Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Wow what happened to 94L? Last I checked last night it was hilighted in yellow. This thing has organized rather quickly. People in VA, NC, SC, GA and especially FL needs to keep an eye on 94L because right now it has nice structure with good banding feautures and firing up decent convection. Is there a llc with this and are the hh investigating 94L?
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904. Relix
Quoting JRRP:
94L is moving wnw
no west


But right now it's looking quite weak. Wouldn't surprise for the T# numbers to drop. And it's actually moving W-WNW than a pure WNW.
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Quoting juniormeteorologist:
May be to early to tell.. But do you guys think that 94L will probably become a Major Hurricane and not miss the CONUS
U were right. Too early. Keep in mind literally thousands of Twaves have passed through the area where 94L is now. Even based on simple climatology, the landfall possibilities span the entire western half of the basin....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
94L is at 11.5N and 47.8W on visible. The stronger storms are still at 11N and 49W on infrared. It may reform around the stronger storms, but it is moving little and may be starting to develop stronger banding to the north. Shear is taking some of the cloud tops away on the far west side near 54W. The models still initialize too far north.
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901. BKM77
Wow, looks like NHC moved it up to red. What does the track look like I am thinking a WNW then slowly more NW when it begins to get some good intesification going...What do you guys think?
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with Bill the chance of missing the CONUS was high, we still dont know for sure with 94L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
899. JRRP
94L is moving wnw
no west
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165
whats see if 94L be comes TD 6 1st be for we start talking about hurricanes i say 94L will peak at 50mph do to higher wind shear has it moves N
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting Dakster:
Weatherstudent I am looking foward to your detailed analysis of the weather patterns affecting 94L and your subsequent forecast as to its future track


oh yea
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896. ackee
I think 94 is still moveing west system appears to be getting elongated
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Patrap, what was that thing you posted earlier about the possible low forming in the Gulf? on the GFS precipitation model they do show an area along the Gulf Coast within 24-48 hours just giving some heavy rain.
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Quoting canesrule1:
after right here, it is rather uncertain:



After there look to be a trough of low pressure sweeps it up
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30616
94 appears to be stretched from SW to NE in water vapor loops with what appears to be a reaction to the high shear close to its N/NW. The area to the NW/N of 94 seems to be getting cut off. Does this look like an issue to you experts regarding further development?
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Looked at GFDL again, and not seeing what would influence such a sharp turn on such a relatively undeveloped system.

The WNW drift seems pretty logical to me over the next 48, unless we see TS status before then.

Also, didn't I see Pat or somebody post a graphic with model projections that had 94L's XTRAP pointing towards TRINIDAD????

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
May be to early to tell.. But do you guys think that 94L will probably become a Major Hurricane and not miss the CONUS
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Weatherstudent I am looking foward to your detailed analysis of the weather patterns affecting 94L and your subsequent forecast as to its future track.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting BahaHurican:
Depends on whether size is the issue, doesn't it?



Now, Now!!
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NOGAPS showing recurvature as the system becomes affected by the eastern seaboard trough
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30616
94L yesterday

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Quoting Weather456:
94L still being affected by diurnal cycles. It's once again losts some convection despite the well define circulation.
I agree, possibly a naked swirl tonight and something that looks like Andrew in the morning.
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884. ackee
seem like 94L is been affected by shear the seasons has been kind of weird would not be suprise if 94L does not develop
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882. Relix
Java working now! w00t! It's looking ragged and ugly right now. Moving West with a touch of north.
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94L still being affected by diurnal cycles. It's once again losts some convection despite the well define circulation.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting 789:
thak you
no problem
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Still no definite center of circulation but that should be coming soon, don't you think?
Loop
On shortwave (blue) you can see it better, starting to develop into a TS.
Link
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Quoting Dakster:
JRRP - Now I can tell 94 is not moving due west. Maybe those pros do know what they are talking about!
Moving WNW to me.
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876. 789
Quoting canesrule1:
No renumber, no td, simple as that.
thak you
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Yesterday I caught some 50knot barbs, now back to normal and dissapointing - looking ...



Seems like it's still very much ITCZ'ed.
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Here is Dora Track

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Thank you Serial. BTW: I LOVED Brett Favre!!! He is "mr scruffy" to me :)

I will check it out...thanks for the information. I want to learn as much as I can...being an amateur surrounded by persons who know!!
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JRRP - Now I can tell 94 is not moving due west. Maybe those pros do know what they are talking about!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting Dakster:
Canesrule - Yeah. not a bad ride from there. Heck even "The Falls" is north for me.

I don't think you will miss much while out over-spending at Bal harbour. (Although I guess it is a bargain compared to shopping on Miami Beach or Bayside).
HAHA, lol, it is a bit overpriced, but the shopping is exceptional.
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Quoting Dakster:
\

Are you saying size doesn't matter?
Depends on whether size is the issue, doesn't it?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
grits maybe?

Stone ground speckled heart cooked for 4-5 hours with lots of heavy whipping cream...YUMMY!!!

Looks to me like 94 is starting to pull N some more, but one problem I am having is finding any sort of well defined center. Seems to be elongated?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
i've never been a wishcaster, but i've got a bad feeling about 94L. not that it's worth anything, but for some reason, this one is the first to spook me this year.
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Quoting 789:
td at 2;00 ?
No renumber, no td, simple as that.
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Sometimes this help when looking at all the data

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Canesrule - Yeah. not a bad ride from there. Heck even "The Falls" is north for me.

I don't think you will miss much while out over-spending at Bal harbour. (Although I guess it is a bargain compared to shopping on Miami Beach or Bayside).
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting Relix:


Lol. If even the pros are having problems then we should have even more haha
in my opinion i believe the COC is located at 47.8W and 11.4
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Quoting Relix:
I am having a problem with Java in my PC. Can anyone tell me where 94L is moving looking at the WV and Visible loops? Funktop also helps!!!


Use flash.


Quoting truecajun:


I'll pass on crow breakfast! grits maybe?


You have to teach me what it is, and I'll work on it. I'm gonna do omelettes, though. 2 eggs, ham, cheese, onions, green peppers, jalapeƱos, tomatoes.
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862. JRRP
11.7n
48w
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165
861. 789
Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet - CMC has been the winner this season so far, definetly one model to keep an eye on. At least it has the storm turning before CONUS landfall.
td at 2;00 ?
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Compact Personal EPIRBs - EPIRB - Emergency Position Indicators





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Relix:
I am having a problem with Java in my PC. Can anyone tell me where 94L is moving looking at the WV and Visible loops? Funktop also helps!!!


looks west to me, by funktop and water vapor. but i'm not very good at "seeing" when they are still in the beginning stages.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Link
Wonder when 94L will get to TD status.
imo, tonight. possibly 5 PM
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.