Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1065 Nice.

Yay, cold front:

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1106. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:

West to slightly north of due, but defnitely not wnw, imo. I think the system is reorganizing its COC close to the deepest convection, jmo.
thanks guess we seeing the same thing
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1103. Patrap
94L Ch-3 WV False Color Image,LARGE
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Quoting Drakoen:
94L is moving to the WNW per the latest NHC update and satellite imagert
i agree
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
For some reason my instinct says if 94L develops, it will be a bit west of Bill but only west enough to be a threat for Cape Cod and the OBX. This year has been so troughy I'll need some real convincing to take seriously any threat from SC southwards. But a storm forming in the Caribbean or the Gulf is another story.
shhhh...reedzone may be listening.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
What do you mean go to medium Serial?


I'm talking about how they constantly go from one end to the other. I know it's red.
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1099. Drakoen
94L is moving to the WNW per the latest NHC update and satellite imagert
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting Acemmett90:

td at 8


At 5pm
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1096. Drakoen
94L is becoming stretched out if it keeps stretching it will verify the GFS in terms of organization.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting AllStar17:


One more hefty burst of convection over the center should propel this system to Tropical Depression status.
possible
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1093. Patrap
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)
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hmm
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94L moving west

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1090. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Drakoen, what about all that southwesterly shear ahead of 94L?


Upper level high expected to move with the system
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But wow, all that southwesterly shear right ahead of 94L. I'm not sure 94L will develop at all....


I agree with you. It looks to me that the shear is chopping off the west side looking at water vapor. The center is moving in that direction.
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Quoting Patrap:
..Cue the Jaws Music..



One more hefty burst of convection over the center should propel this system to Tropical Depression status.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1087. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO 17N45W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N46W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WHICH
STILL APPEARED TO BE ELONGATED ALONG A SSW TO NNE AXIS. BUOY
41041 REPORTED A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SSE AT 1300 UTC
WHICH SUPPORTED THE EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED
TO THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE THROUGH 10N49W-13N49W-15N47W-17N45W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THE CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS HAS
BEEN ELEVATED TO HIGH.


I agree, it looks elongated.
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1085. Patrap
94L Low Cloud Product,Loop
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Quoting Weather456:
The mets here are calling for squally weather in the islands in 2-3 days. 94L seems to affect the local area.
Yes, and since 94L is a large and elongated system it will bring squally weather to a larger area. The northern Antilles and Virgin island should monitor the progress of this system and they will probably get rain and wind in 48 to 72 hours. Im out. Good Afternoon!
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deleted
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1081. IKE
Long-term from Miami,FL. afternoon discussion...

"IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE N
GREAT PLAINS DIVES SE INTO THE E COAST TROUGH...DEEPENING THE TROUGH
AGAIN.
THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE SE RE-ESTABLISHING THE SW FLOW
OVER S FLA THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE LOW LEVELS...AN INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE SW N ATLC WILL MOVE TOWARD S FLA...MERGING THIS TROUGH
WITH A WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE E U.S. COAST THAT EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLA PENINSULA. BEING ON THE S SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH MEANS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
S FLA...FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND E."
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1080. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO 17N45W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N46W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WHICH
STILL APPEARED TO BE ELONGATED ALONG A SSW TO NNE AXIS. BUOY
41041 REPORTED A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SSE AT 1300 UTC
WHICH SUPPORTED THE EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED
TO THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE THROUGH 10N49W-13N49W-15N47W-17N45W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THE CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS HAS
BEEN ELEVATED TO HIGH.
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Quoting btwntx08:

hey said no more two's btw just post one thats it



i have update to that commet Please re move your that you this posted
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If you are saying 94L does not look terribly good....Tropical Depressions do not have to look pretty.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Acorna:
Heh, that NC track would take it right over me. That's a hell of a cone of error, though. When will the models get a better handle on 94L?


Those are not models, those are 94L's top 10 analog tracks. those are past storms that passed very similiar to 94L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1073. Drakoen
I have 94L at 12.6N 47.5W
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting Vero1:
I agree with that surface analysis 100% but after that period it is very uncertain where this will end up. And with that I'm out. Have a good afternoon everyone! I will be checking back in later this evening.
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1071. Patrap
..Cue the Jaws Music..

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That's what we got alright alot of Pretty Huffy Dudes.

Keep up the good work!
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The mets here are calling for squally weather in the islands in 2-3 days. 94L seems to affect the local area.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting canesrule1:
Post 1045, Tazmanian.

I would delete that post, i did that once and got a 48 hour ban, and with the way the tropical Atlantic is heating up, i would not think this is the best time to be banned.



its been done
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1064. Acorna
Quoting Weather456:
Gosh

Heh, that NC track would take it right over me. That's a hell of a cone of error, though. When will the models get a better handle on 94L?
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1063. Gorty
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You have a link to a specific storm and time (AL92 12Z). Use the General Link and then select the latest data.


Thanks for the link!
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Quoting Dakster:
Anywhere between South America and off the coast of Newfoundland. Quite a large spread.
And what is bad is that the "F" word is right in the canter of this 3000+ mile cone.
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1061. Vero1
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1060. IKE
30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1035. Tazmanian

Normally within an hour after 18Z, 2 PM EDT, 11 AM PDT



ok
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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