Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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658. Gorty
Can the public access the SHIPS model? I found this link from Dr. Masters blog from the invest that became Danny: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/09082412AL9209_ships.txt

Seeing if it will ever get updatedm but it never did, lol.

So is the SHIPS model available to the public?

Thanks to anyone who helped.
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Hurricane Jimena

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting hunkerdown:
I think you misunderstood what I was saying, is the impact that different if wind speed difference is 5 mph if we are talking a 150 mph storm.
If I remember my physics correctly, wind speed and wind energy are not linear meaning a 1% increase in wind speeds is not a 1% increase in wind energy. One of the experts, please clarify so I don't have to dig out my old text books. LOL I know, we can scour the internet now days.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I would say yes. Cause 5mph can mean 1% more damage. If a house is rated to withstand Cat 4 winds, What would Cat 5 winds do?
Some people REALLY need to realize, very few homes, almost none, are built to withstand 150, 155 or 160 mph...with that being said, the difference between 5 mph will not be noticable. Again, I am not talking the difference between minimal cat 4 and 175 mph, I am talking maximum cat 4 and BORDERLINE cat 5...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
654. jipmg
Quoting Tazmanian:
Jimena looks more like Wilma


No it does not
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
613. Tazmanian

Those normally update just past synoptic time(normally within an hour), 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z.



ok
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Carver didn't even want to join the Lesser Antilles debate which shows how uncertain future track is but I'm still leaning S and slow development.
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651. jipmg
Quoting Hhunter:


two players on the field...could it be that the carribean item slides north some...anyone have insights on stirring currents..


there is an upper level low pulling the moisture north a bit
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Jimena looks more like Wilma
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Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
i hope the people of cabo relize the magnitude of what is becoming more of reality complete devistation and loss of life that could be in the thousands this could one of the worst natural disasters in the last twenty five years


The Mexican folks are very Cane savvy down there. Ive been there during a close Cane passing and they prep and move well Inland from the threat

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting BrockBerlin:


no that is not a good example because very few people could tell the difference between 155mph and 160mph because proportionally they are much closer together than 15 and 20 mph winds.

I for 1 wouldn't want to be stand in either 155mph or 160mph winds, I probably wouldn't be standing either
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The west side of 94L is definitely going to help it start up if shear relaxes. The infrared floater is indicating new high cloud tops at 11.3N and 49.0W. It's looking like a line of storms toward the ITCZ and farther to the south. If it gets much more energy going to the south, it will stay on a more westward track.
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two players on the field...could it be that the carribean item slides north some...anyone have insights on stearing currents..
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94L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
i hope the people of cabo relize the magnitude of what is becoming more of reality complete devistation and loss of life that could be in the thousands this could one of the worst natural disasters in the last twenty five years
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Quoting juniort:
good morning to all, it seems to me the more we go on, 94l is becoming a greater threat to the eastern caribbean islands, 94l seems to be ehading right for us!!!


what country you from?
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I think you misunderstood what I was saying, is the impact that different if wind speed difference is 5 mph if we are talking a 150 mph storm.

I would say yes. Cause 5mph can mean 1% more damage. If a house is rated to withstand Cat 4 winds, What would Cat 5 winds do?
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Quoting zebralove:
cchweatherman as a new learner I found post 600 very helpful and educational. I wish there were more out there spelling it out and showing there work so to speak. thanks for the info


Thanks. Thats the main reason why I have taken the time and effort in making these graphics. I understand that many people don't have a solid background in meteorology and don't understand all the fancy wording and phrases used in the field. Thats why when I make the graphics and my forecasts I try and be as simplistic and as comprehensible as possible. Not only does it challenge me and reinforce my knowledge, but it allows others to learn.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting Chicklit:

I think it looks good and contains a lot of information in a graphical, easy to understand format.

I agree. Thanks CCHS
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I assume 94L does not have a chance to make it to FL. Am I correct in assuming this considering the conditions setup to pull it North??


