Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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2245UTC(6:45PM EDT)
33.2N 139.9E
10min Winds:70 MPH
Moving N at 12 MPH
Pressure: 975 MB
Some good observations, but many were trying to say it was an open wave last night too. We'll see.
It's solid, but the low is actually more to the north now. You can see that in the turning and the vorticity maps.
You can see a bigger picture with this image
I don't like them, but these are Microsoft Office 2003 graphics, as opposed to the 2007 ones I have been making and posting. My computer is being used, so I can not make 2007 graphics....and for the time being I have to use 2003 to generate graphics.........I don't like them, but at least it is something.
HURRICANE JIMENA 5 pm EDT Advisory Storm Track:
ALL INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JIMENA. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
Porto is correct Portuguese. It was Portuguese for much of its existence.
Moving wnw
i will be red or orange at 8pm
Ok thanks.
Is this what you are referring to?
and
this?
Looking pathetic ATM
Oh...come on! Then what did it look like last night? How many times will it take a disturbance to lose convection during DMIN, only to make a large comeback during DMAX to nail that fact through your head?
GFS-based SHIPS still keeps low shear over it...anticyclone looks to keep it safe.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE
Looking at that trough and high, we may end up seeing only enough lifting to move it past the Antilles.
Hey I am not a RIP force member lol. I am just saying it's looking very bad at the moment... and I am sightly pissed because my forecast was for it to become a TD tonight and it's nowhere near that status =P. It could mount a comeback tomorrow, let's see how it makes use of DMAX.
No....no...no, CCHS!!! Remember it is looking very bad ATM according to some....LOL!
Thank you NRT. :) This will probably be wrong but I'll give it a shot. It looks like the highs are meeting with a weakness over the Bahamas?
Ah ok. Thanks. :)
lol, how do you think they feel in Aruba?
Krovanh seem to have an eye (or eye-like feature) after it reached it's peak.
And:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT
That can't be good...
It is not as far away from TD status as you think
That shear is due to the upper level anticyclone protecting Invest 94L and its interaction with an upper level low well to the north. Invest 94L will never encounter this shear as the upper-level anticyclone will be moving in tandem with the system.
That weakness near the Bahamas is 94L.
my extact words
How about we take the smallest island and put all of them on it and take away all the boats and planes so they can't come off...lol
Correct....do you ultimately think this WILL form?
Convection is weak though, especially over the center. NHC always looks forward to that so that's the reason I think they won't be naming it tonight. My forecast has been butchered.. DAAARN YOU MOTHERNATURE!!
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