Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting Chicklit:

Link
Wonder when 94L will get to TD status.
imo, tonight. possibly 5 PM

Link
Wonder when 94L will get to TD status.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
856. Relix
Quoting Weather456:
Everybody's got something different

20090830.1645.goes12.x.vis1km.94LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-112N-491W


Lol. If even the pros are having problems then we should have even more haha
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Yeah although the trending west is worrying it still would appear the CONUS will not be affected, but obviously from this point in time I can't say so quite as certainly as Ike.
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Quoting Dakster:
Canesrule1 - Have fun at Bal Harbour. I know the place, but I don't shop there. Too far North for me.
It is rather far up, but i live on miami beach so i just take collins right up to bal harbour.
Quoting serialteg:


How would you like it, sauteed, oven-baked, deep fried...



Mornin', dear. Breakfast?


I'll pass on crow breakfast! grits maybe?
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852. Relix
I am having a problem with Java in my PC. Can anyone tell me where 94L is moving looking at the WV and Visible loops? Funktop also helps!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Everybody's got something different

20090830.1645.goes12.x.vis1km.94LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-112N-491W
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting sandyoaksea:
Sandy is new here...so please be kind to questions :). This new development Invest? What does invest mean? As well, maybe I am a person who would love to see some more intense weather here on the Treasure Coast...don't shoot me, ok?

How do I start reading what the "trough" over FL is or will be doing?

Thanks from a chick who has learned to love weather since Frances and Jeanne....still learning


I hope you're here and not miss this...

Invests are areas of interest for tropical cyclone developement.

To read steering, use this page and select an image that's according to your area of interest's millibar pressure. 94L>1000mb so you should use 1000-1010.

Quoting ssmate:
Serialteg, Why the Packer helmet? You can't originally be from WI, you have a sense of humour.


Packers are tha' bomb. Avid NFL fan, Packer fan since 1994 or something. And yes, I'm not the only Puerto Rican packerfan. But there are few...
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My percentages time!!!

Where will 94L end up?!?!

1. Recurve out to sea: 71%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 27%

3. Caribbean: 2%

Note these percentages are based on the 12z models.
Canesrule1 - Have fun at Bal Harbour. I know the place, but I don't shop there. Too far North for me.
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Don't know if too many are aware but Personal Locator Beacons are being sold for under $200. If you go offshore or into wilderness areas often, it would be a good idea to inquire. How much is your life worth?

By the way, I don't sell these or make any money from them in any way just think they are a good idea.

'Might come in handy for some of the weather chasers.


Sounds like a good idea thanks. In 1989 my dad's two best friends, both mature and experienced fisherman, boaters and swimmers died of hypothermia just yards from the shore in Lake Sam Rayburn. This lake is notoriously dangerous when the wind kicks up. Knowing all of this my husband and I still got into trouble this past spring out there. And I watch the weather closely. Wasn't supposed to be any wind that day. We were fishing a cove when I noticed we were being pushed toward the shore. Our cell phones don't work in that part of the lake. I told him to bank the boat. Because we had open water between there and the ramp. Of course he doesn't. We found out later that it was 20kts and four foot seas we crossed that day. In a 16 ft bass boat! Thank God we made it. Soaked head to toe. Teeth bout knocked outta my head. He had the steering wheel to hold onto. And I flew for the first time without a plane. He jerked me back down or I was in the water. Geesh! What a day! Lol. My point is ya never know what could happen. Think I'll get a few of those and pass em out for Christmas. :)
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Quoting tornadodude:


ive posted it like 2 times but here it is again


no someone asked why y'all were posting dora and andrew tracks. i was responding by letting them know that someone asked for dora. thanks though.
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This will be an interesting buoy to watch over the next 12 hours or so.

Station 41NT0 -Northwest Tropical Atlantic 14.817 N 52.000 W

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Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I thought the "blob" in the Caribbean was nothing and was just storms that were going to go poof. Is that still the case?

i think they become the major that about to hit so cal
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that sudden turn is far in the horizon
Lesser antilles be on your gaurd
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thanks for posting all the stuff on dora

i live in jax area and i am new to posting here but have been lurking for long time

i was just trying to understand how dora happened and if the condtions are possible with
this system
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I'm going to be signing off in about 20 to 30 minutes to go to Bal Harbour shops, (for those of you who live in SFLA know the mall)
Is their a high still forecasted to position itself over the east coast of the US?, according to CMC it looks like their wont be a high.
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Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet - CMC has been the winner this season so far, definetly one model to keep an eye on. At least it has the storm turning before CONUS landfall.
I will say it is uncertain what 94L will do after Puerto Rico, imo
94l 11N 49W moving north of due west
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Futuremet - CMC has been the winner this season so far, definetly one model to keep an eye on. At least it has the storm turning before CONUS landfall.
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Quoting futuremet:
12Z CMC shifts left...
after right here, it is rather uncertain:

Regarding 94L, doesn't it appear in water vapor loop that the NW side is beginning to see the affects of higher wind shear?
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Quoting Relix:
I'll eat crow if 94L hits PR. I don't think it will. It should definitely affect the northern antilles but not as a direct impact.


