Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1008. juniort
I see the leading edge of the clouds asociated with 94L staring to come in on barbados
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Quoting Matagordville:


As my screen name suggest I am fromm the area that the boaters left from. We have been following this devolpoing story closely praying for the safe return of these men. I was very happy today to read inb the paper that they wer found alive. The story of being on top of a capsized boat for 6 days must be truly amazing, I am eager to hear the deatils.


oh wow, well im glad they found them too, must have been one heck of a trip
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I'm going to start giving my utmost intelligence and forecasts on this blog now, before i would just give my opinions. I am a changed man! lol
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Quoting Acemmett90:
lol this is so true
look for florida


That is hilllllareous! I bet many in Florida would like to do that 3-4 months every year.
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94 is starting to blossom.
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1003. Patrap
The NOLA Discussion Mentions the 12 Z NAM and more.




Cold front will sag through the area overnight. Sh/ts coverage will
be much less than the daytime and should be confined to coastal
parishes/counties as well as the coastal waters.


Long term...
the boundary will continue out into the Gulf Monday as the trough
axis pivots eastward. Most of the forecast area will be in benign
weather through this week. The coastal waters will still have
lingering ts through Tuesday but fair weather after that point.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should return late this week and
into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the east. Should be
a typical Summer time pattern.


Something Worth mentioning. Nam12 takes surface low thats expected to
develop today and brings it across the northern Gulf. The plus to
this solution is that the low continues to move away from the area
and reaches the west central Florida coast by Tuesday. The low then
stalls just off the coast as the upper trough continues towards the
US East Coast. What will happen from this point is still in question
but its not out of the realm of possibilities for this feature to be
something of concern at some point in the future so will continue
to monitor.


Meffer
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1002. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the cOC of 94L is around 11.6N/48.3W, jmo.
agree where do u think its currently moveing
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Quoting tornadodude:
they found the three missing boaters from Texas
link


As my screen name suggest I am fromm the area that the boaters left from. We have been following this devolpoing story closely praying for the safe return of these men. I was very happy today to read inb the paper that they wer found alive. The story of being on top of a capsized boat for 6 days must be truly amazing, I am eager to hear the deatils.
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Good afternoon everyone.

Just took a look at 94L and it would appear that the "center", such as it is at this time, is near 11.5N 48W.

I am not seeing much of a WNW motion and the poor organization coupled with wind shear may keep this weak long enough to track pretty much just due N of W. The ULL digging S near PR may not be enough to influence a move to the NW unless 94L comes together very quickly and gets stacked vertically.

Failing that the low level flow is still due W.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Well, I am glad you all are so smart. I took 5 years at UF and barely got out with Business degree. One heck of a ride.
lol, wow
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Quoting Patrap:
I note the NE Quad Blooming T-storms Like popcorn at the Matinee.




lol
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Hurricane Kiko
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Quoting Acemmett90:

damn it lol just got dont cha mena chokelahoma

Thought you might like that...

Chokelahoma is pretty good too... Can't wait to see FSU get blown away by the 'Canes.
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What is some thoughts on the GOM blob? I don't like to see anything in the Gulf, especially with as warm as the water is right now.
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Quoting canesrule1:
I have a Ph.D in Meteorology and tropical meteorology from the university of Oklahoma, and i doubt right now that 94L will affect the CONUS, i could be wrong, but for right now im not anticipating a CONUS landfall.


Well, I am glad you all are so smart. I took 5 years at UF and barely got out with Business degree. One heck of a ride.
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Quoting Dakster:
Acemmet - you didn't get the joke.. "SOONER" or later, they all come back to Miami.. He was from Oklahoma... And you work/own a sports bar too!
i was actually born in new york, did my career in Oklahoma and now live in miami, lol
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I think the cOC of 94L is around 11.6N/48.3W, jmo.
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Quoting Dakster:
Acemmet - you didn't get the joke.. "SOONER" or later, they all come back to Miami.. He was from Oklahoma... And you work/own a sports bar too!
i was actually born in new york, did my career in Oklahoma and now live in miami, lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i spy a pine hole eye in 94L


...ah...That's my boy!
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971. Patrap
Thanks Pat.

I have as much trouble interpreting these sat images, as I would interpreting an x-ray film.
The obvious, I see. The nuances, go right by me.


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There's something interesting in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Taz - What's a pine hole?
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94L has reached TD Status in my Mind as I note the NE Quad Blooming T-storms Like popcorn at the Matinee.Good Outflow and banding,as well.

Shes gearing up as that Big Circ tightens some.


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First time I am seeing banding right near the supposed center of 94L and if this is indeed the case then the center of circulation is becoming better defined.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

dont say florida on this blog it tend to start chaos
haha, i know, lol
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i spy a pine hole eye in 94L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
possible center near 47w 12N?
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Acemmet - you didn't get the joke.. "SOONER" or later, they all come back to Miami.. He was from Oklahoma... And you work/own a sports bar too!
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Quoting Weather456:


nope

Remember 2007 Barry which never came TD 2. But the advisories for Chantal started with TD 3.


My bad, my bad
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Quoting Acemmett90:

Me etheir does anyone know the shear in the gom


that is interesting too...
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
920. Patrap
Can see clouds going one way and clouds beneath those going another way. I think (not sure) the upper clouds are going towards the northeast, and the lower clouds going towards the southwest. Would the upper clouds be part of the anticyclone??
Or am I just seeing 94l's movement relative to the region?

I hope this makes sense LOL


The WV shows it all easier..

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Quoting Acemmett90:

Me etheir does anyone know the shear in the gom
It is a dragging end to a trough, it is possible that it could become another Claudette, and possibly affect the western coast of Florida.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


Nice I'm a freshmen at the U (Miami) pursuing the same thing.


oh awesome!
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Quoting canesrule1:
wow! good for him. I used to go on hurricane hunter missions, they were very very fun, and u could feel the adrenaline pumping through your veins.


oh i bet that would be amazing
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Quoting canesrule1:
I have a Ph.D in Meteorology and tropical meteorology from the university of Oklahoma, and i doubt right now that 94L will affect the CONUS, i could be wrong, but for right now im not anticipating a CONUS landfall.

Given your background, maybe you can insure that it doesn't rain in Tallahassee a week from tomorrow so your Canes don't have any excuses when my Noles pound them to mush.
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Quoting unf97:
The SW Caribbean disturbance is looking a bit more interesting to me this afternoon. If the convection contines to persist in that region, that will raise my curiosity in the short term. We just have to observe and see what may transpire there, if anything.


Yeah, that blob does look interesting...
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Quoting tornadodude:


Thanks! my friend andrew just graduated from here this year and was selected to go on Vortex, he had a blast
wow! good for him. I used to go on hurricane hunter missions, they were very very fun, and u could feel the adrenaline pumping through your veins.
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920. Patrap
Can see clouds going one way and clouds beneath those going another way. I think (not sure) the upper clouds are going towards the northeast, and the lower clouds going towards the southwest. Would the upper clouds be part of the anticyclone??
Or am I just seeing 94l's movement relative to the region?

I hope this makes sense LOL


EDITED: Might help if I post the image again.
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Sooner or later, they all come back to Miami...
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Acemett - THAT'S TAZ's line!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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