Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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1408. Grothar
Quoting flsky:


My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.


If I were he, I would watch quite closely. I am sure you know the location of Cabo San Lucas. While there are some indications, the system could veer away, it is just a little too close for comfort. I am sure the airlines are closely monitoring the system and will give fair warning.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25986
NHC was expecting advisories later today on Jimena.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21883
Quoting Dakster:


If a cyclone doesn't form by the time is gets to the Easter caribbean, it won't form until it gets to the Western Caribbean.. I forgot what the Lattitude that it has to form by. I think it is 50W.
thanks i suspected that was what it meant but i was not certain thanks....
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Very close to the islands..kinda hard to not see it go into the Carribean.

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What are the chances the shear above 94L will feed into its anticyclone?
Link
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thats funny cause i had one hitting houston last yr and i was correct about that one but since im a floridacaster than i was wrong bout tx last yr.
Quoting iceman55:
they high go win 100%
english please
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Quoting futurenavymet:
i bet 20 crows that the high wins lol

LOL!
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

The high is huge and mighty strong, will be interesting to see.
i bet 20 crows that the high wins lol
1396. KBH
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It depends on the time frame and year.








now we're onto something. Each model utilises the same raw data each year to make predictions (I guess sea temp, shear, SAL, TS activity etc) so the reason why each model is inconsistent is because they use the same criteria, regardless to storm cycle..el nino, la nina, etc
Does any model change the raw data based on the particular storm cycle?
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Quoting futurenavymet:
lets just say the high and the trough is fixing to have war with each other

The high is huge and mighty strong, will be interesting to see.
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1394. Grothar
Quoting KBH:
here is a trick question for you, of all the models on your image, which one (over a period of years)has the highest prediction accuarcy, i.e future direction of systems?


Not sure, but I believe the NHC models has outperformed all models with a higher degree of accuracy. I do not want to quote incorrectly, but I believe it may have been in one of Dr. Master's blogs. Like I said, I do not want to misquote, but I am sure I shall be corrected if I am wrong.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25986
1393. JLPR
im expecting a much better d-max for 94L considering the warmer waters it is moving over

So im going to say TD tomorrow
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1392. NARCHER
note the strange stearing pattern off africa next week. normal is waves move west as they cross the coast. next week a nw to nnw steering pattern??????????????
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Quoting serialteg:


fronts pull cyclones up and over (N-NE) and erode the anticyclones that help steer west the tropical cyclones. she may be referring to the trough going over the anticyclone because it is weaker, therefore a more westerly path for 94l.


oh ok. thanks
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1390. Dakster
Presslord - Did we ever get Weather Students detailed analysis of 94L? I had to go cut the lawn and missed some blog entries.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
Quoting flsky:


My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.


tell him its not the smartest move in the world to go to a place where a CAT3-5 hurricane may land - especially if it's for leisure purposes. if he's hunting hurricanes, then by all means
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1388. SLU






Interesting development here with the GFS and GFS Ensemble. Also the BAMM models are showing a bit of a westward turn after a day or so.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

The high is extending westward and looks as though it could scoop the trough upward, but if the high stays where it is then it could by pass the carribean.
lets just say the high and the trough is fixing to have war with each other. i have bets on the high to win anyone else in?
Jimena eye moving west, hopefully, will keep moving west.
LoopShortWave
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1384. centex
Maybe it will be the warmer waters that tips the tide.
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Quoting flsky:


My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.


bad idea...
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


meaning what exactly?


fronts pull cyclones up and over (N-NE) and erode the anticyclones that help steer west the tropical cyclones. she may be referring to the trough going over the anticyclone because it is weaker, therefore a more westerly path for 94l.
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1381. Dakster
Quoting chucky7777:
What is the John Hope Rule??


If a cyclone doesn't form by the time is gets to the Easter caribbean, it won't form until it gets to the Western Caribbean.. I forgot what the Lattitude that it has to form by. I think it is 50W.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
Quoting TexasHurricane:


meaning what exactly?
Quoting TexasHurricane:


meaning what exactly?

