Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Acemett - THAT'S TAZ's line!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Canesrule1, You are from University of Oklahoma but a canes fan? And if you have a phd in this stuff why are you on WU blogs?????

Something dont add up brotha.
lol, I was a canes fan since I was 6 or 7 years old, and i always have and always will love them. And I don't care if I have a Ph.D i still enjoy to post.
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I don't like all the convection in the GOM!
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Quoting winter123:
ha, 94l has same structure as jimena.




dude i think you've been lokking at the screen to long get so rest and come back later or go to an eye or even better a nerusergon get help
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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Jimena

AVN Image


i spy a pin hole eye
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Quoting winter123:


They might do a fujiwara too, meaning there will be all kinds of crazy tracks.


I thought fujiwara was in Okinawa. Kidding, Kidding!!!
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Very good chance 94L recurves. But anything that forms after the first week of september will have to be watched because the high should be strong and will move systems west. Right now I will take a trough over a high any day of the week lol!


Could make for an iteresting time as we get into the middle of September!
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Winter123 - I mean this is the gentlist way possible. I think you need to see an "eye" doctor...

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Quoting canesrule1:
good! keep up the good work


Thanks! my friend andrew just graduated from here this year and was selected to go on Vortex, he had a blast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Canesrule1, You are from University of Oklahoma but a canes fan? And if you have a phd in this stuff why are you on WU blogs?????

Something dont add up brotha.
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Those 50 knt barbs in yesterday in the quickscat were rain-contaminated.


Yea, or so I figured...
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945. unf97
The SW Caribbean disturbance is looking a bit more interesting to me this afternoon. If the convection continues to persist in that region, that will raise my curiosity in the short term. We just have to observe and see what may transpire there, if anything.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I'm a freshman at Purdue pursuing a degree in meteorology
good! keep up the good work
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why wont you update ugh


000
WHXX01 KMIA 301244
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009) 20090830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 1200 090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 121.9W 15.0N 122.2W 15.1N 122.2W 15.2N 122.2W
BAMD 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.1N 121.2W 16.4N 120.3W
BAMM 14.5N 121.9W 15.5N 121.7W 16.2N 121.0W 16.8N 120.1W
LBAR 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.5N 121.9W 17.7N 122.0W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 1200 090902 1200 090903 1200 090904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 122.2W 15.6N 121.8W 14.5N 123.3W 13.6N 125.7W
BAMD 16.5N 119.6W 16.4N 120.6W 16.3N 124.9W 15.8N 130.7W
BAMM 17.2N 119.4W 17.7N 119.8W 18.2N 122.8W 18.1N 127.0W
LBAR 18.9N 122.3W 22.4N 123.8W 27.4N 125.1W 30.8N 120.3W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 121.9W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 122.1W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 121.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM


sould t you have updateed by now??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
The could be a devastating blow for Cabo San Lucas

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
ha, 94l has same structure as jimena.



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Quoting canesrule1:
I have a Ph.D in Meteorology and tropical meteorology from the university of Oklahoma, and i doubt right now that 94L will affect the CONUS, i could be wrong, but for right now im not anticipating a CONUS landfall.


I'm a freshman at Purdue pursuing a degree in meteorology
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Quoting presslord:


well...as it happened...they had some hotter girls than me...so I just hung out for a while and made myself useful...


Cool... Sounds like you had fun! BTW - The thunderstorm you wanted is in my backyard right now. It stopped me in the middle of mowing the backyard...
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Quoting InTheCone:
Well, I guess if 94l doesn't want to get it's act together we can always start debating whether or not this little bugger will ever come to be - 12z GFS @ 120hrs....



ECMWF also shows this and has it moving west into the CATL...

ECMWF

This is just for fun! Don't flame me out - LOL!!


You read my mind, that is why I made my last post read it. Middle of september trough's come to an end.
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Quoting Funkadelic:
Very good chance 94L recurves. But anything that forms after the first week of september will have to be watched because the high should be strong and will move systems west. Right now I will take a trough over a high any day of the week lol!


All this is getting old......and getting old fast. How does anyone absolutely know where this is going? It IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE IT IS GOING TO GO.

Also, just my opinion, but I think 94L is one more decent blow up of convection and we should have TD 6.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting sandyoaksea:
Sandy is new here...so please be kind to questions :). This new development Invest? What does invest mean? As well, maybe I am a person who would love to see some more intense weather here on the Treasure Coast...don't shoot me, ok?

How do I start reading what the "trough" over FL is or will be doing?

Thanks from a chick who has learned to love weather since Frances and Jeanne....still learning


To go into a bit more detail, storms typically progress from:

Tropical wave: a cluster of convection migrating roughly east to west across the MDR (Main Development Region)

Surface low: Tropical cyclones are systems with a low pressure zone at the surface; this leads to surface convergence (winds approaching the center along the surface), which then leads to convection (rising moist air) and upper level divergence.

Invest: Invests are what you get when a low is declared to have a significant chance of developing into a cyclone. They typically have names like "94l". The first number is incremental for each successive invest, and always begins with '9' (they wrap around). The second number is the basin -- 'l' means north atLantic.

