Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Quoting JLPR:


yep and I lived through that, Georges is the reason im here


Same here, though I remember Hugo just as well.

Edited: My avatar is Georges just as it was about to hit Puerto Rico. You bet I still remember that hurricane vividly. :-s
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
THIS STORM IS UGLY LOOKING...NO BIG T.STORM WITH HIS STORM AT ALL. TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALL AROUND THIS STORM..ITS GETTING WEAK AND MORE WEAK BY THE HOURS..



dont need to ues the caps
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
THIS STORM IS UGLY LOOKING...NO BIG T.STORM WITH HIS STORM AT ALL. TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALL AROUND THIS STORM..ITS GETTING WEAK AND MORE WEAK BY THE HOURS..
youve got it all wrong, very moist. needs to define its LLC and it will tighten up, organize and deepen and build. Alomost all the pieces are in place. Patience.
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3105. JLPR
blog hole?
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3103. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


Did you see the Georges youtube I posted some posts back? It's really nice...



Got some turning over there for a while now in TPW



yep and I lived through that, Georges is the reason im here
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3102. msphar
Wow! Georges! Luquillo is just around the corner from where my boat is moored! Climb girl, Climb! Get North.
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Quoting WunderFul:
Jason -- never saw a hurricane come off the African coast like that. Just kidding, of course, but that is a pretty amazing blast of convection. Another CV storm coming????


Well it is very near the peak of hurricane season. It is possible.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Just did an update tonite here you go.
you need an interactive menu for your blog :)
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Nite all. Looking forward to seeing what 94L & Jimena have in store tomorrow.
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Quoting JLPR:


evening xD


Did you see the Georges youtube I posted some posts back? It's really nice...

Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
WOW..WOW AND MORE WOW...


Got some turning over there for a while now in TPW

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Quoting cirrocumulus:
TampaSpin:
What do you think will happen at 2AM and 8AM with 94L? It seems to be turning into a fairly large storm.
I believe it will lose SOME of that size once it tightens up and organizes around a LLC.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
TampaSpin:
What do you think will happen at 2AM and 8AM with 94L? It seems to be turning into a fairly large storm.


Just did an update tonite here you go.
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3094. JLPR
Quoting WunderFul:
Jason -- never saw a hurricane come off the African coast like that. Just kidding, of course, but that is a pretty amazing blast of convection. Another CV storm coming????


I dont think so the photo he posted is 3, almost 4 hrs old the one I posted is new and as you can see the convection has dissipated so nothing soon
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The wave over Africa that was impressive a day or two ago finally exits Africa later today. We will need to wait and see what happens.
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Jason -- never saw a hurricane come off the African coast like that. Just kidding, of course, but that is a pretty amazing blast of convection. Another CV storm coming????
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TampaSpin:
What do you think will happen at 2AM and 8AM with 94L? It seems to be turning into a fairly large storm.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
WOW..WOW AND MORE WOW...


Man, that is looking like trouble.....hmmmmm
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Quoting stormpetrol:

You might be right though I'm speaking of the Eastern Caribbean, doubt it will make into the central or NW Caribbean though , just west of the Leewards in the Puerto Rico area, , from there well I don't know, in about 24-36 hours we should get a better idea of where this system might be headed though, jmo.
I can go with that but my feeling it will be the northern side of PR. Of course, all "IFs".
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Quoting hunkerdown:
three thousand posts to fill you in...or in a nutshell, still red crayon, slowly trying to organize, track up in the air for now...must watch and wait for organization to best determine track.

Agree, depression status will give model configurations more accurate readings.
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Correct me if I am wrong, 94 appears to be nearly the size of the gulf in the last frame

Big Girlin It
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As large as Jimena appears on satellite, it's intensity covers such a relatively small area. This is from the latest Public Advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

This is no Wilma but why such a difference? Is it only the sea surface temperatures?
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3083. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
As long as that anticyclone is over 94L, those high wind shear winds will not disrupt the center. Seems like 94L is yet again trying to come together. We'll see what happens.. Models look bad for the USA for now, a track towards Florida, but things can change through the days.


Hey there reed. Just took a quick look before heading to trolland. If anything pops up just give me an update to save me time scrolling. Nite all!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
3082. JLPR
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
WOW..WOW AND MORE WOW...


not so wow xD
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
WOW..WOW AND MORE WOW...


Gasp.. plagiarism??
ROFLMAO...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what up what going on with 94L(pre-TD-6)
three thousand posts to fill you in...or in a nutshell, still red crayon, slowly trying to organize, track up in the air for now...must watch and wait for organization to best determine track.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
could be similar but depends on the actual positioning/strength of the ridge and if it stays in place. obviously if another trough comes through it would turn it. All depends on the timing. Yes, a bunch of "IFs".How long until the trough after this one roll in?
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3077. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


JLPR a true STAPLE of the blog.

Evenin'! lol


evening xD
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

Like Georges?
could be similar but depends on the actual positioning/strength of the ridge and if it stays in place. obviously if another trough comes through it would turn it. All depends on the timing. Yes, a bunch of "IFs".
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Quoting JLPR:


the system has created its own environment so dry air is no big deal


JLPR a true STAPLE of the blog.

Evenin'! lol
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I don't see it getting into the Caribbean...through the Fla Straights or brusing N Cuba coast but no further south, just my opinion from "analysis"

You might be right though I'm speaking of the Eastern Caribbean, doubt it will make into the central or NW Caribbean though , just west of the Leewards in the Puerto Rico area, , from there well I don't know, in about 24-36 hours we should get a better idea of where this system might be headed though, jmo.
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flsky -- I'm in lower Michigan. We've had a beautiful fall this summer. ;-)

Any comments on that stalled frontal boundary over the western GOM? Any chance that could develop?
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3071. JLPR
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
TO MUCH DRY AIR AROUND THIS STORM...


the system has created its own environment so dry air is no big deal
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

Like Georges?


Well ... I know you meant trajectory - wise, but ...

I lived thru this, so:



It's probably not going to be like that for us in PR.
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Quoting Patrap:
00 Z Dynamical Model Suite
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


I was worried about this senario popping up , so was Funkadelic.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I can only imagine the deluge of "you were wronged / missed you / welcome back" posts that will pop up when StormW returns.

he does do a great job and is well respected among all here ... but my goodness, how long must we go on and on?

[I would post a pic of the Energizer Bunny here, but you'll have to use your imagination]
Does anyone know the precise moment that StormW is released from the Wunder-holding-tank? Who will be the first to post, "Welcome Back Chief!?" Umm...might want to add the ® symbol after Energizer to play it safe.


Water vapor image appears to be showing convection encircling the center.

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3067. Patrap
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3066. Patrap
00 Z Dynamical Model Suite
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Hi Orcasystems -
Noticed what I guess are your graphics on spaghettimodels.com. Nice site.
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3063. Patrap
00 Z Statistical Model Suite
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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hey guys what up what going on with 94L(pre-TD-6)
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I don't see it getting into the Caribbean...through the Fla Straights or brusing N Cuba coast but no further south, just my opinion from "analysis"

Like Georges?
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Quoting 7544:
*-is that a eye at 12 / 48 Link

check it ouut
AN INVEST DOESN'T HAVE AN EYE...ONLY HURRICANES DO.
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3059. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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the system hasn't been named yet, how does anyone here know if its going to be a Florida storm? It could very well be an EC storm, if it continues on a wnw track. The models even look confused. Lets just be safe to say, people need to watch the progress of this system.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.