Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif

could someone post a graphic of hurricane dora 1964 i have tried but cant figure it out

i appreciate all the information i get here thanks
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Quoting iceman55:
GFS no good this yr


EXACTLY THE GFS SUCKS...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2974
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Morning Ike! he's right, Ike, it does, what's questionable about that, lol

cause the 12z run of the GFS is not showing it going into the Caribbean.
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Quoting NewYork4Life:
Never saw a tropical wave generate so much discussion...

I believe the concern is that it's almost 9-1, the Atlantic and Carribean are very warm, we already had Bill as a Cat 4 plus it is in a location where it may affect many people!
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Quoting IKE:


No.



lol Iky, you are going too far this time.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 30 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE TASKING NEAR 16.0N 54.0W FOR 01/1800Z.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES NEAR 17.0N 56.0W AT 02/0600Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0113E JIMENA
C. 31/1315Z
D. 19.0N 108.8W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: JIMENA FIX MISSION FOR
01/1800Z NEAR 22.5N 110.8W.
SEF


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Another front is coming down Mon-Tuesday and 94L is going to have to defeat those sw winds thru time to be any threat seems.

It helps for those playing Weatherman to look Downstream in time on the CONUS,to determine what affect those synoptic Changes have on a Atlantic System.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129802
good afternoon all
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting IKE:
94L is not going to hit the US.


Tell us WHY your so confident of this.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
746. IKE
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Don't you think its just way too early to really make such an emphatic declaration?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Don't you think its just way too early to really make such an emphatic declaration?


No.

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IKE, thanks for the heads up!
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Quoting IKE:
94L is not going to hit the US.


Don't you think its just way too early to really make such an emphatic declaration?
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Quoting msphar:
I still don't see how this is going "North of the Islands". Looks like 94 is bound for Barbados.


no..... north of barbados but the leewards
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good morning everyone! Been working throughout the morning to update the CCHS Weather Center site with updated forecasts for South, Central, and Northern Florida as well as the latest info on Invest 94L and the tropics. On the Atlantic Hurricane Watch page, I will be issuing "Special Storm Analysis" in a graphic form to explain whats currently happening with a system out there. Below you will find the Graphical Tropical Update and Special Storm Analysis from the page.

CCHS Weather Center Graphical Tropical Update


CCHS Weather Center Special Storm Analysis for Invest 94L


Let me know what you all think about the Special Storm Analysis so that I can determine whether or not I should make this a new permanent feature on the site.
i agree with you and i have been saying a frances like track for since yesterday. it just has all the ingredients for it right now especially the way its moving now and its starting to breathe.
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Quoting NewYork4Life:
Never saw a tropical wave generate so much discussion...
; )
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TampaSpin:
I like that you have weatherunisys on your website. This 94L needs to start moving north because it is going to get energy from the storms around 10N. If it gets too much energy from this area, it will develop farther south and west.
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736. IKE
94L is not going to hit the US.
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I know the focus is on 94L, but check out the disturbance at 77 West and 12 North in the South Caribbean. Was this just an outflow boundary from the Northern South American Coast. It appears that their is a circulation moving NNW. Anyone have a take on this feature?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

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Quoting cirrocumulus:
If you think we have it tough, look at this!
Foward a copy of that to President Obama, I'm sure he'll get a good laugh out of it! Unfortunately the demonstation is pretty accurate!
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Patrap: Where do you have 94L going?



I dont forecast,..Im a observer,..but the NHC Track consensus is a good bet.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129802
just checking in...

Man, we went from a yellow circle to a red. I guess 94l started to get its act together during the night.
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Never saw a tropical wave generate so much discussion...
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The models to 94L track as the models to Felix development.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
From the NOLA NWS Discussion this am.


LONG TERM...
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE OUT INTO THE GULF MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL STILL HAVE
LINGERING TS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER AFTER THAT POINT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. SHOULD BE
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN.

SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW THATS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PLUS TO
THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN
STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
US EAST COAST. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM THIS POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE
SOMETHING OF CONCERN AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129802
Lookin' at the dance of the high vs the US low

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Patrap: Where do you have 94L going?
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they found the three missing boaters from Texas
link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting cirrocumulus:
TampaSpin: Did you notice the convection on the southwest side of 94L?


You talking about a developing feeder band?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
I still don't see how this is going "North of the Islands". Looks like 94 is bound for Barbados.
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do we have the latest steering maps?
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Almost Wilma-esque
That's the second time I've seen that statement. Wasn't Wilma significantly larger than Jimena?
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Again i used the "A" word on my site but, 94L is setting up exactly as the "A" word currently from what the current available things are showing. But, things can change.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
TampaSpin: Did you notice the convection on the southwest side of 94L?
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In 3 days shear is supposed to relax in the carribean. Very favorable conditions are beginning to take shape. I am thinking that the MJO is beginning upward motion in the western atlantic.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
that band of upper winds north of 94L is beneficial to 94L. it is actually north of the upper anticyclone over 94L and more of a product of 94L's outflow interacting with the TUTT than something that will affect 94L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
just got thru reading tampa spins blog

great info !! almost sounds like dora 1964 more than andrew type track

anyone agree

of course thats assuming it develops
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Quoting Weather456:
The TWC says, 94L will move into north of Puerto but affect the Northern Antilles, it maybe a close call for us.


Yep....i agree....PR could have a problem looming at them!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
If it says south the shear between 55 and 60 looks nasty.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

http://www.asce.org/pressroom/news/display_press.cfm?uid=1469

As winds increase, pressure against objects is added at a disproportionate rate. ...
Thanks, I couldn't remember the formula, and it's a squaring ratio.
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The TWC says, 94L will move north of Puerto but affect the Northern Antilles, it maybe a close call for us.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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