Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1158 - 1108

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Weather456, no doubt that your going to get rain and squally weather in the next 3-5 days. I mean look how stretched out 94L is, it can take all of the Antilles at once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. Patrap


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Wow thanks Vero for stretching the blog with that

You still use Inept Explorer? Wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOAA's Tropical Position Page

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormsurge39:
BAMM Shallow has been the best performing model so far on 94L and it puts it right on the N ilands in 4 to 5 days.
we need a bamm model on here please. i dont see what you are looking at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hate to say this, but I think you hit the nail on the head so to speak, lmao!


come west, i want rain :).....but then again, go north i can't handle flood...
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Quoting stormsurge39:
BAMM Shallow has been the best performing model so far on 94L and it puts it right on the N ilands in 4 to 5 days.

That only works if it stays as developed as it is now or less.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
456, Do you think it can make it past the wind shear from ULL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1148. Drakoen
cimss would suggest a center between 13n-14n but i'd rather not go that far for now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1147. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, the 1947 hurricane is the "famous" Fort Lauderdale / Pompano hurricane.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21147
The season:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1144. Drakoen
Quoting Vero1:


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 43.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


That is old
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Where I see the most cyclonic curvature and rotation is also very close to the satellite estimate.


yep
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting ricderr:
too funny...a system moves northwest..and the westcasters wish west...a sustem moves west..and the northcasters wish north....if wishes could move hurricanes...the conus would get hit everytime

Hate to say this, but I think you hit the nail on the head so to speak, lmao!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. Drakoen
The 850mb vorticity is well north of 10N according to CIMSS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1140. Vero1
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Looks WNW to me, can someone who is saying due west give me a good piece of evidence showing due west.


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 43.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BAMM Shallow has been the best performing model so far on 94L and it puts it right on the N ilands in 4 to 5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:

Finally looks like 94L has a closed COC!! Looks like slow development will continue!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


That is just a satellite estimate


Where I see the most cyclonic curvature and rotation is also very close to the satellite estimate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If convection persists until next DMAX then it could very well be a TD, and it is not making that NW turn so it will stay below most of the high shear for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Satellite imagery, satellite derived winds, MIMIC-TPW, Microwave imagery, and surface observations


Appreciate it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
there isn't a leaf shaking on a tree here... but some pretty clouds to the east of us now showing up
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1132. ricderr
too funny...a system moves northwest..and the westcasters wish west...a sustem moves west..and the northcasters wish north....if wishes could move hurricanes...the conus would get hit everytime
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1131. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anyone can look on the Satelite imagery loops and see that 94L has commence a westward again for the past few hours, blind man can see that, if not they're in denial imo.
agree some poeple only see what the models are showing and it is just not happening
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1130. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


What is your estimate based upon ?


Satellite imagery, satellite derived winds, MIMIC-TPW, Microwave imagery, and surface observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Day 7 Surface Forecast


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10834
Quoting Drakoen:


That is just a satellite estimate


What is your estimate based upon ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. Vero1
Sun Aug 30 14:04:52 EDT 2009
WHXX01 KWBC 301232

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 1200 090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 46.3W 13.4N 48.8W 14.7N 51.2W 15.9N 53.3W
BAMD 11.8N 46.3W 12.9N 48.6W 14.0N 50.8W 14.8N 52.7W
BAMM 11.8N 46.3W 12.9N 48.7W 14.0N 50.9W 14.8N 52.8W
LBAR 11.8N 46.3W 13.0N 48.7W 14.2N 51.0W 15.0N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 1200 090902 1200 090903 1200 090904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 55.0W 17.7N 57.8W 18.8N 60.6W 19.8N 63.7W
BAMD 15.4N 54.4W 16.0N 57.4W 16.7N 60.3W 17.7N 63.4W
BAMM 15.2N 54.3W 15.5N 57.1W 16.0N 60.0W 16.7N 63.6W
LBAR 15.6N 55.1W 16.2N 58.4W 16.9N 61.5W 18.5N 64.2W
SHIP 58KTS 77KTS 85KTS 86KTS
DSHP 58KTS 77KTS 85KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


WHXX01 KWBC 300701

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0701 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 0600 090830 1800 090831 0600 090831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 45.1W 12.6N 47.6W 14.0N 49.9W 15.2N 52.1W
BAMD 11.2N 45.1W 12.4N 47.4W 13.6N 49.4W 14.5N 51.1W
BAMM 11.2N 45.1W 12.4N 47.5W 13.6N 49.7W 14.6N 51.5W
LBAR 11.2N 45.1W 12.1N 47.8W 13.2N 50.4W 14.2N 52.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 0600 090902 0600 090903 0600 090904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 53.8W 17.3N 56.5W 18.4N 58.9W 19.3N 61.5W
BAMD 15.1N 52.7W 15.7N 55.5W 16.5N 58.5W 17.6N 61.4W
BAMM 15.1N 53.0W 15.6N 55.6W 16.1N 58.2W 16.5N 61.4W
LBAR 15.0N 54.9W 15.8N 58.5W 16.5N 61.5W 17.7N 63.8W
SHIP 55KTS 74KTS 84KTS 86KTS
DSHP 55KTS 74KTS 84KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 300024

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 0000 090830 1200 090831 0000 090831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 43.4W 12.0N 45.5W 13.5N 47.6W 14.5N 49.5W
BAMD 10.7N 43.4W 11.9N 45.6W 13.3N 47.6W 14.3N 49.2W
BAMM 10.7N 43.4W 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 47.8W 13.8N 49.6W
LBAR 10.7N 43.4W 11.6N 46.1W 12.7N 48.8W 13.7N 51.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 0000 090902 0000 090903 0000 090904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 51.2W 16.7N 54.1W 17.8N 56.6W 18.9N 59.5W
BAMD 15.0N 50.6W 15.6N 53.4W 16.3N 56.6W 17.1N 59.6W
BAMM 14.4N 51.2W 15.0N 53.9W 15.5N 56.8W 16.0N 60.0W
LBAR 14.5N 53.6W 15.3N 57.4W 15.9N 60.6W 16.9N 63.3W
SHIP 57KTS 76KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 57KTS 76KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 43.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

lol


haha its bound to go somewhere in that cone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isnt the COC EXPOSED to the upcoming wind shear?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Almost at 50W, still has not pass 12N since its moving a little north of due west

That NW aint happening until another 1-2 days like many have been saying



I still stand by an entry into the Caribbean near 16N. WNW to NW would need to happen now just to graze the islands IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Staring down the face of a monster

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1118. Drakoen
Quoting btwntx08:

they say
30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L


That is just a satellite estimate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1117. Relix
Quoting Weather456:
94L moving west

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L


Not good at all. Getting closer.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Anyone can look on the Satelite imagery loops and see that 94L has commence a westward again for the past few hours, blind man can see that, if not they're in denial imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Almost at 50W, still has not pass 12N since its moving a little north of due west

That NW aint happen until another 1-2 days like many have been saying

is that Bastardi I see on one of those islands ???
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Isnt the ULL going to keep 94L from developing into a strong system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

td at 8



nop this be come it says T # 1.5 dos not mean it will be come a TD at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Almost at 50W, still has not pass 12N since its moving a little north of due west

That NW aint happening until another 1-2 days like many have been saying

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1109. flsky
Quoting Funkadelic:
Canesrule1, You are from University of Oklahoma but a canes fan? And if you have a phd in this stuff why are you on WU blogs?????

Something dont add up brotha.


You noticed that too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065 Nice.

Yay, cold front:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1158 - 1108

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
76 °F
Scattered Clouds