The high is extending westward and looks as though it could scoop the trough upward, but if the high stays where it is then it could by pass the carribean.
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1379. centex
Quoting Hhunter:
lots of dry air around 94L is not helping matters much...
Yes that is true but not killer dry air and with some moisture around it just keeping it in steady state.
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Quoting KBH:
Well I was thinking that should be kinda easy, just feed the data into something like SPSS and it would give that degree of accuarcy for each model based on projected and actual paths of systems, just I don't have the data.


NHC does a Forecast Verification Report every year. All of the data would be in those reports, but they have already crunched it for you.
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Quoting Chicklit:

It does appear, though, that 94L is starting to control her own environment.
WatervaporLoop
anticyclone
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Quoting ch2os:
Ok, thanks. Just wondered with such similarities in your name.
oh lol no its ok tho.
1375. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


Of course. Look at the previous blogs. Many of us are very concerned with the Baja region. Jimena is a potent system and according to the latest reports, it may even strengthen further. Very serious situation for many. As usual, people are mostly concerned with their area of the world, therefore the focus is on the Atlantic systems. Very understandable.


My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
1374. ch2os
Ok, thanks. Just wondered with such similarities in your name.
Member Since: August 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
Quoting cycloone:
is anyone paying attention to Jimena?!!??!!


Yes! Everyone living on the western pacific coast of Mexico is paying close attention. Here in La Manzanilla (19.1N/ 104.4W) we've had light rain and overcast skies all day but it looks like Jimena will pass far
enough to the west that we won't feel the brunt of the storm.

Buen suerte, Mazgreg - hope Jimena is long gone before it reaches your latitude.
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Quoting Dakster:
Refresh my memory, when does the John Hope rule apply?
What is the John Hope Rule??
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Quoting truecajun:
how do you change avatar pic?


Why ever would you want to do that to us? ;)
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probably get blasted for this

but what is bastardis take on 94l ???
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Quoting Hhunter:
lots of dry air around 94L is not helping matters much...

It does appear, though, that 94L is starting to control her own environment.
WatervaporLoop
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Quoting centex:
94L is tracking generaly WNW or a little west of that. It's also not organizing, waxing and waning. It is holding a pretty good spin. Not sure what is stopping development at this time but something is, but sometime these things just take time. I'm still thinking carribean because waves track west and looks like will not form TD until close to Lesser Antilles. IMO the low probility is quick intensification and just north of Lesser Antilles.


We got High wind shear waiting to tear it up, if it makes it to the Carib. then it's another story

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Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
I am in the path of Jimena, it's really odd that the Local people doesn't know about the hurricane!


Tropical Storm force wind area is very very small. Until it gets closer, you won't.
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1366. Dakster
Refresh my memory, when does the John Hope rule apply?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
.
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Quoting ch2os:


Are you the kid living in PSL who was under the name of futermet?
nope
Quoting Hhunter:
bastardi does belive jimenez will go more west and miss the baja of california...
then look at Cabo...
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1362. Dakster
GeorgeFromLosCabos - Wierd... You would think it would be all over the TV... This is the critical time to get ready...

Hopefully it misses you, but you never know!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
The NHC must be basing the directional movement off intensity to pull it north, although the the GFS might be the first hint of a storm that soon enters the carribean.
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1360. amd
dry air combined with shear may make the new gfs and the bamm models correct in terms of the short and medium term movement with 94L.

I still don't see enough strengthening with 94L to allow for it to go more to the north.
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1359. ch2os
Quoting futurenavymet:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/frances2004.html i wont forget her she cause to have no power for a long time.


Are you the kid living in PSL who was under the name of futermet?
Member Since: August 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
1358. Grothar
Quoting cycloone:
is anyone paying attention to Jimena?!!??!!


Of course. Look at the previous blogs. Many of us are very concerned with the Baja region. Jimena is a potent system and according to the latest reports, it may even strengthen further. Very serious situation for many. As usual, people are mostly concerned with their area of the world, therefore the focus is on the Atlantic systems. Very understandable.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25986

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.