille, Ivan, Georges, etc.

Agree
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Quoting JRRP:

oh, ok, lol
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Is it?

Source please.
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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549. JRRP
Quoting canesrule1:
huh, lol

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Ppl, the Bay of Campeche is the southern part of the GULF OF MEXICO. It is not the site of this morning's new "blob" / AOI. IIRC, that MAY be the Gulf of Columbia or Panama, if it has a name of its own.....
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94L is spinning up quite different every 30 minutes on the floater. The visible satellite makes it appear farther east at 48W and 12N, while the infrared makes it show the colder cloud tops move southwest closer to the ITCZ and keeps the main storms near 49W and 11N.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jurakantaino:
To me is very simple is moving WNW,as stated by the NHC with little wobbles here and there to the north or to the west. Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico should be watching this thing carefully, do to climatology. 90% of the storms that affect our region are in the first 15 days of September.Quoting jurakantaino:
To me is very simple is moving WNW,as stated by the NHC with little wobbles here and there to the north or to the west. Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico should be watching this thing carefully, do to climatology. 90% of the storms that affect our region are in the first 15 days of September.


That is true!
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Ohhhhh let's hope not....but I do agree with you. It is too far south for my liking.
doubt it will venture of to the Caribbean, this will most likely pass over or just north of the northern Antilles, imo.
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12Z Surface Analysis


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Quoting amd:
Hurricane Jimena is now a cat 4 with 135 mph winds. Supposed to peak out on Tuesday with winds of 145 mph.

Hopefully recon heads out to the pacific to determine it's true intensity.



Is it?

Source please.
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Like my post stated. . . wide view Atlantic visual, but I of course, I could be wrong. Just appears to me to be moving more nw.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, u have to leave an unpainted wall somewhere.... lol
The front I'm talking abt. is the one that just came off the E coast. It was humid as hades out yesterday, but temps and humidity seem to have moderated slightly this a.m. in Nassau, Bahamas.....


We're supposed to get the tail end of that front. I think they said it would need some kind of secondary front to push it past us. Hope it gets it. Lower humidity would be heaven! :)
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Quoting raggpr:


I think maybe like 150 miles north of PR
me too, possibly affecting Turks and Caicos. IMO
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Quoting yonzabam:


I was a westcaster, too, but it does appear to have moved about 2 degrees north in the past 24 hours.
To me is very simple is moving WNW,as stated by the NHC with little wobbles here and there to the north or to the west. Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico should be watching this thing carefully, do to climatology. 90% of the storms that affect our region are in the first 15 days of September.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mobilegirl81:
THis is looking like a classic Carribean-Gulf type of storm in the making. Gustav, Frederic, Camille, Ivan, Georges, etc.

Ohhhhh let's hope not....but I do agree with you. It is too far south for my liking.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
Quoting jipmg:


id like to know what your watching


Yeah I think he was watching cartoons..
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Quoting JRRP:

+2


I think maybe like 150 miles north of PR
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Quoting Grothar:


Serious little blob in the Bay. Does 94L looked a little elongated?

May be just enough to moisten the environment for 94L
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I have to admit 94L is looking better. Or maybe that's just because I have drunk some coffee and can now actually SEE...... lol
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Offshore Waters Forecast


.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
MON THROUGH TUE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE. A 1007
MB LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N46W WILL SLOWLY
MOVE W-NW AROUND 10 KT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 14N51W MON MORNING
AND NEAR 15N53W TUE MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED INTO THU.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Why the NHC keeps on saying 94L is moving WNW when I can see with my own dogone eyes on visible that it is moving due West? Am I missing something here? I mean I am no Troll or like eating Crows here, and I am sure the models will prove right sooner or later, but I just do not see any movememnt to the WNW and the Islands need to know this information. I am starting to think it will cross the island to the Caribean Sea. I'll eat the crow later. I'll fire the grill soon just send me the Crow guys/Gals.....

I for one am watching it from the greater Antilles.
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Quoting canesrule1:
94L is moving WWWWWWWWWWWWWWNW, imo. lol


It's moving in a direction that is not east, south, or due north.
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am forcasting JIMENA too be a vary strong cat 4 with winds of 150mph may be cat 5 at the next nhc update
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Quoting JRRP:

+2
huh, lol
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528. JRRP
Quoting canesrule1:
I believe it will pass just north of the islands.

2
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Quoting raggpr:
I will say TD by tonight at 11 p.m.
i agree.
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THis is looking like a classic Carribean-Gulf type of storm in the making. Gustav, Frederic, Camille, Ivan, Georges, etc.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I just notice a big blow up of convection off Colombia & Panama in the SW Caribbean, what the heck is that?


Convection on the outer edge of an ULL, development is unlikely.
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524. jipmg
Quoting wcoastfl:
Latest satelite wide view looks as though 94L may be starting nw heading as opposed to it's past wnw. Maybe even nnw.


id like to know what your watching
94L is moving WWWWWWWWWWWWWWNW, imo. lol
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The best thing regarding 94L watch, wait and see what scenario plays out, another 24-36 hours a better picture of the most likely scenario should start to unfold, until then all bets are off.
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Really shows far south 94L is

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Serious little blob in the Bay. Does 94L looked a little elongated?
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Good Morning folks...i am sorry but the Meteorologists in Trinidad SUCK !!! They aren't issuing anything about 94L...steups...
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I will say TD by tonight at 11 p.m.
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Good outflow over the top and bottom of 94L. Rolling motion continues and wrapping into a solid CDO and it's game on/W Erika****
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I just notice a big blow up of convection off Colombia & Panama in the SW Caribbean, what the heck is that?
It is just divergence from the ULL to its north, it will quickly die down, and encounter land, it is nothing to worry about.
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Quoting Weather456:
Likely will become a depression later tonight or early Monday



I agree.
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One thing is certain about the strength and movement. Does not look like it will pull up in time due to the lack of strength.
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I just notice a big blow up of convection off Colombia & Panama in the SW Caribbean, what the heck is that?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh! No Problem. My bad. I guess I should say. :) SE TX/LA border. And "she" is not homeless anymore. Thanks Cane. Lol. Afraid if I change the name Mother Nature will send me another hurricane. Little superstitious here. Everytime I settle in somewhere and paint a wall here comes another one. Lol.
Hey, u have to leave an unpainted wall somewhere.... lol
The front I'm talking abt. is the one that just came off the E coast. It was humid as hades out yesterday, but temps and humidity seem to have moderated slightly this a.m. in Nassau, Bahamas.....
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Quoting Weather456:
Likely will become a depression later tonight or early Monday

i agree.
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Link
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Likely will become a depression later tonight or early Monday

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Here in this map,

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html

you can see that it has moved wnw in the last 24 hours
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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