Can't say anything for sure this far out concerning any implications for the US.
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637. jipmg
Quoting hunkerdown:
I think you misunderstood what I was saying, is the impact that different if wind speed difference is 5 mph if we are talking a 150 mph storm.


well can you tell the different from 15mph winds and 20mph winds? If you can then yes there is a clear difference..
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613. Tazmanian

Those normally update just past synoptic time(normally within an hour), 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z.
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Quoting amd:


hmmm, with all due respect to the NHC in PR, winds from buoy 41041 are from the SSE, which suggests that the "center" of 94L is somewhere to the sw or wsw of that buoy. So, the center of 94L must be to the south and west of 14.4 N 46.0 W.



true...I wasnt going on the NWS PR location tho
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
634. JLPR
impressive 94L is at red
I wasn't expecting that
good morning everyone =D
...almost good after noon lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting KEHCharleston:
That one threw me at first. I figured and ANTIcyclone must be AGAINST a cylcone developing. If you are ANTI-war, then you are against it right?.
I could not have been more wrong. In this case think of anti as being opposite. An anticyclone rotates in the opposite way that a cyclone does. When positioned above a cyclone, then it provides venting.

Do I have this right, folks?


No that is not right. Ok a tropical cyclone has very strong dynamics and thermodynamics. When a CDO forms and then an eyewall, it consists of very strong thunderstorms. These storms feed off of the warm waters and ideal wind shear conditions of 5-10 knots at the most. As a cyclone develops these storms need help to ventilate therefore they can maintain or strengthen through the cycles of a cyclone. An anticyclone develops in the upper levels of the atmosphere allowing the storms to vent and gives the upper level cirrus clouds and anvils to continue in a direction. In terms of steering anticyclones are ridges of high pressure allowing the storm to follow a path of less resistence or lower pressures which are found on the periphery of a high pressure ridge. These systems allow storms to intensify as opposed to an upper level low which is an upper level cyclone that acts to inhibit cyclone development as both systems have strong convergence. Now an ull will deter development for tropical cyclones and create wind shear and dry, cold dense air on the cyclone. So in the term anticyclone it is the opposite of a cyclone. Cyclones in the northern hemisphere have a counter clockwise wind direction as air comes in towards a low pressure center. An anticyclone has a wind direction that spreads outward from the center of high pressure leading to subsidence and dry air, also it turns in a clockwise direction. I hope that explains it for you.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Wind speed is the difference between Cat 4 and Cat 5.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying, is the impact that different if wind speed difference is 5 mph if we are talking a 150 mph storm.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Let me know what you all think about the Special Storm Analysis so that I can determine whether or not I should make this a new permanent feature on the site.em>

I think it looks good and contains a lot of information in a graphical, easy to understand format.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Great keep it going.


Thanks Aussie. By the way, I send my condolences for your loss.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
good morning to all, it seems to me the more we go on, 94l is becoming a greater threat to the eastern caribbean islands, 94l seems to be ehading right for us!!!
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Quoting hunkerdown:
ehhh, will be borderline but MY OPINION I dont see it at this time. I believe the conditions will keep it just under, as a strong cat 4 (although strong cat 4 or minmal cat 5, is there really a difference other than statistical).

Wind speed is the difference between Cat 4 and Cat 5. The difference can mean alot
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I assume 94L does not have a chance to make it to FL. Am I correct in assuming this considering the conditions setup to pull it North??


It could make landfall anywhere between central America and Norway.
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Some of the tracks will depend on where the energy spins up. It seems to be vacillating according to fluctuations in storm intensities near the ITCZ.
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624. jipmg
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I assume 94L does not have a chance to make it to FL. Am I correct in assuming this considering the conditions setup to pull it North??


Models dont know
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Roger that one, I just added you as a bookmark.

