Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1256. hydrus
Quoting kingzfan104:

basically they are showing they are coming towards florida? what are the long range models showing? is there gonna be something that will build in and push it towards florida?

what do you guys think of this system strength wise? tia
We have a week watch this situation king,dont start stressing out.The people here will help you stay informed.If this system reaches the south central Bahama Islands,then you might start thinking about preparing.I dont know where your located,but if you are from florida or have lived there awhile you are probably up to speed on how to prepare.:)
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DURING THIS TIME...
A SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EDGE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE. WHAT WILL RESULT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD
SHOULD BE RIDGING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE REACHING
THE MID MS VLY AND BASICALLY BECOME STATIONARY
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2009083018 BEST 0 121N 475W 25 1007 DB



what dos DB mean???
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Thanks everybody for answering questions in here. I can read and understand easy things, but its hard to me to understand steering maps and wind sheer.
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Quoting Barbados:
It is sweltering here at the moment. 94L please come west as a strong wave to give us an ease in these conditions.



you'll get an ease in a few hours, maybe less i guess...trinidad already getting scattered showers.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
Quoting LightningCharmer:
With respect. That was kind of my point. If the image is larger than the browser width, then the user has to scroll left and right. If the image is auto-sized to the browser width then some of the large images will become unreadable. Thirdly, if all images are reduced relative to the largest image size then some of the smaller images will become unreadable.

On a computer, we all have choices on which browser to use but on PDA's, cell phones, etc. the choices if they exist are limited. Opera for PDA's and cell phones works rather well with this blog. Some other browers do not.

Lastly, this really isn't a discussion for this blog other than to let users know, if you're having trouble viewing this blog examine other browsers or possibly upgrade the browser you are using.

Sorry if I confused the issue.

Now back to my late lunch.


I had to put orcasystems on ignore because his maps were too big, meaning I had to scroll right to see all the other posts on the page.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
I see 12.0N and 47.5W now. That seems to be where the storms are starting.
thanks, it is always difficult to find the center with my untrained eyes in a blob like that.
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000
WHXX01 KWBC 301902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090830 1800 090831 0600 090831 1800 090901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 47.5W 13.7N 49.9W 15.2N 52.2W 16.3N 54.0W
BAMD 12.1N 47.5W 13.2N 49.8W 14.2N 51.8W 14.9N 53.5W
BAMM 12.1N 47.5W 13.2N 49.8W 14.2N 51.8W 14.9N 53.5W
LBAR 12.1N 47.5W 13.2N 49.6W 14.3N 51.8W 15.0N 53.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090901 1800 090902 1800 090903 1800 090904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 55.4W 18.2N 58.0W 19.0N 60.4W 20.0N 63.3W
BAMD 15.3N 55.0W 15.6N 58.0W 16.2N 61.4W 17.3N 64.8W
BAMM 15.3N 54.9W 15.6N 57.4W 16.1N 60.3W 16.7N 63.6W
LBAR 15.5N 55.8W 15.9N 59.6W 17.0N 63.3W 18.5N 66.4W
SHIP 56KTS 74KTS 84KTS 90KTS
DSHP 56KTS 74KTS 84KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 47.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 45.1W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 42.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0N
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Gracias! Thanks!
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Why is there a brake in the high? Thank you for answering my questions?


upper trough
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
AL 94 2009083018 BEST 0 121N 475W 25 1007 DB
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
Quoting Weather456:
It does not appear 94L is being stretched out....rather little thunderstorms in and around the circulation indicate its ready to develop again


Agreed. You and I see the same thing, Dr.
I don't know what the other doctors are looking at.
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1243. IKE
12ECMWF ...nothing much on 94L...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1241. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Look at Patraps post 1209 and look N of 94L! Looks like a ULL.


I see that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thank you all for helping explain this to me.....I am very interested and want to learn as much as I can about the tropical disturbances....:)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Huh. What browser is that? (so I can be sure to never do use it) My blackberry makes every pic larger than the page width, that size. Never had a problem.
With respect. That was kind of my point. If the image is larger than the browser width, then the user has to scroll left and right. If the image is auto-sized to the browser width then some of the large images will become unreadable. Thirdly, if all images are reduced relative to the largest image size then some of the smaller images will become unreadable.

On a computer, we all have choices on which browser to use but on PDA's, cell phones, etc. the choices if they exist are limited. Opera for PDA's and cell phones works rather well with this blog. Some other browers do not.

Lastly, this really isn't a discussion for this blog other than to let users know, if you're having trouble viewing this blog examine other browsers or possibly upgrade the browser you are using.

Sorry if I confused the issue.

Now back to my late lunch.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
It is sweltering here at the moment. 94L please come west as a strong wave to give us an ease in these conditions.
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
the shear seems to be droping out..the system look like slowing it speed?..that very bad for us in the antilles...




This is a good link that shows the current wind shear amounts

and

Here you can see the tendency, is it rising or falling. So as you can see the shear where 94L is is falling, and so is it out ahead too, but after that it seems to be increasing. Not that it can't change, but that's what it is now.

Also, looking at the first link I gave you, you can see where 94L is there is a little bit of an anticyclone.
Quoting AllStar17:


martin county and up imo
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I see 12.0N and 47.5W now. That seems to be where the storms are starting.
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Quoting Weather456:


I do not think it will get into the GOM.
Why is there a brake in the high? Thank you for answering my questions?
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Quoting tornadodude:



i would want too re move that or you may get a 95hr ban
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Quoting KBH:
Storm, does the wind shear arrows = wind direction?


Correct...they show direction.
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Quoting Weather456:
It does not appear 94L is being stretched out....rather little thunderstorms in and around the circulation indicate its ready to develop again



This may become a TD if that is the case later today / tonight
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure. That's a good guess though.
Look at Patraps post 1209 and look N of 94L! Looks like a ULL.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
What part of FL.?

Too early to tell.


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 Does the high build in strong enough, if 94L developes, to steer it into the GOM?


I do not think it will get into the GOM.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
It does not appear 94L is being stretched out....rather little thunderstorms in and around the circulation indicate its ready to develop again

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1224. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is that wind shear from the ULL?


I'm not sure. That's a good guess though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Eagle300:
Is 94L in DMIN right now?


Yes
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
the shear seems to be droping out..the system look like slowing it speed?..that very bad for us in the antilles...


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what are the current coordinates for 94?
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456 Does the high build in strong enough, if 94L developes, to steer it into the GOM?
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1218. KBH
Storm, does the wind shear arrows = wind direction?
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Is 94L in DMIN right now?
1216. Patrap
18Z not loaded here yet,usually..1-2 Hours Post Z hour they come out
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Your early. They did the Pacific storms first.

With good reason, if it was intentional...

back L8R
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Quoting AllStar17:


Too early to tell....but that is what early model indications are.
What part of FL.?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Anyone finding 18 Z track models yet? I see 12 Z everywhere I look.
Currently 18:50. (Am I early?


Your early. They did the Pacific storms first.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
Quoting kingzfan104:


towards florida? is that what the steering patterns are showing? and at what intensity?


Too early to tell....but that is what early model indications are.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Anyone finding 18 Z track models yet? I see 12 Z everywhere I look.
Currently 18:50. (Am I early?
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Quoting IKE:
Stretched out, like taking a rubber-band and pulling it in left-right directions.....


Is that wind shear from the ULL?
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1209. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting atmoaggie:

You still use Inept Explorer? Wow.


Funny. Never heard that one before.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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