Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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I could understand why we dont want anything hitting the US being the 4 year anniversary of Katrina BUT it does not excuse you from being unrealistic. When another storm threatens bold statements and pick and choose cannot prevent it. Mother nature will continue to roll on. There is a 2010 Hurricane Season. as they say, if it dont come today, it will 2mr.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Looks like a Tuesday hurricane hunter flight into 94L...or whatever it may be at that time.
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TampaSpin: Holy Smokes! Look at how high pressure built in on Andrew!
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From the NOLA Discussion on the front and after passage,..

Something Worth mentioning. Nam12 takes surface low thats expected to
develop today and brings it across the northern Gulf. The plus to
this solution is that the low continues to move away from the area
and reaches the west central Florida coast by Tuesday. The low then
stalls just off the coast as the upper trough continues towards the
US East Coast. What will happen from this point is still in question
but its not out of the realm of possibilities for this feature to be
something of concern at some point in the future so will continue
to monitor.


Meffe
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 30 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE TASKING NEAR 16.0N 54.0W FOR 01/1800Z.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES NEAR 17.0N 56.0W AT 02/0600Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0113E JIMENA
C. 31/1315Z
D. 19.0N 108.8W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: JIMENA FIX MISSION FOR
01/1800Z NEAR 22.5N 110.8W.
SEF
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Quoting truecajun:


good morning. will this front be down south by tues or still in the norhtwest? i'm too tired/ lazy to look at maps right now.



432
fxus64 klix 301433 aaa
afdlix


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
933 am CDT sun Aug 30 2009


Update..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Serialteg, Why the Packer helmet? You can't originally be from WI, you have a sense of humour.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
Andrew

Dora
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Defensive driving class in one picture of Dora!

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2pm Tropical Weather Outlook shall be interesting to say the least.
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TO EARLY FOR BOLD STATEMENTS ON 94l...all of them are wild guesses...
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Both sides of the story.


Click the above image for larger image




For what I see in those graphics you provided, 94L will eventually turn to the North. I feel like if it does it soon it will be affected by devere shear and I doubt it will make it. If it holds its current course for a while, When it turns WNW it will have to deal with the Islands the Big Ones and it might be hurt by that as well. Wonder where it will be by the ned of the next week.
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Quoting Patrap:
Another front is coming down Mon-Tuesday and 94L is going to have to defeat those sw winds thru time to be any threat seems.

It helps for those playing Weatherman to look Downstream in time on the CONUS,to determine what affect those synoptic Changes have on a Atlantic System.


good morning. will this front be down south by tues or still in the norhtwest? i'm too tired/ lazy to look at maps right now.
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how about based on all the confusion we let the dude in the ups commercial do the forecast

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FRONT IN GULF DESERVES WATCHING...
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792. Relix
I'll eat crow if 94L hits PR. I don't think it will. It should definitely affect the northern antilles but not as a direct impact.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2647
Quoting TheDarkRide:
At this point, it might be better to print out a graphic of the models and toss a dart at it. I hardly see a consensus at all, and there are still two very distinct track groups.


Model Suites are guidance tools,..and the best track is a mean between the two.

A better track will be determined after a TD is formed.

Get a grip Fred..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
I thought the "blob" in the Caribbean was nothing and was just storms that were going to go poof. Is that still the case?
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting clwstmchasr:
. TampaSpin 12:28 PM EDT on August 30, 2009
Quoting IKE:
94L is not going to hit the US.


Tell us WHY your so confident of this
.

Bold statement but I don't necessarily disagree with him. I would say that 94L will not hit Florida. Reasoning, look at the past 3 months. Troughs are constantly digging deep into the SE. Look at our weather on the west coast. Just about the entire summer has been rains coming in from the GOM. Unless the pattern were to somehow completely revearse itself - FL and probable the CONUS is safe.

Where the danger lies is the NW Caribbean. With the setup,FL is a sitting duck if a storm were to form.


It will...soon
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
prtr4192: One thing is for sure. That area is where they wrote the story about the boy who cries wolf. Hurricanes rarely have direct hits there no matter what the track forecasts say. One day...
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There is an anticyclone in the region of the disturbance north of Panama. This area bears watching as the persistent convection could get a surface low pressure to develop. No signs of a surface low yet.
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Quoting tornadodude:
they found the three missing boaters from Texas
link
Don't know if too many are aware but Personal Locator Beacons are being sold for under $200. If you go offshore or into wilderness areas often, it would be a good idea to inquire. How much is your life worth?

By the way, I don't sell these or make any money from them in any way just think they are a good idea.

'Might come in handy for some of the weather chasers.
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Quoting Patrap:

I dont forecast,..Im a observer,..but the NHC Track consensus is a good bet.
At this point, it might be better to print out a graphic of the models and toss a dart at it. I hardly see a consensus at all, and there are still two very distinct track groups.
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Quoting IKE:
94L is not going to hit the US.