Worried in Jax.
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I assume 94L does not have a chance to make it to FL. Am I correct in assuming this considering the conditions setup to pull it North??
Don't assume anything at this time (remember what assume spells out, ass-u-me)...is it likely, no, but is it out of the question, no.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
I'll pray your assumption is correct, but I will plan that you are wrong ;)
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cchweatherman as a new learner I found post 600 very helpful and educational. I wish there were more out there spelling it out and showing there work so to speak. thanks for the info
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I assume 94L does not have a chance to make it to FL. Am I correct in assuming this considering the conditions setup to pull it North??
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Quoting futuremet:
Looks like Jimena will be the first Cat 5 of the year.
ehhh, will be borderline but MY OPINION I dont see it at this time. I believe the conditions will keep it just under, as a strong cat 4 (although strong cat 4 or minmal cat 5, is there really a difference other than statistical).
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Reminds me of the Dean track.
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Quote from another blogger:
oh my gosh
this is a WEATHER BLOG
not a mental health center

Hmmm,

A.D.D. -> Atmospheric Denial Disorder
H.A.C. -> Hurricance Anxiety Complex

T.W.C.D.D -> Tropical Wave Cyclogenesis Denial Disorder

D.X.M.S. -> Delusional Extrapolation Model Syndrome

M.C.P.P -> Multiple Cylone Panic Psychosis

etc., etc., etc...

Folks, please be respectful and polite to the questions, opinions, observations and stories of others, and just plain ignore those that are obviously just trying to disrupt.

I personally enjoy reading the varied perspectives of all the bloggers here, and just simply read past the instigators.

This blog gives this south Floridian more advance notice than merely listening to the local broadcasts including the NWS.

When there is a potential threat out there like now, I just want information, and little good humor, not some of the behavior I've seen this morning.



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when dos this update next


urricane Guidance
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
[Printable]

000
WHXX01 KMIA 301244
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009) 20090830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 1200 090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 121.9W 15.0N 122.2W 15.1N 122.2W 15.2N 122.2W
BAMD 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.1N 121.2W 16.4N 120.3W
BAMM 14.5N 121.9W 15.5N 121.7W 16.2N 121.0W 16.8N 120.1W
LBAR 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.5N 121.9W 17.7N 122.0W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 1200 090902 1200 090903 1200 090904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 122.2W 15.6N 121.8W 14.5N 123.3W 13.6N 125.7W
BAMD 16.5N 119.6W 16.4N 120.6W 16.3N 124.9W 15.8N 130.7W
BAMM 17.2N 119.4W 17.7N 119.8W 18.2N 122.8W 18.1N 127.0W
LBAR 18.9N 122.3W 22.4N 123.8W 27.4N 125.1W 30.8N 120.3W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 121.9W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 122.1W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 121.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN




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Quoting futuremet:
Looks like Jimena will be the first Cat 5 of the year.
agreed.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
That one threw me at first. I figured and ANTIcyclone must be AGAINST a cylcone developing. If you are ANTI-war, then you are against it right?.
I could not have been more wrong. In this case think of anti as being opposite. An anticyclone rotates in the opposite way that a cyclone does. When positioned above a cyclone, then it provides venting.

Do I have this right, folks?


Yep. Think of it this way...technically "anticyclone" is shorthand for "anticyclonic flow". A cyclonic flow is air spinning in a counterclockwise motion. Therefore, since the greek prefix "anti" means against or opposite, an anticyclonic flow is air flowing in the opposite direction - clockwise.

That's the way atmospheric dymanics work in the norhtern hemisphere...air will flow counterclockwise around a low pressure center, while air will flow clockwise around high pressure. The opposite is true in the southern hemisphere.
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Taz, I bet u didn't expect it to be potentially a major at landfall, though LOL. Looks like they're bringing the track further east and suggesting landfall closer to Cabo San Lucas.

It would have been interesting to see it come in closer to Tijuana / San Diego.....
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good morning everyone! Been working throughout the morning to update the CCHS Weather Center site with updated forecasts for South, Central, and Northern Florida as well as the latest info on Invest 94L and the tropics. On the Atlantic Hurricane Watch page, I will be issuing "Special Storm Analysis" in a graphic form to explain whats currently happening with a system out there. Below you will find the Graphical Tropical Update and Special Storm Analysis from the page.

CCHS Weather Center Graphical Tropical Update


CCHS Weather Center Special Storm Analysis for Invest 94L


Let me know what you all think about the Special Storm Analysis so that I can determine whether or not I should make this a new permanent feature on the site.

Great keep it going.
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Looks like Jimena will be the first Cat 5 of the year.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.