Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Post 1045, Tazmanian.

I would delete that post, i did that once and got a 48 hour ban, and with the way the tropical Atlantic is heating up, i would not think this is the best time to be banned.
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Also, my hurricane tracking program counts 35 named storms passing within 100 miles of 94L's current location. Some of the more notable ones?

Emily, Ivan, Frederick, David, Allen, Lili, Dora, Charlie of '51.

Looks like most that passed through here went on to impact the Lesser Antilles. Around 7 of them - about 20% - stayed NE of the islands, but only three of them went on to impact other parts of the basin: Dora, hitting the JAX area; a 1947 storm that impacted the Northern Bahamas, Florida, and the LA coast; and a 1936 storm that paralled the US coast but never made landfall.

So based on climatology, and given that we still have a relatively weak system, I think the Leewards should brace themselves for at least a rainy day or two in the midweek. And maybe even some of the Windwards, at this rate (though this seems much less likely to me based on some other things).
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1054. IKE
12Z NOGAPS takes.....94L north of the islands and on a path similar to Bill after that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Invest 94 looking very nice this afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see a TD by this evening. Nice outflow and banding features already.
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1051. Dakster
Anywhere between South America and off the coast of Newfoundland. Quite a large spread.
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Quoting ackee:
agree where do u think its currently moveing

West to slightly north of due, but defnitely not wnw, imo. I think the system is reorganizing its COC close to the deepest convection, jmo.
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Quoting serialteg:


lol. they go from Low, to High, to Medium... hehe
It is still shaded red
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.
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Looks to be squashed due to the shear to its northwest quadrant, even though there is an anticyclone placed over it.

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1035. Tazmanian

Normally within an hour after 18Z, 2 PM EDT, 11 AM PDT
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10922
Gosh

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS




lol. they go from Low, to High, to Medium... hehe
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Quoting canesrule1:
It is currently moving in the westward direction and could be bringing precipitation to the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi coasts. And could ultimately affect western Florida by the middle to end of next week.


uh oh!! you said the "F" word
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1039. Dakster
Quoting AllStar17:
Enough TWO's


hey I deleted mine, but it was still posted "T.W.O." many times.
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Quoting Weather456:
the area in the GOM is being sustain by diffluence aloft coming from Jimena outflow. I dont think its much.
It is currently moving in the westward direction and could be bringing precipitation to the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi coasts. And could ultimately affect western Florida by the middle to end of next week.
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what time dos this update and how march longer will we see it updated


000
WHXX01 KMIA 301244
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009) 20090830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 1200 090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 121.9W 15.0N 122.2W 15.1N 122.2W 15.2N 122.2W
BAMD 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.1N 121.2W 16.4N 120.3W
BAMM 14.5N 121.9W 15.5N 121.7W 16.2N 121.0W 16.8N 120.1W
LBAR 14.5N 121.9W 15.4N 121.9W 16.5N 121.9W 17.7N 122.0W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 41KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 1200 090902 1200 090903 1200 090904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 122.2W 15.6N 121.8W 14.5N 123.3W 13.6N 125.7W
BAMD 16.5N 119.6W 16.4N 120.6W 16.3N 124.9W 15.8N 130.7W
BAMM 17.2N 119.4W 17.7N 119.8W 18.2N 122.8W 18.1N 127.0W
LBAR 18.9N 122.3W 22.4N 123.8W 27.4N 125.1W 30.8N 120.3W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 121.9W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 122.1W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 121.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
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1034. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


lol Iky, you are going too far this time.


All I said was it isn't going to hit the US of A. That's my opinion.


Quoting TampaSpin:


Tell us WHY your so confident of this.


Too much persistent troughiness in the eastern USA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Enough TWO's
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting Acemmett90:

is it change we can belive in lol


good one!
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how do you change avatar pic?
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is there a program to follow the Hurricane Hunters on google earth fly in to hurricane Jimena in the pacific ocean
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2pm this came out
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1025. hydrus
Quoting iceman55:
Weather456 .best model for 94l is bams
Ice,please tell me where can I find that BAM model.
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i'll do it too

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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1023. Dakster
Canesrule- LOL you beat me by seconds!
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1022. Dakster
Comment Deleted - Info already posted.
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ughhh, they beat me! lol
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1020. Dakster
I get the entier NHC web page, but the 2pm is not out for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS


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the area in the GOM is being sustain by diffluence aloft coming from Jimena outflow. I dont think its much.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
stormpetrol: That sounds right!
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1016. Dakster
Born and Raised in Miami. Graduated University of Miami after 4 years. Still live here. I guess I do bleed Orange and Green.

We will have to see what happens this season. I hope the models for the High building in don't pan out. Watching 94L get organized - DMAX could be the makings of a TD! Then maybe some good model runs will come out.
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1015. 789
uh o 2 latter than normal
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1014. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
is the nhc working for any one or updateing at all??


No update yet. Their webpage won't download all the way either.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I agree, Pat. 94L still looking very decent, despite the waning CENTRAL convection. However, thunderstorms continue to pop on the outflow channels....some signs of a developing storm.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
TPC/TAFB 72 hour Wind/Wave Forecast


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10922
Wouldn't surprise me if the area in the gulf was hilighted in yellow.
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is the nhc working for any one or updateing at all??
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1008. juniort
I see the leading edge of the clouds asociated with 94L staring to come in on barbados
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.