Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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the system hasn't been named yet, how does anyone here know if its going to be a Florida storm? It could very well be an EC storm, if it continues on a wnw track. The models even look confused. Lets just be safe to say, people need to watch the progress of this system.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting stormsurge39:
94L looks like the skeleton of a hurricane. Is it taking in dry air?


Just lack a LL COC yet.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
COC looks more N now I estimate around 13.2/50.3W, quite a shift north compared to the westward movement, imo still think it might clip the Northern Islands and make into the Caribbean though.
I don't see it getting into the Caribbean...through the Fla Straights or brusing N Cuba coast but no further south, just my opinion from "analysis"
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3054. Acorna
Quoting winter123:
August 30th, EST... I just have a gut feeling that something big is going to happen today. Either formation of E storm in atlantic, or landfall of cat 5 on the baja mexico. Crazy. One day after i turned 21 years old too.
I know the feeling. Happy birthday!
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August 31st, EST... I just have a gut feeling that something big is going to happen today. Either formation of E storm in atlantic, or landfall of cat 5 on the baja mexico. Crazy. One day after i turned 21 years old too.
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94L looks like the skeleton of a hurricane. Is it taking in dry air?
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COC looks more N now I estimate around 13.2/50.3W, quite a shift north compared to the westward movement, imo still think it might clip the Northern Islands and make into the Caribbean though.
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15 hour loop:
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Quoting serialteg:


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

I got banned possibly for a pic of a cloud shaped like an elephant. In Dr. Masters' blog he discussed a cloud shaped like a wave on Bill's eyewall. Danny kind of looked like an elephant to some people, and it took off from there.

So I can see how posting a Geico lizard pic can get you banned.

Actually, if the the personal attacks / bickering rule were enforced as strictly as the pics...

I was told that talking about a ban can get you re-banned, so if you don't see me for another 24hrs, you know what happened.


wow, amazing i never got banned for how random i am
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Cold air damming expected over the NC Piedmont for the next few days. Looking forward to some cooler temps! Should struggle to hit 70 tomorrow in Greensboro.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


November only has 30 days.


pwnd.
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Poor Florida... always getting named here
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3044. 7544
Quoting Bordonaro:

That appears to be the COC (Center of Circulation) that is not the eye. Looks like 94L is starting to slowly come together!!


hmm thanks thats a nice looking coc pretty tight than we have seen in other invest this could really raamp up fast with a coc like that dmax a comin
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As long as that anticyclone is over 94L, those high wind shear winds will not disrupt the center. Seems like 94L is yet again trying to come together. We'll see what happens.. Models look bad for the USA for now, a track towards Florida, but things can change through the days.
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Even with the lack of convection 94L remains a pretty organize system, and threatening to say the least. Do to climatology and well organization the northern antilles should remain under alert for the latest updates.
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3040. JLPR
94L looking better
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Quoting Bordonaro:

That appears to be the COC (Center of Circulation) that is not the eye. Looks like 94L is starting to slowly come together!!


I agree. Slowly but surely she is getting her act together it seems.
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94L has slowed in forward speed quite abit over the last few hours it would appear to me anyways.
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Quoting 7544:
*-is that a eye at 12 / 48 Link

check it ouut

That appears to be the COC (Center of Circulation) that is not the eye. Looks like 94L is starting to slowly come together!!
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Quoting truecajun:


not really sure why they banned him for that


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

I got banned possibly for a pic of a cloud shaped like an elephant. In Dr. Masters' blog he discussed a cloud shaped like a wave on Bill's eyewall. Danny kind of looked like an elephant to some people, and it took off from there.

So I can see how posting a Geico lizard pic can get you banned.

Actually, if the the personal attacks / bickering rule were enforced as strictly as the pics...

I was told that talking about a ban can get you re-banned, so if you don't see me for another 24hrs, you know what happened.
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Quoting katzanddogz:


You are kidding me!!! Crazy! I read alot of things on this blog that people should get banned for and don't. That's just plain wrong!


I totaly agree here.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Alright folks...I'm off on another intercept. The Hurricane Van is loaded with my luggage and I'm headed out to the airport.

Luckily, I was able to upload two new videos to YouTube before I left town. Today was alot of hard work...and come tomorrow through next week, more of the same!

I'll update as often as I can. So will StormJunkie and PensacolaDoug. See you folks on the other side!

CycloneOz---Out...


You might have to be right on spot with your location as this thing has a very tiny core of hurricane forces winds.Last time i looked at the NHC advisory they only extend out about 20-25 miles or so.Satellite appearence is a bid on the ragged side right now but upper conditions are very favorable hopefully it wont choke up on a eyewall replacement cycle which may hold back intensity but it good very well try to make a run at cat 5 intensity.

Watch out for the flood potential. adrian
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3031. flsky
Quoting WunderFul:
BTW, in my neck of the woods, it just dropped into the 40s, and it isn't even midnight, still in August. What a wacky summer we've had up here. (If you're curious as to why a Midwesterner like me is so interested in the tropics, my little sis lives in Savannah, so I watch out for her a bit.)

Where are you located? It rarely gets below the low 70's at night during the summer where I live. Cool temps sound kind of nice!
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I agree

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Quoting JohnnyMandeville:
So out of curiosity, would I get banned for a picture of a cavemen?
As long it was about caveman weather forecasting, it should be okay.
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...but this is nothing imminent, and panic should not be an option

Don't be silly. Panic is ALWAYS an option.
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Thanks for the response
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Time for a poll ...

When will the last "StormW Ban" post occur?

a. 6-12 hours
b. 48-72 hours
c. When steering maps update
d. Nov 31

By the way .. convection consolidating


Did he really get banned, or did he just pretend to get banned in a conspiracy with Admin to show how serious they are about off-topic pics?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Time for a poll ...

When will the last "StormW Ban" post occur?

a. 6-12 hours
b. 48-72 hours
c. When steering maps update
d. Nov 31

By the way .. convection consolidating


November only has 30 days.
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94Lconvection has waned some, but organization & structure wise it has improved quite a bit over the past few hours.
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Quoting JohnnyMandeville:
Are there any thoughts on whether 94L could pose any threat to the gulf coast, or is it set up to follow Bill and Danny?


I asked storm earlier today if he thought it would enter the GOM. He said no due to the current steering systems. I'm not wording it exactly like he did, but that is basically what he said.
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evening all!
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3018. 7544
*-is that a eye at 12 / 48 Link

check it ouut
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Quoting JohnnyMandeville:
Are there any thoughts on whether 94L could pose any threat to the gulf coast, or is it set up to follow Bill and Danny?


Models suggest that the subtropical ridge to the north will build back to the west after five days, so the Gulf Coast should keep an eye, but this is nothing imminent, and panic should not be an option.
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Storm will be back tomorrow. I think we will need his analysis more tomorrow than this evening.
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Quoting truecajun:


he posted a pic of the geico lizard. i guess they considered that advertisement??? not really sure why they banned him for that, but that is what got him banned.


You are kidding me!!! Crazy! I read alot of things on this blog that people should get banned for and don't. That's just plain wrong!
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Are there any thoughts on whether 94L could pose any threat to the gulf coast, or is it set up to follow Bill and Danny?
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So out of curiosity, would I get banned for a picture of a cavemen?
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WS, this thing between you and Drak is getting creepy and almost stalker-ish. Why do you need people telling you about him over Facebook?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.