Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Looks like Jimena will be the first Cat 5 of the year.
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The discussion of the nws of puerto rico was very early in the morning /ISSUED 429 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2009/ 7 hours ago.
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is it me or dos , Jimena have olny a 2 to 4 mile wide eye man that is small
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Quoting WxLogic:


Hehe... indeed. Bay Of Campeche (BOC) is not to be confused with the South-West (SW) Carib. Sea. There's no name given to it, like the BOC.


I do believe the inner part is often referred to as the Gulf of Honduras by the locals. I may be wrong. I do not know if that is official. But it most definitely is the SW Caribbean.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening one and all.
Just dropped in to say G'Day.
Not feeling the best due to a passing in the family.
Hurricane Jimena sure looks nasty.
94L is getting its act together, will need to be closely watched.
Cheers AussieStorm
I am sorry to hear that Aussie. Condolences on your loss
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603. eye
Yeah, Drak knows more than the professionals....ready for your sophmore year in HS Drak?
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Quoting mac3821:
What is an Anticyclone? I have the defenition but I can't say I understand it. Can someone put it in laymans terms for me?
That one threw me at first. I figured and ANTIcyclone must be AGAINST a cylcone developing. If you are ANTI-war, then you are against it right?.
I could not have been more wrong. In this case think of anti as being opposite. An anticyclone rotates in the opposite way that a cyclone does. When positioned above a cyclone, then it provides venting.

Do I have this right, folks?
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The blob is looking better organized, from an hour ago.
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Good morning everyone! Been working throughout the morning to update the CCHS Weather Center site with updated forecasts for South, Central, and Northern Florida as well as the latest info on Invest 94L and the tropics. On the Atlantic Hurricane Watch page, I will be issuing "Special Storm Analysis" in a graphic form to explain whats currently happening with a system out there. Below you will find the Graphical Tropical Update and Special Storm Analysis from the page.

CCHS Weather Center Graphical Tropical Update


CCHS Weather Center Special Storm Analysis for Invest 94L


Let me know what you all think about the Special Storm Analysis so that I can determine whether or not I should make this a new permanent feature on the site.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening one and all.
Just dropped in to say G'Day.
Not feeling the best due to a passing in the family.
Hurricane Jimena sure looks nasty.
94L is getting its act together, will need to be closely watched.
Cheers AussieStorm


Good evening Aussie. And I'm sorry to hear about the passing of your family member. My condolences.
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Quoting extreme236:


Not really.



so tru
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Aussie.. my condolences and prayers mate, I'm sorry to hear this news.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening one and all.
Just dropped in to say G'Day.
Not feeling the best due to a passing in the family.
Hurricane Jimena sure looks nasty.
94L is getting its act together, will need to be closely watched.
Cheers AussieStorm

Sorry to hear of your loss Aussie.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Drakoen, on visible I'm seeing 11.2N and 48W. While the latest floater shows the highest cloud tops at 10.5N and 50.8W and the rest at 11N and 49W.
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I was stupidly hoping that all of this years storms would follow Bill's path. Silly me.

The models (yes, it's early, I know, but...) show it going for eastern half of the Florida peninsula. Is that a fair assessment for planning purposes towards next weekend?
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If your COC are correct, then that would change my perspective about it's movement. With that in mind, it looks as though 94 is still headed mostly west.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening one and all.
Just dropped in to say G'Day.
Not feeling the best due to a passing in the family.
Hurricane Jimena sure looks nasty.
94L is getting its act together, will need to be closely watched.
Cheers AussieStorm

Sorry for your loss.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Position not accurate at this time.


That position is old.
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589. Relix
Quoting JRRP:

45w?


I said NWS of PR, not me =P! I know they are incorrect though!

@Drakoen: Exactly haha.
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Looks like Kevin and Jimena may encounter fujiwara effect !
Earlier this a.m. they were thinking Kevin might fizzle before it gets all the way to Jimena's location.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
THis is looking like a classic Carribean-Gulf type of storm in the making. Gustav, Frederic, Camille, Ivan, Georges, etc.
A little bit like hurricane Allen too,I certainly hope that never happens.The winds in the Dry Tortugas were gusting to 90 knots and that storm was a couple hundred miles away.
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Quoting mac3821:
What is an Anticyclone? I have the defenition but I can't say I understand it. Can someone put it in laymans terms for me?


