Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:51 AM GMT on August 30, 2009

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Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.


Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.


People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.

It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.


I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.


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Soon to be TD is picking up a beautiful moisture tap banding from the ITCZ. It can be seen clearly on the VIS loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Locally we ought to watch Gulf this week before worrying about 94L


Whacha seeing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's right. Don't come in here with ur Caribbean language.....
I know you are far too intelligent Baha to be serious.
If someone wants to post in Spanish on here to get information or exchange information, I have no problem with that, or Creole, or Portuguese for that matter. What happened to civility? This is the World Wide Web.
Speaking of crow, the issue reminds me of Jim Crow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Locally we ought to watch Gulf this week before worrying about 94L


will do....
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Long as it stays weak, more west and more longitude it goes, which the models will have to catch up to it, models shouldnt even be run on something that hasn't formed yet.
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I wonder why everyone dislikes Bastardi and WS? How come?
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1501. JLPR
goodnight 94L

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
ok i think everyone needs to listen this storm will maintain a wnw-nw track for the next couple of days if you look at water vapor imagery you can see the trough digging south and east which will induce a NW pull after that it is not even worth arguing where this will go. let me just put it this way if it gets into the eastern Caribbean it will be sheared apart before it even reaches the western Caribbean. right now the GOM is at the bottom of the list in terms of where 94L will go.
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Quoting Grothar:


thats looking more and more identical. i wont bet crows on it right now but yeah.
1498. flsky
Quoting WeatherStudent:


YW my friend.


Unbelievable!! Have you no shame?? If I were you I wouldn't show my face around here any more!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1913
1497. sngalla
Quoting WeatherStudent:


YW my friend.


You copied someone else's work. Shame on you!
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
Locally we ought to watch Gulf this week before worrying about 94L
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


YW my friend.


You are such a disgrace, if I were admin I would ban you for life with all of your nonsense information and copycat work..
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Quoting sporteguy03:


What's worse is it is old information and at this point inaccurate.


I fixed that problem a long time ago. If everybody put him on ignore, we would never have to read the garbage from him even in quotes.
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1493. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


What's worse is it is old information and at this point inaccurate.


I thought about that when I read it.

LOL...at least put the current coordinates on it.

Pathetic. I've got him on ignore or I would report him to admin.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Marine Forecast Discussion

A 1007 MB LOW...WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...IS OBSERVED E OF THE AREA NEAR 11N48W AT 1800
UTC WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. IT IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 13 KT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 14N52W EARLY MON AFTERNOON...NEAR
15N53W EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR 19N60W WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N
ATLC LATE THU AND FRI. INTERESTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876
1490. Grothar
Quoting futurenavymet:
anyone have frances history track and what she was supposed to do. if so tia.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1489. centex
For now TX is watching GOM, maybe something pop up locally, it can happen at anytime.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


What's worse is it is old information and at this point inaccurate.


Double OUCH!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


No, way to far out


ok, just was wondering...
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Lets it put it this way, something in the Gulf would happen first, before 94L were to get there
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1483. flsky
Quoting Acorna:
I'm up in NC and I'm more concerned about when we DO get a storm. I don't know if it will be 94L, or 95L when it develops, or if it even will be this year. But this area hasn't had a particuarly good blow in several years. Being a primarily military town (Jacksonville, NC), I think that a lot of the people that are here now have never been through a hurricane and will not know how to prepare. I know, at least, that neither of my neighbors have been through any sort of tropical system. One was outside during one of the few bands of Danny that we got, and she was amazed to see clouds coming off the ocean XD


I've been through 3 - not fun. Please help your neighbors be aware.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1913
Quoting hunkerdown:
english please
That's right. Don't come in here with ur Caribbean language.....
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Quoting IKE:


Definitely. Nice going WS. You should be banned for that. You copied someone else's work!


What's worse is it is old information and at this point inaccurate.
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Its COC could just leap north since it's still disorganized. Just a possibility.
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If I was Cuba and Florida I would
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Carribbean and Gulf of Mexico need to be watching 94L.

Trust me I'm keeping a close eye on it.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, but are you concerned about it (Texas wise) ?


No, way to far out
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets break it down folks, 94L has been projected to turn NW, where's this turn? it hasn't happened. So why would we keep thinking its gonna turn...it's defying the models/experts already, that means this one needs to be watched. NHC/models have no clue on this system and it shows.


ok, but are you concerned about it (Texas wise) ?
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1475. centex
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets break it down folks, 94L has been projected to turn NW, where's this turn? it hasn't happened. So why would we keep thinking its gonna turn...it's defying the models/experts already, that means this one needs to be watched. NHC/models have no clue on this system and it shows.
True but experts have pretty much written off models and not sure what it's going to do. Just because experts tell you what models say does not mean that is what they expect to happen.
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1474. Relix
NHC will probably grant it a TD status soon. Reason? Advirsories just in case. Wouldn't look good if they didn't do anything a suddenly a tropical storm formed. This happened with Jeanne as well I remember, though they named her one day before it made landfall on the antilles.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2648
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think when the NHC does make the call on 94L , they'll go straight TS status , jmo.

i think ya right stormpetrol.
Carribbean and Gulf of Mexico need to be watching 94L.
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I think when the NHC does make the call on 94L , they'll go straight TS status , jmo.
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1469. Acorna
I'm up in NC and I'm more concerned about when we DO get a storm. I don't know if it will be 94L, or 95L when it develops, or if it even will be this year. But this area hasn't had a particuarly good blow in several years. Being a primarily military town (Jacksonville, NC), I think that a lot of the people that are here now have never been through a hurricane and will not know how to prepare. I know, at least, that neither of my neighbors have been through any sort of tropical system. One was outside during one of the few bands of Danny that we got, and she was amazed to see clouds coming off the ocean XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
anyone have frances history track and what she was supposed to do. if so tia.
1467. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:
Good spot Brazocane (#1439).
He copied ED word for word, down to the misspelling of "aggressive."



Is there a way we can just get rid of him once and for all? On another note, I've noticed a "swirl" N of PR. Is this just a ULL?
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1913
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Here's my brief afternoon update on 94L, y'all. Enjoy!


At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W .More to come tonight, thanks.

More plagarism??
Something to look forward to, tonite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets break it down folks, 94L has been projected to turn NW, where's this turn? it hasn't happened. So why would we keep thinking its gonna turn...it's defying the models/experts already, that means this one needs to be watched. NHC/models have no clue on this system and it shows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. KBH
that is true, and therefore the model is only as good as the raw data it uses, plus the interpretation.I can see why Dr Masters and NHC have a high level of overall prediction
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1462. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


See posts #1365, 1378


Oh!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting brazocane:



Plagarism

Link


What? what... plagiarism? Is this true Weather Student? It is best to cite your work than to pretend to have produced it.
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1460. IKE
Quoting brazocane:



Plagarism

Link


Definitely. Nice going WS. You should be banned for that. You copied someone else's work!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
18z nam shifting west from the 12z run
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Quoting KBH:
thanks nrti, that's the data I was looking for, it's a lot but worth reviewing. Now considering I am an amatuer at reading storm data, what are the 10 most important criteria that determine direction and intensity of a storm system?


I don't know the answer to that question. The models assimalate a lot of data. Here is the data summary for the 12Z GFS.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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