How would you like it, sauteed, oven-baked, deep fried...

Quoting truecajun:


good morning. will this front be down south by tues or still in the norhtwest? i'm too tired/ lazy to look at maps right now.


Mornin', dear. Breakfast?
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Quoting Dakster:


I guess they think 94L will follow one of those tracks... I think it is a little too early to tell at the moment.
i agree, this could end up in either new foundland or miami or cozumel, no one knows for sure.
Quoting truecajun:


someone asked for the dora track earlier this morn


ive posted it like 2 times but here it is again
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
12Z CMC shifts left...
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Someone requested a Dora track as he couldn't locate it.
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Quoting Dakster:


I guess they think 94L will follow one of those tracks... I think it is a little too early to tell at the moment.


someone asked for the dora track earlier this morn
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828. amd
94L is clearly moving NW on imagery. Also, winds are becoming more southerly at buoy 41041, which is another sign that suggest 94L is gaining latitude.
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12z GFS is a mess. I'll wait for the ECMWF.
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That's what you get when El Nino turns on the heat.
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Quoting canesrule1:
Why is everyone posing tracks of Dora and Andrew?


I guess they think 94L will follow one of those tracks... I think it is a little too early to tell at the moment.
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Quoting futuremet:
WOW!!!
Why is everyone posing tracks of Dora and Andrew?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's not the size, it's the look. That tiny eye and the smooth, circular CDO.

I can see their point.
\

Are you saying size doesn't matter?
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
THis is looking like a classic Carribean-Gulf type of storm in the making. Gustav, Frederic, Camille, Ivan, Georges, etc.


Agree with you....seems too far south to go north, and we've seen this before! not good
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Jimena as a small stadium effect eye. Its amazing. Outflow is still poor on the eastern side.
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Surface circulation is really tightening up now with 94L, convection could increase tonight as it continues to tighten its circulation.
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Quoting Patrap:



432
fxus64 klix 301433 aaa
afdlix


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
933 am CDT sun Aug 30 2009


Update..




thanks patrap. so this is the front that is upon us now. it will linger for a while.
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Quoting TheDarkRide:
That's the second time I've seen that statement. Wasn't Wilma significantly larger than Jimena?
It's not the size, it's the look. That tiny eye and the smooth, circular CDO.

I can see their point.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
I'd be interested to know what the wind speed is in 94L. The rotation looks quite vigorous, now.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


For what I see in those graphics you provided, 94L will eventually turn to the North. I feel like if it does it soon it will be affected by devere shear and I doubt it will make it. If it holds its current course for a while, When it turns WNW it will have to deal with the Islands the Big Ones and it might be hurt by that as well. Wonder where it will be by the ned of the next week.

I have decided that the graphics and models are like a Rorsarch Ink Block test.
Interpretation tells more about the person looking, than the image itself.

But my dear man, reality is only a Rorschach ink-blot, you know.
Alan Watts
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Strange little weather pattern with Jimena and Kevin. Hope our friends in Mexico stay safe. They usually have good plans in place. Jimena looks like a nasty one this morning.
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i hope i dont sound like i am crying wolf

i know one day we will see a storm here and i dont feel this area is prepared as well as it should be

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Sandy is new here...so please be kind to questions :). This new development Invest? What does invest mean? As well, maybe I am a person who would love to see some more intense weather here on the Treasure Coast...don't shoot me, ok?

How do I start reading what the "trough" over FL is or will be doing?

Thanks from a chick who has learned to love weather since Frances and Jeanne....still learning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I could understand why we dont want anything hitting the US being the 4 year anniversary of Katrina BUT it does not excuse you from being unrealistic. When another storm threatens bold statements and pick and choose cannot prevent it. Mother nature will continue to roll on. There is a 2010 Hurricane Season. as they say, if it dont come today, it will 2mr.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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