An anticyclone (also called an upper level high) is a clockwise flow that can help a system develop by providing ventilation, if located in the right place. An anticyclone suspended right over a developing system will assist it, as is the case with 94L.
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Quoting Relix:


NWS of Puerto Rico has it at:
11.2N AND 45.1W


Position not accurate at this time.
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584. JRRP
Quoting Relix:


NWS of Puerto Rico has it at:
11.2N AND 45.1W

45w?
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Good Evening one and all.
Just dropped in to say G'Day.
Not feeling the best due to a passing in the family.
Hurricane Jimena sure looks nasty.
94L is getting its act together, will need to be closely watched.
Cheers AussieStorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mac3821:
What is an Anticyclone? I have the defenition but I can't say I understand it. Can someone put it in laymans terms for me?
An anticyclone is a thing over a system that prohibits it to shear.
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Looks like Kevin and Jimena may encounter fujiwara effect !


Looks like Jimena's outflow will shear Kevin apart before that can happen.

THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



all so SEP can be a bust when you have EL Nino


Not really.
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578. Relix
Follow current movements and what people are saying we could see 94L at 55W with latitude of 17.5 or sightly more.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



all so SEP can be a bust when you have EL Nino
well, andrew was en el niƱo year, but then again it was in august and it was an A storm.
576. amd
Quoting Weather456:
NWS, PR

11AM AST

THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.


hmmm, with all due respect to the NHC in PR, winds from buoy 41041 are from the SSE, which suggests that the "center" of 94L is somewhere to the sw or wsw of that buoy. So, the center of 94L must be to the south and west of 14.4 N 46.0 W.

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575. Relix
Quoting Drakoen:
The center of the system is near 12.4N 47.1W


NWS of Puerto Rico has it at:
11.2N AND 45.1W
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, is Jimena the storm u were looking at on the forecast maps earlier last week that was looking like it would hit California?



yes
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573. Relix
Quoting Drakoen:
The center of the system is near 12.4N 47.1W


If by 13.5N it's not west of 50W we could say the antilles have a yellow alert. If by 15N it's at 55W we could call it a red alert... if it's 16N 55W we could be in a... orange alert? =P.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ppl, the Bay of Campeche is the southern part of the GULF OF MEXICO. It is not the site of this morning's new "blob" / AOI. IIRC, that MAY be the Gulf of Columbia or Panama, if it has a name of its own.....


Hehe... indeed. Bay Of Campeche (BOC) is not to be confused with the South-West (SW) Carib. Sea. There's no name given to it, like the BOC.
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What is an Anticyclone? I have the defenition but I can't say I understand it. Can someone put it in laymans terms for me?
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Good morning,

Closest buoy to 94l

Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic 14.357 N 46.008 W


Click image to go to buoy data page
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Quoting canesrule1:
remember, September tropical development.




all so SEP can be a bust when you have EL Nino
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Taz, is Jimena the storm u were looking at on the forecast maps earlier last week that was looking like it would hit California?
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Quoting Drakoen:
The center of the system is near 12.4N 47.1W
i agree.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


That'll prob. change based on what the ECMWF Model is showing for next week.
u just want it to come to SFLA, lol, j/k
QUikscat for blob NW of Columbia...
Link

Looks like a weak circulation.
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Hopefully it will be a fish storm and altough it looks a little too south to be lifted I still think it will. The long range forecast shows a trough aftecting the east coast acting as protector for the next week or two and although the Bermuda high seems to bridge with the high over the U.S., that is short lived as the troughs are easily breaking through and re-curving any threats. As usual, it's a timing thing but we should be OK. As far as it dipping south and staying on more westerly or west northwesterly course, only time will tell but this has been a weird season and it's tough to call but the NHC has a good handle on it and Dr. Masters does as well so I would pay attention to them.
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
Looks like Kevin and Jimena may encounter fujiwara effect !


Kevin will be too weak by then, plus Kevin will merge with Jimena, but thats it.
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remember, September tropical development.

The center of the system is near 12.4N 47.1W
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Looks like Kevin and Jimena may encounter fujiwara effect !
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Quoting canesrule1:
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



K.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.