Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting atmoaggie:

You still use Inept Explorer? Wow.


Funny. Never heard that one before.
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Drak is right. I've seen two main vortices. Some of the current outflow on satellite seems to be farther west, although it could be the angle of the sun on the clouds.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1206. Hhunter


purple spot i see possible swirl...
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1204. Hhunter
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1203. IKE
Stretched out, like taking a rubber-band and pulling it in left-right directions.....


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1201. Drakoen
There could easily be 2 vortices associate with the system as the GFS suggest could happen with a southern piece and a northern piece.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
Isnt the N bias based on how much the storm srengthens? Also doesnt it go back west regardless how much it goes N ?
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Stormchaser: Is that your center?


No, that map is from CIMSS and thats where they have the center.
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1198. KBH
here is the outlook from B'dos
Grantley Adams, Barbados (Airport)
Partly Cloudy
31 °C
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 32 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1011 hPa
Visibility: 60.0 kilometers
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 540 m
Mostly Cloudy 9000 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 50 m
initial clouds ahead of 94L now approaching with some increase in winds
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1197. Patrap
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Patrap: Do you have 11.5N and 48.2W?




I like to use the 94L Floater RGB Java Loop for trying to find a center


Just click and highlite the Lat and Lon Box
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Patrap: Do you have 11.5N and 48.2W?


I would agree with that
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15776
Center looks to be at 11.8, 47.4, tightening up, building convection, and moving WWNW. Look for a TD at 5.
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Stormchaser: Is that your center?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Actually some of use use cell phones occasionally to view the blog, and a cell phone browser may size all images relative to the largest one on the page. So if someone posts a huge image, the smaller ones become unreadable or unviewable. Just been my experience. By the way IE7 and IE8 auto size this blog; IE6 does not. Not to state that Firefox, Safari, Opera, and others are not good browsers. I'm glad we all have choices.

Huh. What browser is that? (so I can be sure to never do use it) My blackberry makes every pic larger than the page width, that size. Never had a problem.
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1190. Hhunter
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Quoting AllStar17:


...followed by a turn more to the WNW or W at the end of the period


towards florida? is that what the steering patterns are showing? and at what intensity?
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First Rain Just Started To Fall....
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Quoting Patrap:
12Z Dynamic Model Suite all show a North Bias..





...followed by a turn more to the WNW or W at the end of the period
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5301
Patrap: Do you have 11.5N and 48.2W?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Close up visible.

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Quoting Patrap:
12Z Dynamic Model Suite all show a North Bias..




basically they are showing they are coming towards florida? what are the long range models showing? is there gonna be something that will build in and push it towards florida?

what do you guys think of this system strength wise? tia
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1183. raggpr
Tonight is going to be the birth of our new TD! I have been saying all day that by 11 p.m. we will have TD, but now I will go for 5 a.m. 94L is just preparing its own enviroment today. Tonight she will be ready to start intensification.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

You still use Inept Explorer? Wow.
Actually some of use use cell phones occasionally to view the blog, and a cell phone browser may size all images relative to the largest one on the page. So if someone posts a huge image, the smaller ones become unreadable or unviewable. Just been my experience. By the way IE7 and IE8 auto size this blog; IE6 does not. Not to state that Firefox, Safari, Opera, and others are not good browsers. I'm glad we all have choices.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1265
As an islander I'm now asking for intensity forecasts rather than direction/path. Can't see that bad girl swinging that quickly N to miss us. I'm with you 456....still looks like W movement only. What's your call on strength WHEN she gets into the chain?
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
94L does still have good structure....also...

Danny was NOT vertically stacked...so storms can develop without being vertically stacked.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5301
anything to worry about in the GOM or BOC right now. a couple of good storms there
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Quoting Acemmett90:

were you bored

Not mine: http://xkcd.com/453/
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1176. Patrap
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Quoting futurenavymet:
we need a bamm model on here please. i dont see what you are looking at.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/closeup.htm
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
another us dodged bullet, drak? THANK GOD.
I think I hear your RA calling you :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
I have 11.5N and 48.2W.
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1172. Patrap
12Z Dynamic Model Suite all show a North Bias..



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Quoting stormsurge39:
BAMM Shallow has been the best performing model so far on 94L and it puts it right on the N ilands in 4 to 5 days.
Are you saying the BAMS or BAMM ? The three BAMs are BAMS, BAMM and BAMD (for systems that are shallow, medium and deep). And yes, with an undeveloped system the BAMs will be the best "performers" for now. Until there is further development I would not put much, if any, credence into the late models.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1170. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


That would not be consistent with satellite imagery, unless the most pronounced rotation on satellite is in the mid-levels.


I do not see a well-defined circulation on 94L as the curvature of the axis is extending. The system is broad. The cimss 850mb product is a the top of the lower levels and picks up on fluid rotation like MIMIC-TPW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, Do you think it can make it past the wind shear from ULL?


I've that that wall of shear maybe a product of the anticyclone over 94L interacting the pearls of upper lows (TUTT). The wall of shear maybe more beneficial that derimental to 94L aiding in outflow. If it moves in tadem with the upper high then I dont see it affecting 94L much.

Interesting to note from CrownWX

Based on the fact that shear directly to the north of 94L may actually be creating a outflow channel for it and also the fact that 94L is becoming better and better organized with each passing hour, I have every reason to think that this system will steadily intensify this week.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good afternoon...

Looks like 94Ls recent burst of organization was due to a lift out of the ITCZ.

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Quoting kmanislander:
94L does not appear to be vertically stacked. The 850 vort is off to the NE of the area of lowest surface pressure.


That would explain the elongated appearance.
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1166. Nimitz
Quoting Patrap:
94L Ch-3 WV False Color Image,LARGE


Thanks for the leemer, Pat...
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1165. Patrap



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1007 mb pressure @ 11N and 46W..........give or take. Elongated.
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94L does not appear to be vertically stacked. The 850 vort is off to the NE of the area of lowest surface pressure.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15776
Quoting Drakoen:
cimss would suggest a center between 13n-14n but i'd rather not go that far for now


That would not be consistent with satellite imagery, unless the most pronounced rotation on satellite is in the mid-levels.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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