Depression: Surface low, sustained convection, mild winds, and poor organization, sometimes without convection over the low.

Tropical storm: Depression, with convection being maintained over the low and significant surface winds

Hurricane: Tropical storm with high surface winds.
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Quoting juniormeteorologist:


Actually Tropical Depression 5..the first advisory of Danny was his name as TS Danny.



nop it will be TD 6 they skip TD 5 and went right too Danny it was still called TD 5 or 05L Danny
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting Grothar:


Strange little weather pattern with Jimena and Kevin. Hope our friends in Mexico stay safe. They usually have good plans in place. Jimena looks like a nasty one this morning.


They might do a fujiwara too, meaning there will be all kinds of crazy tracks.
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o taz this kinding??????? What does that mean exactly?
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Quoting juniormeteorologist:


Actually Tropical Depression 5..the first advisory of Danny was his name as TS Danny.


nope

Remember 2007 Barry which never came TD 2. But the advisories for Chantal started with TD 3.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Wow. Five of the six TC basins are active right now. Only SPac (winter season) is silent. What a big difference from a couple weeks ago....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting WeatherStudent:



And FIU is going to award me my Ph.d in the field of Tropical Meteorology tomorrow.
I have a Ph.D in Meteorology and tropical meteorology from the university of Oklahoma, and i doubt right now that 94L will affect the CONUS, i could be wrong, but for right now im not anticipating a CONUS landfall.
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Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats see if 94L be comes TD 6 1st be for we start talking about hurricanes i say 94L will peak at 50mph do to higher wind shear has it moves N


Actually Tropical Depression 5..the first advisory of Danny was his name as TS Danny.
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Well, I guess if 94l doesn't want to get it's act together we can always start debating whether or not this little bugger will ever come to be - 12z GFS @ 120hrs....



ECMWF also shows this and has it moving west into the CATL...

ECMWF

This is just for fun! Don't flame me out - LOL!!
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Quoting ackee:
seem like 94L is been affected by shear the seasons has been kind of weird would not be suprise if 94L does not develop


It may because it is hilighted in red. It will miss the dry air. But you are right, it may run into 20 kt shear. The closer it gets to the coast the better organized it will become because shear is low 5-10kts.
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Very good chance 94L recurves. But anything that forms after the first week of september will have to be watched because the high should be strong and will move systems west. Right now I will take a trough over a high any day of the week lol!
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
923. unf97
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wow what happened to 94L? Last I checked last night it was hilighted in yellow. This thing has organized rather quickly. People in VA, NC, SC, GA and especially FL needs to keep an eye on 94L because right now it has nice structure with good banding feautures and firing up decent convection. Is there a llc with this and are the hh investigating 94L?


There are Air Force Recon Aircrafts scheduled to investigate 94L right now for Tuesday, unless there have been changes to this as of early Sunday afternoon.
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My percentages time!!!

Where will 94L end up?!?!

1. Recurve out to sea: 50%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 50%

3. Caribbean: 50%
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Wow what happened to 94L? Last I checked last night it was hilighted in yellow. This thing has organized rather quickly. People in VA, NC, SC, GA and especially FL needs to keep an eye on 94L because right now it has nice structure with good banding feautures and firing up decent convection. Is there a llc with this and are the hh investigating 94L?

I think I saw something about Tuesday for 94L if it keeps going. Yeah, looks like the engine has started and it's leaving the station.
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Wasn't there someone on here yesterday who forecasted that we'd be CODE RED on 94L today.
.
This one continues to move WWWNW as the experts shake their heads, and the models are useless until they have something to initialize on.
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Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting juniormeteorologist:
May be to early to tell.. But do you guys think that 94L will probably become a Major Hurricane and not miss the CONUS


I would say it will not become a Major Hurricane and will miss the CONUS, but obviously this is just a prediction certainly not a statement of fact, and it is too early to really worry about that.
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916. 789
Quoting juniormeteorologist:
May be to early to tell.. But do you guys think that 94L will probably become a Major Hurricane and not miss the CONUS
a b c d e i like polls
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so Weatherstudent did you end joy your row boat trip out too 94L last night ??? so what did you see in 94L last night on your trip too 94L


this kinding
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
So, in essence the link to "steering" currents and I picked 1000 to 1010, the "trough" then is what is coming from the West?

Seems to me that steering currents are very confusing to me. But appears there are MORE from E to W and this "trough" dipping down into FL could arrive before this invest?

Baby steps.....:)
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Quoting canesrule1:
My percentages time!!!

Where will 94L end up?!?!

1. Recurve out to sea: 71%

2. Eastern U.S coast: 27%

3. Caribbean: 2%

Note these percentages are based on the 12z models.


Those percentages are not accurate. There has to be more than a 2% chance it gets into the Caribbean....
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
In 2007, 94L became 06L. But was named Felix around September 1.

We may have a repeat of time frame and ID number not track, name or intensity.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Wow what happened to 94L? Last I checked last night it was hilighted in yellow. This thing has organized rather quickly. People in VA, NC, SC, GA and especially FL needs to keep an eye on 94L because right now it has nice structure with good banding feautures and firing up decent convection. Is there a llc with this and are the hh investigating 94L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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