Hoping you're right, but its way too early to say. Until the storm has curved away and is speeding through the north central Atlantic, you can't make such statements.
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Impact
In the Bahamas, Dora brought heavy rains and high winds to Nassau.[6] The damage associated with Dora in Florida were moderate to severe in some places. However, only one person died directly as a result of the storm from a drowning in Live Oak.[7] Two other people, navy personnel, were killed when an aircraft that was being evacuated crashed at take-off.[2] Because of the slow movement of Dora, wind and flooding were major dangers as some areas bore the brunt of the storm for several hours and in some places up to a day.[2] When Dora made landfall near St. Augustine, points north of Daytona Beach received sustained winds of at least 100 mph (160 km/h), while in some places even more on the evening of September 9.[7]

In St. Augustine, the place of landfall, the city was in the eye of the storm from 12:15 A.M. EST until 1:30 A.M. EST. During that time period, the observer reported a minimum pressure of 28.52 hPa. Shortly after the eye's passage over the city, sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h) were reported. Heavy rain overspread the city as the night progressed, totaling to 7.1 inches (180 mm).[8]

Power supply for Jacksonville and surrounding towns was lost for six days. A total of $280 million ($2 billion in 2005 dollars) in damage was attributed to the hurricane, primarily due to extensive inland flooding. The highest rainfall amount recorded during the hurricane fell at Mayo, where 23.73 inches (603 mm) fell.[9][9]

DORA IMPACT

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Quoting Patrap:
Yesterday here in NOLA we as a Family made time to attend a few events marking the 4th Anniversary of the Storm.


Hurricane Katrina builds bonds of belief




We watched some on TV, then visited with my 2 sis-n-laws who lost thier homes....
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Quoting VoodooRue:



I watched "Trouble the Water" and cried, then headed Uptown for Mid-Summer Mardi Gras on Oak Street, to celebrate and remind me of why I love NOLA so very much.


O yeah,..twas a fine day for it too. We enjoyed it as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting iceman55:
Long range models indicate a ridge could build in the west atlantic & could steer this further west than Bill. Most models do keep this system weak however as no more than a tropical storm going out 5 days. UPDATE BY:Jim Williams...

Unfortunately the short term models have done a real BAD job at forecasting the tropical systems, we'll just have to wait and see if 94L can get it together!
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Quoting SouthFLNative:
I know the focus is on 94L, but check out the disturbance at 77 West and 12 North in the South Caribbean. Was this just an outflow boundary from the Northern South American Coast. It appears that their is a circulation moving NNW. Anyone have a take on this feature?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html




There's no sign of rotation.
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thanks for posting that

for what i gather even though at present time this system is not forecast to as strong as dora but isnt this basicly the same type of setup ???
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Dora:
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Hurricane Dora - September 7-15, 1964

Dora was the first hurricane to impact northeast Florida in at least 79 years. It began as a low pressure area that
passed through the Cape Verde islands on the 28th of August. By the time reconaissance aircraft investigated the
system on the 1st, it had developed into a full-fledged tropical storm well east of the Lesser Antilles. It developed
into a hurricane on the 2nd as it began to move northwest. As it passed 300 miles south of Bermuda, it tracked
on a more westerly course, missing the trough developed from the extratropical cyclone formerly known as Cleo.
This is when Ethel formed to its east. As Dora approached the north Florida coast, its movement slowed, allowing
a populace not used to hurricane evacuation the time to do just that. Tides peaked at 12 feet at Anastasia Island.
The heaviest of the rain fell during the 11th and the 12th and the storm doubled back to the east. Below is the
track of this cyclone, provided by the National Hurricane Center.



Radar

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting Patrap:
Yesterday here in NOLA we as a Family made time to attend a few events marking the 4th Anniversary of the Storm.


Hurricane Katrina builds bonds of belief





I watched "Trouble the Water" and cried, then headed Uptown for Mid-Summer Mardi Gras on Oak Street, to celebrate and remind me of why I love NOLA so very much.
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gfs has remnants of 94l near the eastern bahamas at 180 hrs
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Both sides of the story.


Click the above image for larger image


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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good afternoon Tornadodude. And thanks for the GOOD news story. :)


oh no problem, caught word of it on the weather channel lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Link

DORA TRACK
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Quoting tornadodude:
good afternoon all


Good afternoon Tornadodude. And thanks for the GOOD news story. :)
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Quoting NewYork4Life:
Never saw a tropical wave generate so much discussion...


O-my, you're not a regular, are you?
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Quoting prtr4192:
C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif

could someone post a graphic of hurricane dora 1964 i have tried but cant figure it out

i appreciate all the information i get here thanks


Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Be prepared,and ready the next 30 Days.

2 Sept 2008

Things can and usually do ramp up this week thru the month.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
94l looks disorganised and elongated tropical wave from the latest satelite imagery
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C:\Users\Jeff\Pictures\at196406.gif

could someone post a graphic of hurricane dora 1964 i have tried but cant figure it out

i appreciate all the information i get here thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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